Monday, August 3, 2015

Using a stress test to analyze your fantasy football roster

Using a stress test to analyze your fantasy football roster


An analysis conducted under unfavorable economic scenarios which is designed to determine whether a bank has enough capital to withstand the impact of adverse developments.

These tests are meant to detect weak spots in the banking system at an early stage, so that preventive action can be taken by the banks and regulators.

Stress tests focus on a few key risks – such as credit risk, market risk, and liquidity risk – to banks' financial health in crisis situations.

 The results of stress tests depend on the assumptions made in various economic scenarios, which are described by the International Monetary Fund as "unlikely but plausible." 

We propose a stress test approach to your drafted fantasy football team. You do not draft players and expect them to get injured. If you "know" they are going to be injured then do not draft them. 

Player has injury history. So we have developed a simple approach to visualize your team and that allow you to "see" unlikely but plausible events.

Step one.
 List players and projections in a spread sheet! See Table 1
I rank by High to Low projections and color code the table.

Step two look at the data.
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Step three graphically do the WR and RBs (Tables 2 and 3). We used our old exploding doughnut to do this. We calculated the % of the total in each group. So WRs we have Benjamin at 18%, Marshall at 16% and Johnson at 14%.  The stress is to remove each and see what is left!. If we lose KB at 18% we still have WRs at 16%, 4% and 14% (JB). We can predict we can weather one injure in the top group!

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Step four. So in the RBs we have CJ Anderson at 21%, MI at 18% and then IC at 14%. We can predict we need a RB in the 14% or better range. So either trade for it by uinge your WR as we (have 16,14,14,13 etc). Depth! In Season, it makes sense to blow the FAB budget for only a RB not a WR that shows up early!

Our stress test has informed us of the direction in a trade or waiver wire! It also lets you look at the bottom as well, do you need Oliver at 3%?.  Decisions are made easier in a stress test. You could automate and look at your league. We would like to see a person in the exact opposite bias. They would be the trade partner!

FSP "Fantasy Football Stress Test" cite us if you use in on your blog!

Good Luck
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