Uncertainty Maps. First Pass Look at Players, ADPs and their Uncertainty. Follow up to ignorance management.Table 1 is overall uncertainty map. Note the 2 red circles. The level of uncertainty is from +90
(low uncertainty) to -110 (high uncertainty). Note the general U shape. We move from early low uncertainty in Draft rounds 1 and 2 with some 3 and 4 rounds having a lot of player we low uncertainty about. In the Early Draft rounds the uncertainty number is a measure of the risk.
However, in the late round the positive numbers in rounds 13 to 18 indicate players being drafted are being thought of as better than their draft rounds. We as players always draft those late players as those who are going to be our sleepers. This data is catching that!
The players between the two red circle regions are thought to be the average opinions of them. They are who we think that are. Low uncertainty.
Note the concern is in the mid rounds where we have players (Anti-sleepers) who may be costing more than they are worth. Hence the high uncertainty numbers!
This is the first number based evidence we have seen ever in all the big sites to document this phenomena.
The next tables we present our "Secret" :) uncertainty numbers for each player as of 8/14/15.
We present the round, ADP and color code the positions. See the legend for the color codes.
We let you have more data less text!
Key on Gronk
Note the RBs here in the -40s and lower!
Manning the QB! More RBs here in lower numbers. So far after 6 rounds we see 9 RBs, 1 TE, 1 QB and 3 WRs. We see the RBs are more uncertain than other positions on average on these numbers support that. Neat!
Note the switch starting draft round 7 . WRs are the main ones!.
So after from 7 to 10 we have 6 RBs, 17 WRs, 1 TE and 1 QBs. So use this! in your draft planning.
This suggest you need to parse out these WRs in this range! You can gain the advantage here. use our sleeper anti-sleeper rankings to parse them. Do the same for the early RBs before round 7.
Rounds 11 to 14 we flip again. 5 Rbs, 2 WRs, 1 DEF, 1 QBs. Note the trend is now we believe all the late players WE PICK are better than their round picked. We are smarter than the average bear! So again who are the REAL sleepers here!
Note the picks are all better than their round drafted. That can not be true. Therefore we are spotting the trends that folks are either not being smart about their picks. We that said some player are going to be unknowns unknowns. Get deep here.!