Sunday, May 31, 2015

Fantasy Football - Anti-Sleepers 5-30-15

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Welcome back. This post represents the data run we did on 5 30 15. The first post were the list of players (sleepers) who were favored by the Insider experts vs the regular joes aka the outsiders. We now present the players that are the anti-sleepers. These players are currently favored significantly move by the Outsiders as compared to the Insider experts. Tables 1 to 3 present our data format.

The format for our tables are the name, position and team. The next columns are our specialized rankings. First we have the I SR (Insiders Scaled Ranking) vs O SR (Outsiders Scale Ranking).Note we have rated the players in the I and O worlds and established an average for all players (Avg I SR and AVG O SR) and then using that average number, we applied a scaled ranking procedure. We have color coded the players above and below the Avg I SR and Avg O SR. Red staining are those players below average in the two columns and green staining is reserved for those players above the average in those columns.

We also then compared the I SR and O SR by subtraction. We calculate the I/O difference in these two worlds of rankings per player (I SR- O SR) and assign a number, I/O Diff.We have sorted lowest to higher, the players into their positions using the I/O Diffs numbers. 

Using the calculated I/O Diffs we look across all the players in all positions and assign a mathematically scaled ranking based on the I/O Diffs, the novel I/O Diff Rankings. For example WR Victor Cruz at 186 is slightly better as compared to RB Theo Riddick at 189.

These tables contain those players as of 5/30/15 that are ranked lower by Insiders by least 5 pts as compared to outsiders group. These are the Anti-Sleepers. Public likes them more than the Pros.

So in Table 1 we have the WRs ranked as Anti-sleepers. The top anti-sleeper player is Victor Cruz at 186 worse than Kenny Stills at 183 etc. So remember we also used a color coded methods to rank players above or below the I SR number. So the highest ranked by the Pros and still an anti-sleeper is M. Bryant. with a 14.8 I SR rank but 181 I/O Diff Rank. Anti-sleeper are a risk to be a bust candidate relative to what the public thinks. M. Bryant is rated a 43 by the public vs a 14.8 by the Pros, a 3X difference. The higher the rank the higher the chance for a BUST relative to Public Drafting. M. Bryant will tend to go higher in draft than he should by 3X factor.

Table 1 Anti-Sleeper WRs
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Table 2 contains the RB Anti-sleepers. As per the previous discussions the top Bust candidate is Theo Riddick. Pros got him at -78 while the the Public has him at -25, a 3X difference in value. Thus he will be drafted higher than he should. Beware. DMC is a risk candidate for a BUST 5.5 vs 46 by the public, the Outsiders rate him 8X MORE!. Avoid him at a high level in the draft. Note the last anti-sleeper is Shady MC, note he is close to being an "about right" player. No reaching for him but don't let him slide either.

Lastly we have only one QB rated as anti-sleeper. Bradford is a risk as a bust. The public likes him a little more than the Pros.

Table 2 Anti-Sleeper RB and QB
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Table 3 are the anti-sleeper TE. TE is a wasteland after the top one Gronk. Note we are worried about OJ Thomas with a 187 anti-sleeper number. That is one of the top Bust candidates. Pros like him at 3 vs 46 for the public, That is 15X difference. Big! He is for sure going to over-drafted. As is most player on this list. The I/O Diff at -43 then D Allen and J Graham at -26s (1/2 ish less a risk than OJT!). Note M Bennett is almost an "about right" guy. Maybe a bargain?

Next Post will finish up the run of data. We introduce the "About Right" Players List. Solid picks at where everyone is agreeing they should be drafted at. 

Table 3 Anti-sleeper TE.
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