Defense Against (DA)/ Strength of Schedule (SOS).
Given the unknowns we are presenting our series of each group and their SOS. We use the SOS deferentially.
Early in the Drafting Season we look at our SOS landscapes illustrated by our charts. See the Tables Below. We identify big pictures on the division. (Good, Average, Hard). We look into the Teams in a chart form and have assigned a scale number from 60 (EASY) to 100 (HARD) to each opponent.
We are looking to predict several things:
A) the "fate flow" of the team. - Even, E or H early, E or H mid, and E or H in playoff weeks (14 to 16 ish). We included week 17 in case you need that.
B) We look for "slides" or "climbs". Slides are a series of 4 easy teams to face while climbs are 4 hard teams to face.
C) We grade the Playoff weeks for a pattern EEE to HHH or in-between.
We believe that climbs and slides can be signals to use the waiver wire, trade, drop players. It is not the only source of signals but should add to your FOR/AGAINST evidence for testing multiple hypothesis. See my ground breaking blog on that never before published concept.
We believe that Fate Flow/ Playoff patterns, climbs and slides all can be noted on your draft board and can be used in breaking ties between players. I use the old colored pencils on my ranks.
In all these next Blogs on the DA/SOS we present the overall numbers.Table 1 is the Overall Numbers for the SOS numbers. The ALL Table shows a median number for all teams at 80 with the average at 79.3 +- 8.7 SD. So 66% of the data should fall between 70.6 and 88. So remember this and really key on situations above or below those numbers.
AFC numbers 79.6 +- 8.46 and NFC is 79.8 +- 8.9. Not much here.
AFC Divisions 1) North is 82.2
2) East is 79.5
3) West is 78.7
4) South is at 76.5
So I have placed these in order from harder to easier. AFC South vs AFC North could be a for sure tie breaker. I am looking for sleepers in the South vs downgrading those in the North.
NFC Divisions 1) West is 82.2
2) North is 80
3) East is 77.9
4) South is 75.4
So I have placed these in order from harder to easier. NFC West vs NFC South and East as well.
Use these as general guides to grade out your players.
Table 1 SOS Average with SD and Median for ALL, AFC, NFC and their Divisions.
This division has the second worst SOS with an average of 79.5. NE and NYJ have roughly the same SOS.
As seen in table 2, in NE they start off with a AHA going into the bye. They continue out of the break facing some average Defenses. Weeks 7 and 8 are hard SOS and 9 and 10 are Easy and Average. Weeks 11 to 16 we see they face 4 Hards, 1 Average and 1 Easy. The playoff pattern is HEH. I did mark a stretch in the chart from 5 to 10 as the Hards at week 7 and 8 are bottom of the Hard Defense range. So you should be aware of this and use it to you advantage.
Table 2. Defense Strength Against -AFC EAST NE and NYJ
In Table 3 we notice the averages are about the same near 79 SOS.
BUF has a first 3 weeks of AHH but has a favorable stretch from 4 to the bye in week 8. Coming out of the BYE they face 6 Hard games. In the playoff they have a Low H, AA pattern. That is a good playoff pattern.
MIA has 2 A defenses to face and have 2 Hard games into the bye. They get an easy game in week 6 but the next 7 weeks are 6H and 1 A. Their playoffs are good with a AAA pattern.