2014 Perfect Draft vs Positional Changes. What happens if you draft late RBs, QBs, WRs, and TEs? Which has the greatest effects?So the classic debate seems to occur this time of year. Draft RBs early or do Zero RBs? Draft Qbs early or be the late round QB Guy! etc.
Alot of discussion its true.
We wanted to place numbers to this debate.
We used 2014 PPR seasonal data and constructed the perfect team. See Table 1.
The % of total is a calculation of the positions % of the total PPR pts per game. If you could have drafted the prefect team you should have scored 133.6 pts per game average.
16.5 % of that total was from the QB, etc. So the 2 WRs contributed 18% and TE just 13%
Analysis of this data seems to suggest that WR is the most important position.
Table 1. The Perfect Team
So we go further into the data in Table 2. We substituted the Prefect Team with the 12th player in PPR Pts/game 2014.
First removing Rodgers and replacing him with Palmer.
The QB is now 13.4% of the total vs 16.5% with prefect QB. (Loss of 3.1%)
Next we replaced Bell with #12 Bernard.
The RB position now is 11.6% of the total vs 17.3% of the prefect RB. (Loss of 5.7%)
Replacing Beckham with Jeffery.
The WR position is 13.0% of total vs 18.4% of the prefect player. (Loss of 5.4%)
Replacing Gronk with Clay.
The TE position is 7.8% of the total vs 13.3% with Gronk the perfect player (Loss of 5.5%)
So we order the loss from 5.7% (RB) to 3.1% for (QB)
Table 2 First Level Replacement Series. 12 for 1!
Table 3 Double Replacement QB with TE12, or RB12, or WR12
Table 4 Double Replacement, Both RBs (12_13th), or Both WRs (12_13th), or Both RBs (12_24th), or Both WRs (12_24th).
Table 5 Double Replacement, Both RBs (12_36th), or Both WRs (12_36th), or Both RBs (12_48th), or Both WRs (12_48h).
Table 6 Visual Look at the Prefect Team vs replacements. % of Prefect!Replacement RB got us 91.3 %. Lowest
Replacement QB and RB got us 86.6% Lowest
The Avg of RB replacement series was 79.9% vs WR of 80.7%