Friday, July 31, 2015

Fantasy Sports Professors____(FSP) _____TE and QBs___ PPR Rankings Pre-Camp___Novel Scaled Rankings and Tiers

Fantasy Sports Professors (FSP) TE and QBs 

PPR Rankings Pre-Camp. Novel Scaled Rankings and Tiers 

We present our own rankings at the TEs and QBs positions. We have given Tiers, Player Name, Our Numerical Rankings (FSP Rankings), Scaled Projection Rankings, Projection Tiers. We have included a graphical look at this data as well. Its important to use both. Mere numbers can not show you the strength of the player's projected season points.

So in table one we see Gronk is worth 2X ish more than Graham and 9X more than Kelce. But we rank them 1 2 and 3. So having projections of "WORTH" tell a different story.
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Thursday, July 30, 2015

Fantasy Sports Professors____(FSP) _____WR___ PPR Rankings Pre-Camp___Novel Scaled Rankings and Tiers

Fantasy Sports Professors (FSP) WR PPR Rankings Pre-Camp. Novel Scaled Rankings and Tiers 

We present our own rankings at the WR position. We have given Tiers, Player Name, Our Numerical Rankings (FSP Rankings), Scaled Projection Rankings, Projection Tiers. We have included a graphical look at this data as well. Its important to use both. Mere numbers can not show you the strength of the player's project season points.

So for example Antonio Brown is a WR1 and Our FSP  Number 1 and has a 0.01 PPR scale ranking. That is right now 12 X as good as Julio Jones. Bold projection! 

So JJ vs DEZ is a 0.12  to  0.16 rankings. Not a big difference! 25% Diff! . 

AB vs JJ is 90% ish better. Note the scale! So calling JJ the number 2 vs AB as 1 does not present the true opinion. Be Bold!

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Wednesday, July 29, 2015

A Prefect Draft Pick (1st through 12th) vs Current Projections Part 2

A Prefect Draft Pick (1st through 12th) vs Current Projections Part 2

This is part 2 of our data on a prefect draft.

Questions. 


"What does your team look like if your blindly use ADP/Projections in terms of Positions drafted?"

"What is the "sweet spot" in the current draft ADP lined up draft?"

"If all players were lined up with ADP what positions will you draft?"

Table 1 below list your draft position followed by the positions. We convert the numbers into "heat maps" with green is the high and red is the low.

For example

Draft 1 then, You will naturally land on 8 RB, 1QB, 2 WR and 3 TEs on your 14 player team.

So we can say that Draft Pick 1, 8, 9 10 are the best to land on RBs and Draft Pick 2, 7 are the worst for RBs. In drafts then where you can pick your spot, this data (Update of course) can give you an insight into looking for RBs! (Std scoring?)

So the oppositie is the WR heavy draft picks. Draft pick 2, 7, and 11 are the best for landing on the most WRs! PPR scoring!

For TEs draft pick 5 is the best! and Draft pick 7 for QBs! photo Slide4_zpsp4bm6zrs.jpg
Table 2 shows the average projection points for each draft pick! Done for PPR projections!

Not a surprise, its draft pick 7 and 2 (see above). It is nice to "see data" to be balanced between Table 1 and 2. Sweet!!

Note draft pick 11 was predicted to be WR heavy but it looks like these are the weaker WRs in projections!.

Use the 2 tables together then!
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Table 3 Just shows the avg points for each position! These number are in play in the data in table 4.
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Table 4 uses not the ADP as a focus but our projections! We totaled the positions drafted by the draft pick and calculated the average of the player's projections. We then used the average projections of all QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs (See Table 3) in a "heat map" analysis. Green is above the grand average!

So looking across the draft picks the best QBs are naturally grabbed with Draft Pick 10. QB heavy leaques then! RBs is actually at the draft 2 pick. So the Table 1 and 2 data does not tell the whole story! WRs are Pick 1 and 12. TEs are pick 7 as well.

We also include the points ratios RB to WR points vs WR to Rb points. Draft pick 2 is great RB and Draft pick 12 is the best for WRs! Continue your lessons here buy think slow about the entire data here.

As usual no one we have seen on the expert sites is thinking about this topic! Enjoy!
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Tuesday, July 28, 2015

A Prefect Draft Pick (1st through 12th) vs Current Projections Part 1

A Prefect Draft Pick (1st through 12th) vs Current Projections Part 1 

We decide to use the current season projections and combine that with current ADP. Our spreadsheet was labeled by draft picks 1 to 12 then 12 to 1. This allow us to pick players for our teams

We used a 1st Draft Situation in these teams


Team 1 is below

We used the pattern WR WR QB/TE TE/QB RB RB....best. A Zero RB situation!

The averages for this pattern is at the bottom (Avg Pts =141 and Avg ADP 94)
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We flipping the pattern and grabbed RB RB QB/TE TE/QB WR WR...... for Team 2

The average was 144 Points and 93.6 ADP. Note a little better than above!
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We constructed this team as the top player via season points. After pick 1 we could scan the players below the draft position into the next round and select the top points player for TEAM 3. Best Available!

Averages are 150 and 93.3 the best so this suggest that best available is a better way than just blindly using the ADP. Projections have their use in this way.


FYI We will be putting out our Rankings Pre-Camp. We use "Adjusted" Projections as our way!



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Monday, July 27, 2015

First vs Next String WRs_Diff Stats (Pros vs Joes) and Scaled Expert Ranking

First vs Next String WRs_Diff Stats (Pros vs Joes) and Scaled Expert Ranking

Data is king. Here is a list of the WR1s for every team.

We rate by our DIFF score and used color coding with lime green very good to deep red not good. Remember we are comparing Experts to the Public.

We also included our scaled rankings of the player with the same color scheme. We removed numbers because until we see training camps etc, we need a soft anchored approach to thinking about these players.

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This is a list of the WRs not number one on the depth chart. An example of 3 Predictable WRs that are being overlooked by the public yet the experts rank fairly well. A. Boldin, P. Garcon, and M. Colston.

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Sunday, July 26, 2015

FIRST vs Second String RBs_DIFF Stats (Pros vs Joes) and Current Scaled Ranks (Pros)

FIRST vs Second String RBs_DIFF Stats (Pros vs Joes) and Current Scaled Ranks (Pros)

Data is king. Here is a list of the RB1s for every team.

We rate by our DIFF score and used color coding with lime green very good to deep red not good. Remember we are comparing Experts to the Public.

We also included our scaled rankings of the player with the same color scheme. We removed numbers because until we see training camps etc, we need a soft anchored approach to thinking about these players.

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We in table 2 present the RB 2s etc for each team. Same scheme as above. So we will rate Danny Woodhead better than C Michael. We would suggest that DMC is ranked high but overvalued as would suggest you watch for early reaches for him. These are examples. Go through and let it all soak in. Do mocks and use these to see these players are going. This is a good decision aid.
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Saturday, July 25, 2015

Graphical Analysis of the First Six Draft Rounds in Best Ball, Dynasty PPR, Redraft PPR, STD, and 2-QB Leagues

Graphical Analysis of the First Six Draft Rounds in Best Ball, Dynasty PPR, Redraft PPR, STD, and 2-QB Leagues  


We were wondering what the big picture looked like? Here is the data. We blocked each league type by dashed black lines and each round by solid line. We could tell you our observation but we prefer you work for your treats! Psychological theory says you will appreciate it more! 

We like less squawk (see other sites) unless we got to of course and give you more data :). 


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Thursday, July 23, 2015

Graphical Analysis_What Rounds can you find your Sleepers, Anti-Sleepers and About Rights Players? Interesting Data!

Graphical Analysis_What Rounds can you find your Sleepers, Anti-Sleepers and About Rights Players?  Interesting Data!

If you are a regular reader it is clear we spare you excessive text! Over sites/blogs love to "flap on". We let our graph talk!

Our graph below is a new type for us. We plotted the ADP vs Pros opinions via the draft rounds. Yellow is the public and Pink are the Pros opinions. So we see that in the end of the draft the opinions diverge.

So if you need really dig into those players are the end about round 13 or so. We have our list of sleepers in other post! Use those! Why are the late players being touted? If you have the time dig at the back in not front. Spending time debating Pick1 vs Pick 2 is not as productive as Pick 13 and 14 etc.

Note in Round 1 and 2 everyone is on the same page via averages! Some Anti-sleepers working in rounds 6 and 7. Have Fun with this thinking device!



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Below are our series of graphs that map out the rounds, sleepers, anti-sleepers and about right players.


We present an overview graph of all 16 rounds! Call it a top view of the average draft!

* See round 7 has few about rights and alot of anti-sleepers! Beware!

Late rounds are all sleepers because at that point the Pros will not rank the duds while the public does not see the difference!
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We focus down into each 2 rounds segment! We have written too much! less anchoring (system 1) and more thinking with your system 2 brain.  See the resource below.

FYI____ I will be doing this book as it applies to Fantasy football down the road!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow

Beginning Quote
Thinking, Fast and Slow is a best-selling 2011 book by Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics winner Daniel Kahneman which summarizes research that he conducted over decades, often in collaboration with Amos Tversky. It covers all three phases of his career: his early days working on cognitive biases, his work on prospect theory, and his later work on happiness.
The book's central thesis is a dichotomy between two modes of thought: "System 1" is fast, instinctive and emotional; "System 2" is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The book delineates cognitive biases associated with each type of thinking, starting with Kahneman's own research on loss aversion. From framing choices to people's tendency to substitute an easy-to-answer question for one that is harder, the book highlights several decades of academic research to suggest that people place too much confidence in human judgment. End Quote

Let your system 2 glide over this data. :) 

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Wednesday, July 22, 2015

GRAPHICAL Analysis_Updated_Quick Look into the ADP Based Draft Picks via Position_ QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs and DEF. Novel Data Analysis!

GRAPHICAL Analysis_Updated_Quick Look into the ADP Based Draft Picks via Position_ QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs and DEF. Novel Data Analysis!


We use these as thinking aids to map out drafting strategies. We circled in red groups and in blue to highlight TEs and QBs into the 16th draft round.

Example of use!

For instance note in round 12 the QBs are the show. In round 14 you see the TEs. Late QB and TEs drafters are working in those rounds. So if you are late in either position,  draft before the average run!  By round 9 the top ten QBs are picked and by by round 13 the top 20 QBs are gone! So plan accordingly!



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Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Sleepers Stock Market Updated. Hot or Cold? Surprising Names that are out!. Looking at 5_30_15 (BASELINE) , 7_1_15 and the latest data of 7_15_15

Sleepers Stock Market Updated. Hot or Cold? Surprising Names that are out!. Looking at 5_30_15 (BASELINE) , 7_1_15 and the latest data of 7_15_15

We have divided the players by Positions. These are all players who at some time were considered sleepers. As you know rankings are fluid and we track players over time. 3 Dates are listed, a baseline from 5_30_15 vs the last couple of weeks at 7/1 and 7/15. Some were early sleepers other players are still sleepers. Use these charts effectively. These players are listed in alphabetically by first name in each class.

One obvious fact is the rookies were sleepers in May and most are not now. So draft early next year to pick up hot rookies before the crowd wakes up!

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