Defense Against (DA)/ Strength of Schedule (SOS).
Given the unknowns we are presenting our series of each group and their SOS. We use the SOS deferentially.
Early in the Drafting Season we look at our SOS landscapes illustrated by our charts. See the Tables Below. We identify big pictures on the division. (Good, Average, Hard). We look into the Teams in a chart form and have assigned a scale number from 60 (EASY) to 100 (HARD) to each opponent.
We are looking to predict several things:
A) the "fate flow" of the team. - Even, E or H early, E or H mid, and E or H in playoff weeks (14 to 16 ish). We included week 17 in case you need that.
B) We look for "slides" or "climbs". Slides are a series of 4 easy teams to face while climbs are 4 hard teams to face.
C) We grade the Playoff weeks for a pattern EEE to HHH or in-between.
We believe that climbs and slides can be signals to use the waiver wire, trade, drop players. It is not the only source of signals but should add to your FOR/AGAINST evidence for testing multiple hypothesis. See my ground breaking blog on that never before published concept.
We believe that Fate Flow/ Playoff patterns, climbs and slides all can be noted on your draft board and can be used in breaking ties between players. I use the old colored pencils on my ranks.
In all these next Blogs on the DA/SOS we present the overall numbers.Table 1 is the Overall Numbers for the SOS numbers. The ALL Table shows a median number for all teams at 80 with the average at 79.3 +- 8.7 SD. So 66% of the data should fall between 70.6 and 88. So remember this and really key on situations above or below those numbers.
AFC numbers 79.6 +- 8.46 and NFC is 79.8 +- 8.9. Not much here.
AFC Divisions 1) North is 82.2
2) East is 79.5
3) West is 78.7
4) South is at 76.5
So I have placed these in order from harder to easier. AFC South vs AFC North could be a for sure tie breaker. I am looking for sleepers in the South vs downgrading those in the North.
NFC Divisions 1) West is 82.2
2) North is 80
3) East is 77.9
4) South is 75.4
So I have placed these in order from harder to easier. NFC West vs NFC South and East as well.
Use these as general guides to grade out your players.
NYG has a easy roll into the week 4 with AAE pattern but then it hits HHH followed by AAA and H into the bye. After the bye its a Hard stretch. Their playoffs are HHA. You might catch a get drop or trade after week 3 and after week 6. I would not look for smooth sailing for either team during the playoffs
Table 2. SOS of DAL and NYG from the NFC EAST
PHI has a good stretch early with only 2 H games into its bye. After the bye it has a bumpy ride till week 16 with the easy WAS team as their opponents. Any players that are you are on the fence about should be dropped after week 12 for that tough stretch and look for anyone who is dropped for use in week 16 of your playoffs. The Playoff pattern is HHE.
WAS has a hard set of games into its bye but it gets better from week 10 to 14. The Playoff pattern is AHH. Be aware of this early hard stretch and look for players that will be benefiting from week 10 to 14.
Table 3. SOS of PHI and WAS from the NFC EAST