Sunday, May 31, 2015

Fantasy Football - Anti-Sleepers 5-30-15

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Welcome back. This post represents the data run we did on 5 30 15. The first post were the list of players (sleepers) who were favored by the Insider experts vs the regular joes aka the outsiders. We now present the players that are the anti-sleepers. These players are currently favored significantly move by the Outsiders as compared to the Insider experts. Tables 1 to 3 present our data format.

The format for our tables are the name, position and team. The next columns are our specialized rankings. First we have the I SR (Insiders Scaled Ranking) vs O SR (Outsiders Scale Ranking).Note we have rated the players in the I and O worlds and established an average for all players (Avg I SR and AVG O SR) and then using that average number, we applied a scaled ranking procedure. We have color coded the players above and below the Avg I SR and Avg O SR. Red staining are those players below average in the two columns and green staining is reserved for those players above the average in those columns.

We also then compared the I SR and O SR by subtraction. We calculate the I/O difference in these two worlds of rankings per player (I SR- O SR) and assign a number, I/O Diff.We have sorted lowest to higher, the players into their positions using the I/O Diffs numbers. 

Using the calculated I/O Diffs we look across all the players in all positions and assign a mathematically scaled ranking based on the I/O Diffs, the novel I/O Diff Rankings. For example WR Victor Cruz at 186 is slightly better as compared to RB Theo Riddick at 189.

These tables contain those players as of 5/30/15 that are ranked lower by Insiders by least 5 pts as compared to outsiders group. These are the Anti-Sleepers. Public likes them more than the Pros.

So in Table 1 we have the WRs ranked as Anti-sleepers. The top anti-sleeper player is Victor Cruz at 186 worse than Kenny Stills at 183 etc. So remember we also used a color coded methods to rank players above or below the I SR number. So the highest ranked by the Pros and still an anti-sleeper is M. Bryant. with a 14.8 I SR rank but 181 I/O Diff Rank. Anti-sleeper are a risk to be a bust candidate relative to what the public thinks. M. Bryant is rated a 43 by the public vs a 14.8 by the Pros, a 3X difference. The higher the rank the higher the chance for a BUST relative to Public Drafting. M. Bryant will tend to go higher in draft than he should by 3X factor.

Table 1 Anti-Sleeper WRs
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Table 2 contains the RB Anti-sleepers. As per the previous discussions the top Bust candidate is Theo Riddick. Pros got him at -78 while the the Public has him at -25, a 3X difference in value. Thus he will be drafted higher than he should. Beware. DMC is a risk candidate for a BUST 5.5 vs 46 by the public, the Outsiders rate him 8X MORE!. Avoid him at a high level in the draft. Note the last anti-sleeper is Shady MC, note he is close to being an "about right" player. No reaching for him but don't let him slide either.

Lastly we have only one QB rated as anti-sleeper. Bradford is a risk as a bust. The public likes him a little more than the Pros.

Table 2 Anti-Sleeper RB and QB
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Table 3 are the anti-sleeper TE. TE is a wasteland after the top one Gronk. Note we are worried about OJ Thomas with a 187 anti-sleeper number. That is one of the top Bust candidates. Pros like him at 3 vs 46 for the public, That is 15X difference. Big! He is for sure going to over-drafted. As is most player on this list. The I/O Diff at -43 then D Allen and J Graham at -26s (1/2 ish less a risk than OJT!). Note M Bennett is almost an "about right" guy. Maybe a bargain?

Next Post will finish up the run of data. We introduce the "About Right" Players List. Solid picks at where everyone is agreeing they should be drafted at. 


Table 3 Anti-sleeper TE.
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Saturday, May 30, 2015

First Blog. Fantasy Football Rankings - The Sleeper Index 5_30_15


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This is our first post. We are beginning our footprint into this world of Fantasy Football. We present the data basis for what we call our "Sleeper Index".  Most sites hang their hats on the obvious choices and sprinkle in some sleepers. We present in Tables 1 to 4 (QB, RB, WR, and TE) a ranking of players that are being overlooked by the general population - the outsiders (O) while at the same time they are more higher ranked by the experts - Insiders (I).

The format for our tables are the name, position and team. The next columns are our specialized rankings. First we have the I SR (Insiders Scaled Ranking) vs O SR (Outsiders Scale Ranking).Note we have rated the players in the I and O worlds and established an average for all players (Avg I SR and AVG O SR) and then using that average number, we applied a scaled ranking procedure. We have color coded the players above and below the Avg I SR and Avg O SR. Red staining are those players below average in the two columns and green staining is reserved for those players above the average in those columns.

We also then compared the I SR and O SR by subtraction. We calculate the I/O difference in these two worlds of rankings per player (I SR- O SR) and assign a number, I/O Diff.We have sorted lowest to higher, the players into their positions using the I/O Diffs numbers. 

Using the calculated I/O Diffs we look across all the players in all positions and assign a mathematically scaled ranking based on the I/O Diffs, the novel I/O Diff Rankings.

These tables contain those players as of 5/30/15 that are ranked higher by Insiders by least 5 pts as compared to outsiders group. These are the Sleepers. The Pros like them more than the public.

So looking at Table 1, the QB, RG3 (15) is our predicted Top Sleeper by about 3X the level of  that of Marcus Mariota (41). Notice the I/O Diff is 71.8 then a drop to 31.8. That is a big difference.
Our I and O SR are color coded based on averages and suggest that data be part of your analysis. So Kaepernick is above average barely by ranked number 3 as a sleeper. Thus compared to the top two who are below the average, he might be the play here. Note Tannehill with a 35 and Newton with a 69.5 are even stronger plays. Please use all the data in a system approach to establish your sleepers. We invite you to use this data for achieving a "Crush-Worthy Victory" over the evil foes you will face in your league.

Table 1 QB Sleeper Index Ranks 5/30/15
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So in Table 2 we have the RB sleepers ranked. We have 2 very close together for the RB position, David Cobb and David Johnson 94.8 and 89.8 with a ranking of 4 vs 7. Note the drop down to Roy Helu at 62.4 and 18th ranked sleeper. Go through here and data dive. Note the Highest I SR that is in the green and still ranked as a good sleeper is TJ Yeldon with a 59 I SR, 38 I/O Diff and a 34 ranking overall or 6th ranked sleeper in the RBs.

Table 2. RB Sleeper Index Ranks 5/30/15
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Table 3 is the same treatments for WRs and is order by the top sleepers downward. Note the top groups of WR are below average in the red stain world but the "never to be drafted" D Bowe is close to averge and ranked as the 2nd WR sleeper in player rated higher by the Insiders. Eric Decker is the first green stained sleeper with a 34 I SR and 44 I/o Diff and a over rank of 28 or 8th ranked WR sleepers. he may be the play.

Table 3. WR Sleeper Index Ranks 5/30/15
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Finally we have the TE players ranked higher by I SR than the O SR in Table 4. So we see the gamble is to H Miller. He has been a solid TE in a poor TE landscape this year. If you miss out on the top few wait for him. He is ranked 1st in all the Sleepers in all skill positions. Its a bargain!.  Note he is only -8 below average so that should be a good sign. Drop all the way to Josh Hill In New Orleans to find an above average TE but he is down on the sleeper list. Could surprise so keep him, D Walker, J Witten and A Gates on your speed-dial while drafting.

Table 4. TE Sleeper Index Ranks 5/30/15
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