Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Pivot Players: Leading to Multiple Hypothesis Solutions in Fantasy Football

Below is an excerpt from my previous blog on multiple hypothesis solutions for FF.

Question: This post deals with how do you know if a player is a KEY player? 

Answer : A KEY player can be a "Pivot Player"


Step by Step for Analysis of Fantasy Football Drafting - Hypothesis driven.

Step 1. Identify all the different hypothesis to be considered for a key/pivot player. Use ADPs and my analysis to look at the possibilities.  

Step 1A). 

So who are your Key Players that need this process? I think they are good players in "bad situations", good players in competition situations, players that are good but seem to injured alot, etc. 

You I assume are a serious player if you are reading this. So you need to develop a slate of players in these or other situations. 

Step 1B).

Write down the alternative hypothesis for each player. A minimum of 2 possibilities always exists. SUX or Not SUX. So how many possibilities exist.

***Research suggests that decision aids have the potential to drastically transform the way in which Fantasy football data consumer s search for player and team "product information" and make "purchase decisions" (Draft, Trades, or Waiver Pickups).***

Table 1 is my decision aid to locate pivot players. I define pivot players as those that my draft is based around. Until I do mock drafting I usually am not (Deeply) aware of these players. 

Using ADP draft-boards as decision aids I present in Table 1 a

 method to highlight to me my pivot players.

Pick 1 in a ADP base PPR Mock. 

First is a simple pivot JC vs AB question. So I need to use my 

methods in the previous blog post to deal with that question. So this 

is more a pivot question " What direction do I go" Early RB or 


In Table 1 I have listed by first 3 picks unranked with % etc in 6 

different directions. 

Alshon Jeffery is my Pivot player! 

I have been spending too much on the pivot question JC vs AB!

Explore/Rank my Different Hypothesis. 

BIG QUESTION __   Is AJ worth being a pivot player?

Next Big Question - What happens if he is drafted?

            I have listed TY vs KB as targets. 
            If AJ is gone do I take both? 

                     Explore/Rank my Different Hypothesis. 

I leave you with this process then.  :) 

Table 1 Decision Aid to find Pivot Players

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