Defense Against (DA)/ Strength of Schedule (SOS).
Given the unknowns we are presenting our series of each group and their SOS. We use the SOS deferentially.
Early in the Drafting Season we look at our SOS landscapes illustrated by our charts. See the Tables Below. We identify big pictures on the division. (Good, Average, Hard). We look into the Teams in a chart form and have assigned a scale number from 60 (EASY) to 100 (HARD) to each opponent.
We are looking to predict several things:
A) the "fate flow" of the team. - Even, E or H early, E or H mid, and E or H in playoff weeks (14 to 16 ish). We included week 17 in case you need that.
B) We look for "slides" or "climbs". Slides are a series of 4 easy teams to face while climbs are 4 hard teams to face.
C) We grade the Playoff weeks for a pattern EEE to HHH or in-between.
We believe that climbs and slides can be signals to use the waiver wire, trade, drop players. It is not the only source of signals but should add to your FOR/AGAINST evidence for testing multiple hypothesis. See my ground breaking blog on that never before published concept.
We believe that Fate Flow/ Playoff patterns, climbs and slides all can be noted on your draft board and can be used in breaking ties between players. I use the old colored pencils on my ranks.
In all these next Blogs on the DA/SOS we present the overall numbers.Table 1 is the Overall Numbers for the SOS numbers. The ALL Table shows a median number for all teams at 80 with the average at 79.3 +- 8.7 SD. So 66% of the data should fall between 70.6 and 88. So remember this and really key on situations above or below those numbers.
AFC numbers 79.6 +- 8.46 and NFC is 79.8 +- 8.9. Not much here.
AFC Divisions 1) North is 82.2
2) East is 79.5
3) West is 78.7
4) South is at 76.5
So I have placed these in order from harder to easier. AFC South vs AFC North could be a for sure tie breaker. I am looking for sleepers in the South vs downgrading those in the North.
NFC Divisions 1) West is 82.2
2) North is 80
3) East is 77.9
4) South is 75.4
So I have placed these in order from harder to easier. NFC West vs NFC South and East as well.
Use these as general guides to grade out your players.
Table 1 SOS Average with SD and Median for ALL, AFC, NFC and their Divisions.
In Table 2 and 3 are the Team SOS stats. The NFC west have the hardest SOS vs the other 3 NFC divisions. So you can expect any players that are not the studs are in for a uphill climb. So in those rounds we aware of the SOS.
Table 2 presents SEA and ARI SOS. SEA has a tough show and faces 4 hard weeks for 4 to 7. They get a easier game going into the BYE. They come out into 2 more hard games in 10 and 11. This is followed by 2 average games and in the playoff have a HAH pattern.
In ARI that team starts with 2 easy-type games followed by 3 hard, 2 avg and 1 hard game into the bye. Coming out of the BYE ARI has a hard way to the playoffs. In the playoffs they have a AHH.
Nothing but pain here!
Table 2 . Defense Strength Against -NFC WEST SEA and ARI
In Table 3 we have STL and SF. Note SF has the highest 83.3 SOS.
In STL they have 3 Hard and 2 Avg SOS games into the Bye and coming out they have easier way to week 11. Week 11 to 14 are all Hard rated. The Playoffs have a HAH pattern.
In SF they have 2 Avg games and go on a 5 out of 7 Hard game stretch to the bye. Out of the bye its all hard except for an average game in week 13. The playoffs are HHH.
Nothing easy here as well.