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Showing posts from February, 2016

Early PPR Color Coded Risk and Numerical Risk Scores_Natural Draft Pick Players if all were drafted to the current ADP who would you get?

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Early PPR Color Coded Risk and Numerical Risk ScoresNatural Draft Pick Players if all were drafted to the current ADP who would you get?
WE HAVE ADDED OUR NUMERICAL RANKINGS AND RISK SCORES NOT JUST CLASSIFICATIONS BUT THE ACTUAL SCORES WE USE IN OUR HANDICAPPING. 
WE PLOTTED THE CURRENT RISK SCORE ACROSS THE DRAFT PICKS USING CURRENT ADP
WE FINALLY SHOW THE NATURAL RESULTS IF ALL PLAYERS WERE PICKED AT THE DRAFT POSITION 1 TO 12. WE ELIMINATED DEF AND PKS FROM THE LIST. 
LOOK AT THE NUMBERS OF RBs WRs ETC AS WELL AS RANKINGS AND RISKS. WHICH DRAFT PICK IN PPR HAS A NATURAL Advantage?  = Draft Pick 5! 
Highest Risk= Draft Pick 8

Current ADP Rankings vs FSP's Risk Biased Rankings. Source of Sleepers and Anti-Sleepers. Early Peek into 2016 Drafts

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Current ADP Rankings vs FSP's Risk Biased Rankings. Source of Sleepers and Anti-Sleepers. Early Peek into 2016 Drafts
We have working on incorporating our risk assessments into our own rankings. In our newest research it appears that our risk based assessment can be numerically applied to any ranking series. 
This is the first publication of our Numerical Risk Based Rankings as applied to current ADP rankings.
We calculated our Ranked Risk Scores and plotted them vs Players current ADP based on PPR scoring. 
Graph 1 shows that plot of data point. The Pink line hits the average and above the line are players who are deemed Higher Risk players and below are the Lower Risk Players. All plotted by the player's current ADP. Round 1 to 3 is pretty much what you see is no surprises. Starting at round 4 onward we see the appearance of nicely ranked player who are much Risker than the ADP would say!
We then in tabular form list by ADP and Rounds of the Draft each ranked player along with t…

Round by Round Positional Player Ranking with Risk Analysis

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Round by Round Positional Player Ranking with Risk Analysis


















Scaled PPR Player Rankings with Risk Values.

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Scaled PPR Player Rankings with Risk Values.

Part 2 ADP vs Positional Risk My Video Quick Discussion

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKblFJxashI

Part 2 ADP vs Positional Risk

Enjoy

MY VIDEO (CLICK LINK - 5 MINUTE QUICK SHOT) GOING OVER MY FEB 10, 2016 POST. ENJOY

MY VIDEO (CLICK LINK - 5 MINUTE QUICK SHOT) GOING OVER MY FEB 10, 2016 POST.

ENJOY

https://youtu.be/t-jyJuQ_SCg

Early 2016 ADP Positions with Positional Risk Analysis

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Early 2016 ADP Positions with Positional Risk Analysis Graph 1 is looking Top Down at 12 Rounds of ADP data by Position and Risk Values (High, Avg, and Low Risk)



Graphs 2 to 7 Break the above data down and report each position by ADP rank and Risk Value to the Average of the group.  (Negative Numbers Lower Risk while positive numbers imply Higher Risk). I placed all risk values to the group average on the same scale for between position comparisons. 










Early Feb 2016_ ADP Vs Position_Rounds 1 to 12

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Early Feb 2016 PPR ADP Vs PositionRounds 1 to 12
Red Circle Denotes End of the First 12 of the Position
Green Circle Denotes the End of the First 24 of the Position
Yellow Circle Denotes the End of the First 36 of the Position
As you may predict the WR position in a PPR is being picked earlier.  The end of the WR1s is within the mid round 2 while the end of the RB1s occurs in mid third round. 
WR2s end within the 4th round while for the RB2s they end in the 6th round.
Both are caught up by Round 8 where the WR3s and RB3s are completed there.
For QBs, the end of the QB1s occurs at Round 9 - Late QB Drafters take note.
For the TE position, the end of the TE1s is at round 10. Note Gronk is being taken at the 10 pick!
Round 9 is where the first DEF is first taken

I looked back at 7/22/15 and the WRs1 were ending early Round 3 and RB1s ending late round 2. So as compared to 7/22/15 the WR1s are ending a half a round earlier and RB1s are lasting 1/2 half a round later.