Friday, August 7, 2015

Updated Sleepers and Anti-Sleepers with Bonus Risk vs ADP Graph!

Updated Sleepers and Anti-Sleepers with Bonus Risk vs ADP Graph!

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NOTE Early JUNE Data

We asked this question almost 2 months ago. 

What Rounds are the best to look for your Sleepers?

The Answer is Round 2. 6 of 12 are undervalued by the public!

 So in Round 1 most of the players are who you think they are. About pick 11 does it start. 

We have a run of bargains.


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NOTE Early JUNE Data

R3 and 4 are where the overbought players are sitting. 12 /24 players are overvalued here.
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We now present the current data!

The data says the landscape has dramatically changed!  


Now we see ONLY 1 sleeper for the first 4 round
Either the public is smarter and or serious players are heavily involved. 


In Early June there were 12 sleepers in the first 4 rounds! 


Be aware!

So we see 12 sleepers in round 5 to 8!. Here is where you need to get deep!. Time wise we suggest you work that area hard and leave the first 4 rounds as not fertile for your time. 

In the first 4 rounds the issue is "WHO is priced right!" 

This is the reason I draft early. I have noted the change as well. 
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We have this graph that tracks the players who are Risky (LIKELY) , Somewhat Risky (PROBABLE), Low Risk (UNLIKELY). Note we see in the first 4 round only 2 players are very risky!.  Correlate that with the lack of sleepers! 


The first 2 rounds now are considered full of low risk players that are priced right! That is based on our data for sleepers and risk. 

Note the riskest rounds are highlighted. Rounds 8 and 9 have few safe players! As well as later. Not focus your time into those worlds. Move on from early round now. 
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