PART 2 Troubled RB Backfields BAL backfield AThExample The Professors Step by Step for Analysis of Fantasy Football Drafting - Hypothesis driven.

I HaveUpdated my Book

With my Book :)

Amazon Link to my Updated Version of My Book

without my book :(
________________________________________________________________________

PART 2 Troubled RB Backfields

The Professors  Step by Step for Analysis of Fantasy Football Drafting - Hypothesis driven.


Step 1. Identify all the different hypothesis to be considered for a key player. Use ADPs and my analysis to look at the possibilities.  

Step 1A). 


So who are your Key Players that need this process? I think they are good players in "bad situations", good players in competition situations, players that are good but seem to injured alot, etc. 

You I assume are a serious player if you are reading this. So you need to develop a slate of players in these or other situations. (I have done that for you for the RBs  see previous posts)

Step 1B).

Write down the alternative hypothesis for each player. A minimum of 2 possibilities always exists. SUX or Not SUX. So how many possibilities exist.

In the BAL RB backfield we have

___________________________________________________________

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In figure 1,  I present 2 Area Graphs. 


Fig 1A shows the RB Landscape currently:

1) Rankings.  Forsett 64    Dixon 54   Allen  51

Fig 1B shows the Risk Profile

2) Risk Landscape. 


I see the overall risk as elevated because of the rankings plus other subjective data. 

Take-home is 3 closely ranked RBs with elevated risk. 

RISK Order  Allen > Forsett > Dixon/others

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So what are some hypothesis?


1) Forsett dominates all the others in passing and rushing.

2) Allen moves into the Passing RB 1 role and with Forsett used on Rushing Downs 
    (RBBC Split)
    
3) Forsett injured Allen is the RB1. K Dixon rookie into the Passing Downs

4) Forsett injured Allen is the RB1. Dixon and others share relief

5) Both Allen and Forsett out by injury. K Dixon rookie is the workhorse RB 1

6) Both Allen and Forsett out injury. K Dixon main RB but have others split roles (RBBC)


Lets stop here.

________________________________________________________________________

Figures to consider here as well








Conclusions

K Dixon looks like Allen and not like Forsett. 

Professor's secret _ This is some of the depth I use to generate my rankings as well. 

Clearly the data suggests Running Back By Committee (RBBC) and with a rushing role for Forsett  and passing roll for Allen.

I think Dixon makes a great late RB grab! 

______________________________________________________________


SOS Figure from my Previous Post. (Go find it!)



________________________________________________________________________

STEP2. Make a list of significant evidence and arguments for and against each hypothesis.

So make a list of hypothesis 1 to 6 and have 2 columns.

Hypothesis 1 Forsett dominates all the others in passing and rushing.   
Hypothesis 2 Allen is the Passing RB and Forsett is the Rushing RB
Hypothesis 3  Allen or Forsett Not Playing Well/Injured K Dixon is now in the RBBC
Hypothesis 4  Both Allen and Forsett Not Playing Well and K Dixon dominates as Bellcow RB 
Hypothesis 5  Both Allen and Forsett Not Playing Well and K Dixon is with others in a RBBC
Hypothesis 6. Other RBs displace these 3 and breakout.

For and Against.

Example

Hypothesis Number 1. Forsett dominates all the others in passing and rushing.   

FOR:          Has shown abilities in both arenas and could be an every-down back for a while. 
                   Seasoned RB with skills a average passing game to keep BAL in most games.
                   Nice Rushing Production

AGAINST:  Allen is the clear passing RB
                  Forsett plays a role only in competitive BAL games. Using the SOS Figure that predicted
                  to be only 5 games for his domination so 11 games would be going to Allen and DIxon
.

STEP 3 Setup a Matrix with the  FOR and AGAINST.  Determine which items are the most valuable to the Hypothesis. I would rank the items by high to low with a score. 

Rank High to Low Points to Hypothesis 1

Allen is the clear passing RB
Forsett has shown abilities in both arenas and could be an every-down back for a while.
Forsett plays a role only in competitive BAL games. Using the SOS Figure that predicted
                  to be only 5 games for his domination so 11 games would be going to Allen and Dixon
 Seasoned RB with skills a average passing game to keep BAL in most games.
Forsett had Nice Rushing Production

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

STEP 4. Redefine the items with a score of 80% or more. Release the lesser items for now.

Top 3 80% Scoring 

Allen is the clear passing RB 100%

Forsett plays a role only in competitive BAL games. Using the SOS Figure that predicted 90%
                  to be only 5 games for his domination so 11 games would be going to Allen and Dixon

Forsett has shown abilities in both arenas and could be an every-down back for a while.  80%

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

STEP 5. Draw tentative conclusions about the relative likelihood of each hypothesis. Proceed by trying to disprove the hypotheses rather than prove them.

Likely-hood for me implies odds or probabilities.

So it looks like in Hypothesis 1 that we have a natural 2 to 1 ratio of Against vs For

33% for the FOR and 66% against.  That implies a low expectation for Hypothesis 1.

We have strong evidence to support a RBBC.

If we go through this exercise we will find Hypothesis 2 is the preferred one. 



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


STEP 6A. Analyze how sensitive your conclusion is to a few critical items of evidence. Consider the consequences for your analysis if that evidence were wrong, misleading, or subject to a different interpretation.

I believe all evidence is back looking. That why this game is hard. 

If we are wrong then we can expect Forsett to step up and be the show until injured. 

7. Report conclusions. Discuss the relative likelihood of all the hypotheses, not just the most likely one.

Let us assign probabilities 


Hypothesis 1 Forsett dominates all the others in passing and rushing.   
Hypothesis 2 Allen is the Passing RB and Forsett is the Rushing RB
Hypothesis 3  Allen or Forsett Not Playing Well/Injured K Dixon is now in the RBBC
Hypothesis 4  Both Allen and Forsett Not Playing Well and K Dixon dominates as Bellcow RB 
Hypothesis 5  Both Allen and Forsett Not Playing Well and K Dixon is with others in a RBBC
Hypothesis 6. Other RBs displace these 3 and breakout.


Hypothesis 2 is the clear choice. I assign a 45% Probability

In the 55% left  

Hypothesis 3 is assigned a 25% Probability
Hypothesis 1  is assigned a 20% Probability
Hypothesis 3 4 and 5 are 10 % together

Step 6B
Now what is the public saying ADP etc? What are the Insider Pros saying?

So the current ADP in PPR is Forsett at 30 and Allen at 44th and Dixon out beyond 60th RB

Public is saying Allen is seen as worth 40% of Forsett.  

My Rankings suggest Allen (54) is worth closer to 84% of Forsett (64). I am also too high on Dixon (51) so he is worth 80% of Forsett. 

Translate that to ADP the

Allen is worth 84% of the Forsett's ADP  
ADP 37
---------------------------------------------

** I know I am too high so I use the ADP number at 60. instead 

** So 80% of 60 leaves us with Dixon at 48 for the ceiling and 60+ at the floor

ADP  Forsett 33              RB 2/3
         Allen 37                 RB 3
         Dixon 48                RB 4

**This process as with projections will be subjective as well**



 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

STEP 8. Identify milestones for future observation that may indicate events are taking a different course than expected.


So in events point to movement of your probabilities then do so. 

This is the called feedback looping. 

Part of this time in the season is we are all looking for that information needed for feedback looping to kick in. 

What have we missed? A new Player added? An injury? Using different schemes in the offense? 


Popular posts from this blog

Running Backs and their 2016 Passing Targets and Rushing Attempts. Scaled Numbers with Rushing to Pass Ratios, Bias Analysis

Early MFL10s 2017 ADPs with rankings and risk analysis.

Post Draft MFL 10 ADPs_Player Risk and Ranks_Draft Pick Advantages_Numerous Action Packed Data Figures!