Defense Against (DA)/ Strength of Schedule (SOS) NFC NORTH
Given the unknowns we are presenting our series of each group and their SOS. We use the SOS deferentially.
Early in the Drafting Season we look at our SOS landscapes illustrated by our charts. See the Tables Below. We identify big pictures on the division. (Good, Average, Hard). We look into the Teams in a chart form and have assigned a scale number from 60 (EASY) to 100 (HARD) to each opponent.
We are looking to predict several things:
A) the "fate flow" of the team. - Even, E or H early, E or H mid, and E or H in playoff weeks (14 to 16 ish). We included week 17 in case you need that.
B) We look for "slides" or "climbs". Slides are a series of 4 easy teams to face while climbs are 4 hard teams to face.
C) We grade the Playoff weeks for a pattern EEE to HHH or in-between.
We believe that climbs and slides can be signals to use the waiver wire, trade, drop players. It is not the only source of signals but should add to your FOR/AGAINST evidence for testing multiple hypothesis. See my ground breaking blog on that never before published concept.
We believe that Fate Flow/ Playoff patterns, climbs and slides all can be noted on your draft board and can be used in breaking ties between players. I use the old colored pencils on my ranks.
In all these next Blogs on the DA/SOS we present the overall numbers.Table 1 is the Overall Numbers for the SOS numbers. The ALL Table shows a median number for all teams at 80 with the average at 79.3 +- 8.7 SD. So 66% of the data should fall between 70.6 and 88. So remember this and really key on situations above or below those numbers.
AFC numbers 79.6 +- 8.46 and NFC is 79.8 +- 8.9. Not much here.
AFC Divisions 1) North is 82.2
2) East is 79.5
3) West is 78.7
4) South is at 76.5
So I have placed these in order from harder to easier. AFC South vs AFC North could be a for sure tie breaker. I am looking for sleepers in the South vs downgrading those in the North.
NFC Divisions 1) West is 82.2
2) North is 80
3) East is 77.9
4) South is 75.4
So I have placed these in order from harder to easier. NFC West vs NFC South and East as well.
Use these as general guides to grade out your players.
Table 1 SOS Average with SD and Median for ALL, AFC, NFC and their Divisions.
In the NFC North the Teams Average are nearly the same around 79 to 80, which is a very hard division vs the East and South. In Table 2, the analysis of the data shows that CHI has a long hard climb from game one till the playoffs in week 14. So that would be a bright spot for your CHI players. DET has a slight easier route but a serious 3 week climb in weeks 3, 4 and 5 as well as hard games before and after the bye. The playoffs are for DET are a HAH pattern vs CHI with a EAA pattern.
Table 2. SOS for the NFC NORTH Teams- CHI and DET.
In Table 3, analysis of the data patterns should both GB and MIN have hard climbs. GB has an easy time for week 1 but has a 4 game climb against hard defenses. The have a easy game before the bye but after the bye they hard a 3 game hard climb. For week 11 onward they have more easy weeks than hard. The GB playoff pattern is AEH. In MIN, they have a 3 out of 4 hard climb into the week 5 bye but come out from the Bye with a hard 2 weeks. They next weeks are about 60-40% Hard to easy weeks and MIN has a playoff pattern of HEA with the week 16 being very close to an easy as well. Keep this in mind.