2012 to 2014. Player's ADP vs Player's Final PPR Scoring Finish!We want to present a quick look at the ADP vs seasonal ending finish. Does ADP mean what we think it does?
Table 1 shows the data for 3 Positions, QB, RB and WR. The players that were ranked by the end of the preseason as the Top 12! We looked at 2012, 2013 and 2014 data sets. We plotted the percentage of players out of 12 into the various groups!
In the QB position, we isolated the top 12 players and determined how many finished in the Top 12 in PPR generated points and how many finished in top 13 to 24 of all QBs.
The Red Lines separate the Positions. The green line separated the finish groups. (1st to 12th = 1st finish group, 13th to 24th = 2nd finish group , 25 to 36th = 3rd finish group and 37 to 48th place = 4th finish group.)
The blue diamonds are the data points while the large yellow star represents the average of the 3 years!.
So looking at QB, of the top 12 ADP QBs, 60% finished in the top 12 of QBs in end of seasonal scoring, while 30% finish in the next finished into the group of 13 to 24th rated QBs. 10% QB were ranked worse that 24th.
For RBs then we teased out the data into that top 12 RB by ADP pre-season to 4 finish groups at seasons end. Of the top 12 ADP RBs, there was more variation!. Be aware! Key point here!. The average of the top 12 was about 1/2 of them finished in the top 12 RB PPR point scorers!. 27% of then finished between 13th and 24th. Note continued variation! 22% finished in the top 25 to 36th and about 3% fished in the top 36th to 48th.
In the WRs, the top 12 finished in a all position high for 62% ish. Like QBs. Note less variation in 2012 to 2014. So they are who you think they are!. 20% finished in the next flight and 5 to 3% in the next 2. Note a few blew-up and were out of the race!
Table 2 looks at the next 12 players ranked 13th to 24th in ADP and we then determined their finish!
Quick take away is that the QB position is one where just using ADP you can catch a star vs in the RB or WR. 32% of 13 to 24th ADP ranked QBs finished in the top 12 PPR scorers while 18% RBs and 19% WR of the 13 to 24th ADP ranked players did so from those positions! Hence the late round QB drafting success! This is the basis for that!
Use this data as need!