Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Analysis of the Current ADPs and Drafting Patterns in MFL10s and 25s Best Ball Leagues. Part 2

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Analysis of the Current ADPs and Drafting Patterns in MFL10s and 25s Best Ball Leagues.    Part 2

Last article, I got you into the draft landscape at the positional levels. I encouraged plans and vision building. Stop and read that article if you have not read part 1 and come back.

I present other aspects I use in my fine tuning any of my MFL 10 draft plans

Table 1. Numerical Counts of the Positions Drafted by Draft Pick 1 to 12

Table 1 gives you a feel for each draft pick’s natural ADP drive results. 

In other words if everyone picked by the ADP this is what each team would look like in terms of positions and their drafted numbers. 

I use Green to highlight the higher position count numbers and Red for the lower position count numbers across the draft picks.

 I left the last 2 rounds out because its really hard to think DEFs will not dominate in the last 2 rounds.

Obvious Points

1) RBs are on average represent 45% of the total WR and           RBs drafted on average. 

   It is a little unbalanced to the WRs. So the tendency is to           have one more WR than RBs.    (5.6 RBs vs. 6.8 WRs)

2) QBs and TEs are balanced and the trends are to have 
     2 or 3 of each. (2.6 QB to 2.4 TEs).

3) On Average Draft Picks 4, 7 and 11 are better for RBs

4) On Average Draft Picks 5, 10, and 11 are better for WRs

Figure 2 Draft Pick 1 to 12 vs. Average Draft Pick

I calculated at each draft pick point 1 to 12, each position players’ average draft pick and generated a positional average of those averages. (An average of the average)

In the graph, each draft pick has 4 bars with the average of the average draft positions of the RBs in red, WRs in green, TEs in yellow and QBs in light blue. 

How I see this data is by first visualizing the total draft pick’s results. 

I see that the RB levels are the best for Pick 1 and worst for draft picks 3, 6 and 10. 

WR levels are best seen at draft pick 1, 3, and 6 hands down!  

Draft Pick 1 seems to best of the RB and WR combo stats by the average of the average ADP.

Table 3 Tabular Data set for the Figure 2 Graph

Obvious Points

1) Analysis of the Grand Average of the positional ADP averages as shown across the bottom suggests the slight WR bias (88.2) with a much later TE and QBs (119 and 132).

2) These Grand Averages are 88.2 (WR) vs. 92.1 (RB) as compared to TE (119.5) and QB (132.2).  

So in these leagues expect the value order to be WR  >=  RB  >> TE  >>> QB.

3) The draft pick 1 to 12 averages ranged from the low of Draft Pick 12 (95.9) to the highest Draft Pick 9 (102.8).

4) WRs are favored in Draft Picks 1, 3, and 6 while RBs are favored at Draft Picks 5, 7, 8 and   12.

5) In combo analysis, Draft Pick 1 gives us the lowest low draft selection sum of the RB/WR averages (85.9 +57.7) which equals 143.6.  The worst is Draft Pick 10 with a sum of 200.8 a 25% difference worst players that are picked.


Table 4.  Draft Pick vs. Player Selection Numbers Scaled to the Positional Average. 

Obvious Points

1) Use a scaling the number to the Positional Average approach we see the Advantage of Draft Pick 1 is much clearer with a RB WR average of +36.7. 

Draft Pick 6 is second at +22.5 above average. 

Draft Pick 10 has the worst average at -20.4 below average.

2) I speculate that the major importance for you the reader is to if you end up with a Draft Pick 10 or 1 of the other predicted poor draft picks, you should be prepared to maybe reach more to change the path that you are on. 

If I had draft pick 10 I push my RB picks as the WRs picks are just average. Another example in looking at Draft Pick 3 shows we have poor RB pattern. Be prepared to shake it up. 

I might of the other hand be more conservative if assigned Draft Pick 1.

Figure 5. Graphical View of the Table 4 Data.
Use this graph’s data from the Table 4 data to imagine an average draft in these leagues at each assigned draft pick. 


Part 3  Next UP

Another Article I wrote is being featured at Going for 2 Website

This is material at Going for 2 (see link above) is lifted from Chapter 6 in my Textbook for sale at Amazon.  See end of article for that link.


Neat data that support a LATE QB and TE drafting approach.

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