Defense Strength Against (DA)/ Strength of Schedule (SOS) - NFC SOUTH
Given the unknowns we are presenting our series of each group and their SOS. We use the SOS deferentially.
Early in the Drafting Season we look at our SOS landscapes illustrated by our charts. See the Tables Below. We identify big pictures on the division. (Good, Average, Hard). We look into the Teams in a chart form and have assigned a scale number from 60 (EASY) to 100 (HARD) to each opponent.
We are looking to predict several things:
A) the "fate flow" of the team. - Even, E or H early, E or H mid, and E or H in playoff weeks (14 to 16 ish). We included week 17 in case you need that.
B) We look for "slides" or "climbs". Slides are a series of 4 easy teams to face while climbs are 4 hard teams to face.
C) We grade the Playoff weeks for a pattern EEE to HHH or in-between.
We believe that climbs and slides can be signals to use the waiver wire, trade, drop players. It is not the only source of signals but should add to your FOR/AGAINST evidence for testing multiple hypothesis. See my ground breaking blog on that never before published concept.
We believe that Fate Flow/ Playoff patterns, climbs and slides all can be noted on your draft board and can be used in breaking ties between players. I use the old colored pencils on my ranks.
In all these next Blogs on the DA/SOS we present the overall numbers.Table 1 is the Overall Numbers for the SOS numbers. The ALL Table shows a median number for all teams at 80 with the average at 79.3 +- 8.7 SD. So 66% of the data should fall between 70.6 and 88. So remember this and really key on situations above or below those numbers.
AFC numbers 79.6 +- 8.46 and NFC is 79.8 +- 8.9. Not much here.
AFC Divisions 1) North is 82.2
2) East is 79.5
3) West is 78.7
4) South is at 76.5
So I have placed these in order from harder to easier. AFC South vs AFC North could be a for sure tie breaker. I am looking for sleepers in the South vs downgrading those in the North.
NFC Divisions 1) West is 82.2
2) North is 80
3) East is 77.9
4) South is 75.4
So I have placed these in order from harder to easier. NFC West vs NFC South and East as well.
Use these as general guides to grade out your players.
Table 1 SOS Average with SD and Median for ALL, AFC, NFC and their Divisions.
This is the easy NFC division with averages of near 75 vs 77 in the East, 80 in the North and 82 in the West.
In Table 2 we focus deeper into ATL and CAR.
In ATL the fate flow seems harder early and late. Note we find a slide in the ATL chart in weeks 5 to 8. So trade going into the BYE or grab early weeks 3 or 4 ready for the slide weeks. Note the Playoffs are H_A_H.
In CAR out flow fate is hard into a easy way. They will be in the heavy weeds right after the bye into week 9. But they get a long long slide into the through the playoffs . KB should get a great block of games to take it to the bank! Cam as well. Wake Up folks!
Table 2. SOS for the NFC SOUTH Teams- ATL and CAR.
So the CAR wins that matchup.
In the NO vs TB matchup, we see in NO their fate flow will be tougher early, easy up into the bye and it gets tough until week 14 and 16. Their playoff is EHE pattern. NO has a nice slide from week 6 into the bye. SO its a sell before the bye or doing the bye week. Trade values should be high then. The flip side is a buy now for NO in weeks 4 or 5 before the slide.
TB has a a good run after the bye and goes into that slide into week 10 so. Their Playoffs are EHE as was NO. Its a buy now in week 4 or 5 going into the Bye. Now we could stretch that slide onward to week 14 with PHI at week 11 as the hardest team to face.
So its a closer match up and It goes to NO based on the players on that team vs TB. TB is still a fertile ground for sleeper shopping.