Wednesday, June 1, 2016

Producing Reference Class Data for ADP Drafting and Example Method to formula pre-draft questions.

Producing Reference Class Data for ADP Drafting and Example Method to formula pre-draft questions.

Intelligence in Public Literature
Thinking, Fast and Slow
Daniel Kahneman, (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011), 418 pp
Reviewed by Frank J. Babetski
Studies in Intelligence Vol. 56, No. 2 (Extracts, June 2012)


" Few books are “must reads” for intelligence officers. Fewer still are “must reads” that mention Intelligence Community functions or the CIA only once, and then only in passing. Daniel Kahneman has written one of these rare books. Thinking, Fast and Slow represents an elegant summation of a lifetime of research in which Kahneman, Princeton University Professor Emeritus of Psychology and Public Affairs, and his late collaborator, Amos Tversky, changed the way psychologists think about thinking. Kahneman, who won the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics for his work with Tversky on prospect theory, also highlights the best work of other researchers throughout the book.

Thinking, Fast and Slow introduces no revolutionary new material, but it is a masterpiece because of the way Kahneman weaves existing research together. Expert intelligence officers at CIA, an agency with the “human intelligence” mission at its core, have come through experience and practice to understand and exploit the human cognitive processes of which Kahneman writes. These expert officers will have many moments of recognition in reading this book, which gives an empirical underpinning for much of their hard-won wisdom."

Folks in the off season you should read this book multiple times! I bought it on Amazon Kindle and use my Evernote app to pin great quotes.

One part of the story is "The Planning Fallacy" Most projects (Fantasy Football Teams) have overly optimistic forecast as to the outcomes. Go back to 4/13 post to finding out more at reference class analysis. 

In decision making you must have a reference class for comparisons.  I developed these methods and have made tables and charts to see the reference data. If you were to blindly use the current (6/1/16) ADP at each draft pick in the PPR worlds, what would be the results? 

See the best and worst draft pick positions for the positions and rankings. What are the natural odds of getting good RBs vs. WRs by draft pick.  So for example in RBs,  the best draft pick positions are Pick 2, 7, 9 and 10th pick.

Counts of Position Drafted

Average Rankings by the Public by Position and Draft Pick

Same Data grouped by position then draft pick. 

Example Questions to be researched. You should go through all draft picks!

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