Friday, October 23, 2015

After Playing 215 Fanduel Plays_Analysis_ Thinking about Bankroll Management_

After Playing 215 Fanduel Plays_Analysis_ Thinking about Bankroll Management_

After 200 bets using my special Fantasy Sports Professor's PPR rankings, FanDuel Value Analysis Rankings, Defense stats and Vegas data that I give you in this blog I like to see what I am doing. 

Fan Duel allows a CSV download of your betting history. Please take the time to do that and look into your history. I used a pivot table on that file and came up with the Data Chart below.

Guess What? I am not going to play Head to Heads! I will not play large leagues greater than 20 players. How simple is that! 

Beware these are still small numbers and using stats to confirm that you have an advantage over the game will require many more plays. There are resources for one to calculate the needed number of profitable plays before you can be sure you are a long-term winner!

Recording keeping is your friend. Please do it now!

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FYI for Further Analysis 

In this article he quotes Dick Mitchell concerning this problem. 

" In his great book Winning Thoroughbred Strategies, Dick Mitchell popped the bubble of a lot of handicappers, I think. Here's why: If you have a 50% edge on the game and your win percentage is, say, 25% then you must be prepared for 18 losses in a row! The equation is the logarithm of .005 divided by the logarithm of the probability of failure - log(.005)/log(.75) = 18.41, round it to 18. Once again reality hits us square in the face."

So what does all of this mean? Well, the meaning for me comes from psychology and money management.

First question I must ask myself - and be as honest as I can: How many losses can I endure and still make good decisions? At what point do I come unhinged? When does FEAR take over? What dollar amount is my per wager comfort zone? Am I willing to let go of the NEED to be right?

Second question: How much capital do I have to work with? How much draw-down am I willing to take? If my win percentage is 25 then how much money should I wager on each event? Do I wager the same among on each event regardless of outcome? Am I willing to be disciplined enough to keep copious records?" 

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