Defense Strength Against (DA)/ Strength of Schedule (SOS)-AFC SOUTH

Defense Data

Defense Against (DA)/ Strength of Schedule (SOS). 

Given the unknowns we are presenting our series of each group and their SOS. We use the SOS deferentially.

Early in the Drafting Season we look at our SOS landscapes illustrated by our charts. See the Tables Below. We identify big pictures on the division. (Good, Average, Hard). We look into the Teams in a chart form and have assigned a scale number from 60 (EASY) to 100 (HARD) to each opponent. 

We are looking to predict several things:

A) the "fate flow" of the team. - Even, E or H early, E or H mid, and E or H in playoff weeks (14 to 16 ish). We included week 17 in case you need that.

B) We look for "slides" or "climbs". Slides are a series of 4 easy teams to face while climbs are 4 hard teams to face.

C) We grade the Playoff weeks for a pattern EEE to HHH or in-between.

We believe that climbs and slides can be signals to use the waiver wire, trade, drop players. It is not the only source of signals but should add to your FOR/AGAINST evidence for testing multiple hypothesis. See my ground breaking blog on that never before published concept.

We believe that Fate Flow/ Playoff patterns, climbs and slides all can be noted on your draft board and can be used in breaking ties between players. I use the old colored pencils on my ranks.

In all these next Blogs on the DA/SOS we present the overall numbers.Table 1 is the Overall Numbers for the SOS numbers. The ALL Table shows a median number for all teams at 80 with the average at 79.3 +- 8.7 SD. So 66% of the data should fall between 70.6 and 88. So remember this and really key on situations above or below those numbers.

AFC numbers 79.6 +- 8.46  and NFC is 79.8 +- 8.9. Not much here.

AFC Divisions     1) North  is   82.2
                           2) East    is    79.5
                           3) West   is   78.7
                           4) South  is at 76.5

So I have placed these in order from harder to easier. AFC South vs AFC North could be a for sure tie breaker. I am looking for sleepers in the South vs downgrading those in the North.

NFC Divisions    1) West  is 82.2
                           2) North is 80
                           3) East  is 77.9
                           4) South is 75.4

So I have placed these in order from harder to easier. NFC West vs NFC South and East as well.
Use these as general guides to grade out your players.

Table 1 SOS Average with SD and Median for ALL, AFC, NFC and their Divisions. 

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Table 2. Defense Strength Against -AFC SOUTH HOU and IND

This group has the lowest average of SOS in the AFC. HOU has the lowest of the low at 76.9.

HOU has 2 Hard games, followed by a favorable week 3 to 6 with an average rating. A good stretch to use for various purposes. They have a HE pattern into the bye and they come out of the bye into the playoff with HHEH pattern. The playoffs are HAE pattern which is a favorable pattern later in the playoff. remember that.

IND has a harder average first part in weeks 1 to 9 with 6 H, 1A and 2E games. Coming out of the bye they a nice stretch of 4 A games into the week 15. However, weeks 15 and 16 are hard games. 

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Table 3.  Defense Strength Against -AFC SOUTH JAX and TEN 

JAX has 6 hard and 2 average games into the week 8 bye. They have 2 hard games in week 9 and 10. However, the good news is JAX has a great stretch from Week 11 to 16. A very longer stretch. If the JAX team can get it together they will have a nice favorable stretch. Draft for the later easier schedule for the JAX team. 

TEN has a good opening 3 week with AHA pattern into the bye. Out of the bye they have 2 hard games and up and down to week 11. Weeks 11 to 13 includes an easier stretch 3 weeks. The big issue is the Playoff week which are all 3 hard games. Given the issues with TEN this is another reason to be cautious with players from TEN.

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