Sunday, June 7, 2015

NFC South. TEAM Analysis

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In TEAMs Table 1,  the side items are listed in order of the average of the team's skill players Insiders Rankings (AVG I SR), the team's skill player Outsiders Rankings (AVG O SR), the  teams players average difference between the I and O worlds, (I/O SR), The highest I SR scoring position (TOP), the worst scoring position, (BOTTOM), and the % number of skill players that have a positive I to O ratio using the I/O Diff number (DIFF Positives)

So in as you go down the side item metrics, get a sense of each team and their comparison to the other teams in the conference.

So looking at the Pros vs Joes we see all these Teams are ranked better by the Joes (Insiders) as a team than the Outsiders. NO is the top with an I/O Diff Avg of a 16.4, followed by CAR at a 11.3, TB at a 9 and finally ATL at a 4.4. So NO is the least overbought Team by the public.

In ATL we have the closest rankings between the I/O worlds. So not a lot of surprises. We see only Tevin Cloeman as a very positive slight sleeper? at 27. Solid Solid pick here. Note D Freeman is seen by the Insiders at a 7.8 while the public overbuys him at 24. Big difference so you have an advantage in knowing that. Dont reach at all for DF but look for a later round TC. The top player is JJ and the weakest is the TE.

In CAR, surprisingly, CAM is a bargain! Pros rank him at 30 while the public sees him as a 3. Big advantage. GO the TE is alittle overbought but not really (63 to 67).  The top player is KB WR and the WR of DF is the lowest.

In NO we are expecting some baragins and we see MC the WR at a 38 I/O difference and Josh Hill at a 42.5 I/O Diff. MC to me is a low WR2 but has a solid record to allow me to take him. JH is a TE that I might pair with another upside TE to stream them. Brees is still top player and has a Diff of 16 ish. Good! He is QB1 all day long. I would pick him at the 3 to 5 range of QBs. Note BC is higher rated than MC as the WR1 but he is overbought and could continue to be an overbought pick. I would not reach for him but let him come to me in the Draft.

Finally in TB we have only one bargain in the TE position but again his -20 ranking is off-putting. Note we have 2 overbought guys in the QB and D Martin the RB. I would like others reach for them. The top player is Evans at 78 but the QB is the weakest player. So how can we like a WR with a QB that is a rookie? Evan is not a reach but I would draft hoping for a WR1 but thinking the floor is a WR2.  Lastly, Sims is a RB that is ranked 18 which is a good RB2 candidate. No reaching though.

Table 1 NFC South Analysis. 

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So the 3D heat-map in Table 2, lets you look across the teams and this division. So we have CAM as the QB, TC as a RB sleeper from ATL. NO has MC as a solid WR2 and a solid sleeper TE JH.  We see negatives as well in the RBs from ATL, NO and TB. Keep awake on these issues.

Table 2 3D Heat-map of NFC South. 
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