Monday, June 13, 2016

Analysis of the Current ADPs and Drafting Patterns in MFL10s and 25s Best Ball Leagues. Part 1

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Analysis of the Current ADPs and Drafting Patterns in MFL10s and 25s Best Ball Leagues.    Part 1

This article presents my analysis of the current draft ADPs of the MFL10s and 25s I am highlighting a reference set of draft data. 

It is well known that to fight planning biases we must have a view of the expected averages of the drafting positions. 

These are leagues going on now and have a 20 round draft and best ball format which leads to a different approaches to your usual draft plans. 

Many articles are out there discussing the optimal roster construction.  

I played in 2 MFL 10s last year and won both. I won because I drafted D. Baldwin from SEA late and grabbed D. Freeman Early. That’s it. 

I had 3 TEs and 3 DEFs as well in the 20 spots.

Questions that I need considered before I join in on these leagues are as follows

1) What are the current draft patterns by draft pick and round of the positions draft?

2) What plans do I need to use and develop? (Each Position needs a plan!)

3) When can I expect trends and get a jump on them?

4) How well to I know the 32 Teams and their Depth Charts?

5) Who are the handcuffs and rookies I need to watch?

Obvious Points _ Rounds 1 to 3

1) No QBs taken in first 3 rounds. You can wait on Cam Newton

2) WRs are dominate to RBs .  5/6 WRs taken in first 6 picks!
            Pattern continues into the 3rd round.

3) In TEs, we see the top 2 grabbed only. (Gronk and Reed)

Obvious Points _ Rounds 4 to 6

1) Here come the RBs!

2) A trickle of TEs with the top 4 grabbed by 6th round.
    (Plan your TE and QB picks for either later or jump early).

3) Cam and other top 2 QBs are gone by 6th round.

4) After 6th round the top 36 WRs gone!

5) After 6th round the top 24 RBs gone! 
    Still 3rd level RBs to be grabbed. If you choose later QBs         and TEs you might cherry pick your RBs here instead. 
    Be Thoughful!

Obvious Points _ Rounds 7 to 9

1) All 4th round WRs gone by 9th rounds. 
    (Deeper WR Rookies and Gambles picking have begun ) 

 2) All 3rd Level RBs gone. Still 4th levels RBs available.             (Handcuff and Gambles Begin) 

 3) Still only 8 QBs off the board. You still can wait into next        few rounds to finish off with a top 12 QB. 

 4) 1st level TEs pickings are slim. Top 9 TEs gone.  
      Later level 1 TEs hanging on the drafting tree. Again your       QBs and TEs need a plan before your draft. 
      Not knowing how later you can still get a 1st Level QB or         TEs can cause premature drafting!  

     Fear of an unbalance team whispers to you 
      in these rounds. 

 5) No Defense taken yet. Wait Wait!

Obvious Points _ Rounds 10 to 12

1) TEs Roll here. 
        (So you could be a round early because you see the  
         trend before others).
        I hypothesize our “unbalanced team bias” fear drives 
        this trend.
        I coin this as the first specific cognitive bias to fantasy
        sports drafting. I think?

        We are half way into the 2nd level TEs as well. 
        (Plan who are you go to for late 1st or 2nd TE picks)

2) RBs are catching up to the WRs in these rounds.
            (Still cuffs, grabs and gambles though).

3) QBs are still ok. We have plenty of level 2 QBs to pick.
       You plans should define choices in the 2nd level QBs                (Streaming concepts will apply as well. Maybe using 3 
       QBs total for late late QBs multi drafting)

4) Best Ball leagues need multiple TEs and QBs so these are         the round many are grabbing 2 at a time. Plan!

5) No DEFs taken still on average.  
      Wait for the multi DEF run to get at least 2 or 3 DEFs

Obvious Points _ Rounds 13 to 15

1) Most folks second QBs are coming off the boards here.

2) RBs really picking up again in round 15.

3) WRs are steady in 13 and 14th rounds.

4) First 2 DEFs off the boards. Now expect this position trend to grow.

Obvious Points. Rounds 16 to 18

1) Seems balanced with all positions but DEFs which have really picked up.

2) Everyone is filling in with late gambles and triple RBs cuffs.

3) So your plans are to dig into the depth charts and 
     find the 4th / 5th level RBs and WRs. 
    What rookies can come on later?

4) The next 2 rounds are a continuation of this filling in 
       with DEFs 2X or 3X being stockpiled as well

Final point.

I physically like if time permits to draw out my war plans in a Best Ball league. Different colored crayons on a draft round by round number line can be a good draft aid. Those grade school skills are finally useful. Good Luck!

Another Article I wrote is being featured at Going for 2 Website

This is material at Going for 2 (see link above) is lifted from Chapter 6 in my Textbook for sale at Amazon.  See link above for that article .


Neat data that support a LATE QB and TE drafting approach.


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