Defense Strength Against (DA)/ Strength of Schedule (SOS)-AFC NORTH

Defense Data

Defense Against (DA)/ Strength of Schedule (SOS). 

Given the unknowns we are presenting our series of each group and their SOS. We use the SOS deferentially.

Early in the Drafting Season we look at our SOS landscapes illustrated by our charts. See the Tables Below. We identify big pictures on the division. (Good, Average, Hard). We look into the Teams in a chart form and have assigned a scale number from 60 (EASY) to 100 (HARD) to each opponent. 

We are looking to predict several things:

A) the "fate flow" of the team. - Even, E or H early, E or H mid, and E or H in playoff weeks
       (14 to 16 ish). We included week 17 in case you need that.

B) We look for "slides" or "climbs". Slides are a series of 4 easy teams to face while climbs are
       4 hard teams to face.

C) We grade the Playoff weeks for a pattern EEE to HHH or in-between.

We believe that climbs and slides can be signals to use the waiver wire, trade, drop players. It is not the only source of signals but should add to your FOR/AGAINST evidence for testing multiple hypothesis. See my ground breaking blog on that never before published concept.

We believe that Fate Flow/ Playoff patterns, climbs and slides all can be noted on your draft board and can be used in breaking ties between players. I use the old colored pencils on my ranks.

In all these next Blogs on the DA/SOS we present the overall numbers.Table 1 is the Overall Numbers for the SOS numbers. The ALL Table shows a median number for all teams at 80 with the average at 79.3 +- 8.7 SD. So 66% of the data should fall between 70.6 and 88. So remember this and really key on situations above or below those numbers.

AFC numbers 79.6 +- 8.46  and NFC is 79.8 +- 8.9. Not much here.

AFC Divisions   1) North  is   82.2
                           2) East    is    79.5
                           3) West   is   78.7
                           4) South  is at 76.5

So I have placed these in order from harder to easier. AFC South vs AFC North could be a for sure tie breaker. I am looking for sleepers in the South vs downgrading those in the North.

NFC Divisions   1) West  is 82.2
                           2) North is 80
                           3) East  is 77.9
                           4) South is 75.4

So I have placed these in order from harder to easier. NFC West vs NFC South and East as well.
Use these as general guides to grade out your players.

Table 1 SOS Average with SD and Median for ALL, AFC, NFC and their Divisions. 

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Table 2. Defense Strength Against -AFC NORTH BAL and CIN

The AFC NORTH has the hardest SOS of the AFC with an average of 82. CIN has the hardest route with an average of 83.3.

CIN does start out with 2 early easier games. But it goes on a 5 game ANTI-Good stretch into the bye. They come out of the bye with 2 average games and then another 4 hard games from week 10 to 13. The playoffs are hard as well with an AHH pattern. AJ Green is going to have to earn his stats as is Dalton.

BAL has no good stretches of more than 2 games but their games before the bye are 4H, 3A and 1 E. They have out of the bye a stretch of 6 Hard games deep into the playoffs. The playoff pattern is HHA. 

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Table 3. Defense Strength Against -AFC NORTH CLE and PIT

CLE has a little good stretch from week 2 to 4 but that is it. They have a hard way all the way through the playoff (HHH pattern).

PIT has a hard schedule as well with all Hard games in the playoffs (HHH pattern). They have a little relief on weeks 5, 9, 10 and 13. AEAA pattern here on these week. That is it. A Brown and Big Ben will be under the gun this year. 

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