Friday, November 13, 2015

After Playing 480 FanDuel Plays_Self Analysis_Bankroll Thoughts_An honest inward look!.

After Playing 478 FanDuel Plays_

Self Analysis_Bankroll Thoughts_

How to do an honest inward look!

So I have arrived at near the 500 play mark. I have been playing 1$ plays for the most part!

Lesson : Until you can make money using your skill sets at the 1$ per play level, do not invest in the big tournament plays. 

You can see in Table 1 I have listed the play type = opponent number and number of plays. 
Listed are the Investment Amounts, Return on the Investment, Profit R-I, and ROR known as rate of return. If I invest 1$ I can expect 1.63$ in 3 player leagues for example. 

(I believe that is not real but lets continue)  

Lesson: You can not be assured that what you see is real until you have played in a large significant number of plays. By chance anyone can win or lose in a short span. So we are looking long term here in our investment plan. There are statistical ways to test your play number and results to see if it is real or not. When I was investing at the racetrack, the number of bets was in the 1000s before one might be sure for some systems. So this data is way too early to try to break the bank. I will play at the 1$ level or so for the rest of this season.

Lesson: If you goal is Mo Money Quick, hum that's hard. Lets make a nice ROR slow!

Lesson: The 50/50s in the low opponent games seem to be my strengths.  The graph shows the trend except of HTH. So I think that means as a group, HTH player's skills are better than mine at this time. 

Lesson: Accept who you are as a skilled investor. I will play in low opponent 50/50 or the top few winner leagues.

Lesson: My 1000 plus tournament plays of  51 plays shows a nice ROR. So I should go all in? 

NO if you throw out my fluky 50$ hit in one tournament, my ROR drops to slight negative. 

Lesson: One big hit shrews the show.  Always throw out the extremes and look at whats left! 
Use the CSV download at FanDuel Thoughtfully. 

Final Lesson: Clearly my skills at playing the large GPP tournament leagues is not good enough. I seem to be made for the so-called cash games 50/50 etc. 

I play in 30 season long leagues and the skills there are not what is needed. I need to think through the data to win a tournament. I know I must not chase the points but predict game scripts etc to "see" into the future. The surprise player!

I will be posting my DFS data with Defense @ Position and Vegas data later on. This is the same data I use for the results I have achieved. I hope it helps you as well! 

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