Thursday, February 25, 2016

Current ADP Rankings vs FSP's Risk Biased Rankings. Source of Sleepers and Anti-Sleepers. Early Peek into 2016 Drafts

Current ADP Rankings vs FSP's Risk Biased Rankings. 

Source of Sleepers and Anti-Sleepers. 

Early Peek into 2016 Drafts

We have working on incorporating our risk assessments into our own rankings. In our newest research it appears that our risk based assessment can be numerically applied to any ranking series. 

This is the first publication of our Numerical Risk Based Rankings as applied to current ADP rankings.

We calculated our Ranked Risk Scores and plotted them vs Players current ADP based on PPR scoring. 

Graph 1 shows that plot of data point. The Pink line hits the average and above the line are players who are deemed Higher Risk players and below are the Lower Risk Players. All plotted by the player's current ADP. Round 1 to 3 is pretty much what you see is no surprises. Starting at round 4 onward we see the appearance of nicely ranked player who are much Risker than the ADP would say!

We then in tabular form list by ADP and Rounds of the Draft each ranked player along with the ADP and our novel RR Score Rankings as well as  the difference between the ADP and our RR Rankings. Player with higher numbers than 0 would be "Sleepers" while those below zero could be considered "anti-sleepers"

We color coded by deep and light green the sleepers and red and light red players who are the early anti-sleepers. Those player that have an ADP low than our risk view of them! 

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