Thursday, June 11, 2015

AFC West Team Analysis

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We Look at the AFC West. In TEAMs Table 1,  the side items are listed in order of the average of the team's skill players Insiders Rankings (AVG I SR), the team's skill player Outsiders Rankings (AVG O SR), the       teams players average difference between the I and O worlds, (I/O SR), The highest I SR scoring position (TOP), the worst scoring position, (BOTTOM), and the % number of skill players that have a positive I to O ratio using the I/O Diff number (DIFF Positives)

So in as you go down the side item metrics, get a sense of each team and their comparison to the other teams in the conference.

So looking at the Pros vs Joes we see all these Teams are ranked better by the Joes (Insiders) as a team than the Outsiders. DEN is at -8.7 and is slightly overbought by the Outsides, KC is also a -4.31 and is slight overbought, Oak is at + 25 and is ranked higher by the Insiders, finally SD is at +31.7 and is rated better by the Insiders. Before you get too excited the overall I SR ratings as 32 for DEN, 9.7 for SD, 3.85 for KC and finally at -11 for OAK. So Den is 3X higher than SD. So the SD Team rating is the best rating vs the Outsiders. We will expect some bargains there.

In Den, we see 4 weakly positives but 3 very negative players. M Ball is at -14, and C Latimer and O Daniels both at -25 ish. No bargains here. Do not reach for any of these. Top player is DT and bottom is MBall.

The KC team has 3 negative players and no real bargains. The negatives are the QB Smith, RB, K Davis, and A Wilson the WR2. Nothing really here to see. move on. The top player is JC and bottom is A Wilson.

In Oak, we do have the potential bargains in R Helu, M Crabtree, M Rivera. I would rank them higher but remember this is still Oak. Definitely we have gamble sleepers here. L Murray is at a -14 and should not be reached for. The top player is L Murray and bottom player is M Crabtree.

Given the SD team ranking, we see 2 more solid bargain sleepers in M Floyd and S Johnson. The Insider rank MF over SJ in -42 to -51. I would place them as WR3ish sleepers Also the other players are ranked positive and might be considered an suitable1/2 round reach for Rivers, Gates, K Allen and Woodhead. The Top player is is M Gordon and bottom is SJ WR.

Table 1. Team Analysis I/O Rankings. 

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My 3D heat-map (Table 2) is a quick overview of these 4 teams and should be used in a Flash Card Usage. So in Den the 3 negative guys are highlighted. In KC we see the same situation of 3 negative players. Oak we see the 3 positives with the RB1, WR1 and TE positions. SD has the 2 giant sleepers and I would look for them later in the draft.

Table 2. 3D Heat-map of the AFC West. 
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