Thursday, July 21, 2016

AFC East__Analysis__Story Telling


"Psychologists have referred to stories as "psychologically privileged," meaning that our minds treat stories differently than other types of material. People find stories interesting, easy to understand, and easy to remember. "

So I am going tell tell you stories about conferences and divisions in the next 8 articles. 

I do this to help you think about the data landscapes and remember information to use going into your drafts.  

The professor now assigns you homework. Take your data and opinions and make your own stories. 

The prologue to my stories is shown in the first two figures

Figure 1 is a landscape view and the overall stories are there to see. Its an overview and goes from teams that had fewer failed drives to those that had more failures. Figure 2 below it is the tabular data color coded for the data. I scaled the data (# of TDs, FGs and Failures) divided by the number of drives to equilibrate all of the teams. Review these figures and then proceed. 

2015 was a typical year composed of teams who excelled (green) and teams who struggled with many failures (red). 

Teams were able to score TDs, some did not score many at all. 

Several Team settled for FGs vs TDs instead. Some did neither. 

Its 2016 preseason and hope springs eternal.  

Teams (NE, CAR, ARI, SEA, PIT, CIN, MIN, NYG, and KC) in green wish to stay there 


red stained teams (CLE, IND, PHI, HOU, SF, MIA, TEN, and LAR) do not. 

As FF players you must see the past as only a setting for the 2016 story that will be unfolding. 


                                  Story 3.  AFC EAST

Lets start our tale with a series of area graphs which illustrate each of the 4 team's 2015. I call these area graphs a team landscape. T

The categories are : 

A) Ratio of TD/FG. Success Metric. This could point to a kicker. This metric measures the fortitude of the team. Could they get the ball into the endzone for a TD or did they settle for a FG

B/C) Rushing TDs vs Passing TDs. These 2 match pair metrics measure the bias of the 2015 team's scoring success. Does this team going by ground/pound or by air? RBs vs WRs. 

D/E/F) WR_RB or TEs passing TDs. In the Red Zone, what was the mode of TD strikes? RBs WRs or TEs? This should tip yous hand for your first level of focus in 2016 draft.

G/H) Metrics that measure Pass vs Rushing Attempts and Pass vs Rushing Yards Gained. What mode brings home the bacon? (Pass vs Run?) Should allow a focus to or from WRs RBs and or TEs. 

I) A simple ratio metric of Pass vs Rushing Scoring! This confirms the emphasis the team had in 2015. Run first Pass First or Balanced? 


The Story of the 2015 BUF Team.

This is a good team that lost a key WR early. They scored TDs over FGs with a good ration of 9. They however shifted into rushing TDs vs passing TDs. They red zone TDs with to WR and RBs. The TE was not involved (-13). The passing conpacity was not good. Improvement with Watkins back could move them up in this group! A team with potential! 

This Year the public sees BUF as an ok team slightly above league average. Third rated within this group. Remember no Watkins last year so the public may be underestimating the 2016 BUF team. 

Positional Analysis supports A nice WR group and RB corp. Note the QB is still not believed to be a forced and is rated a lowly 19.9. Note the TE was not even rated. 

Balance wise the show is WR and RBs and the public does see WR improvement with a ranking counting for almost 50% of the Team's worth! Compare the WRs to the NE Team with a 21%. 

2016 Public's player rankings, credit McCoy with an 82 and Watkins with an 81. This QB is lowly ranked. The concern for me is the BUF team has all eggs in its RB1 and WR2. I like to see more depth. Boom Bust possibilities! 


Miami's 2015 Story

The 2015 story was MIA was an average type of Team. When they scored though it was with a TD vs FGs. The numbers for 2015 show average Run to Pass TD. Analysis of the red zone data suggests that no position stood out! The TE was weakest. Cameron has to move up to be in this mix. MIA was good at passing ATTs and YDs. They have two WRs that catch and catch. Positive data in the ATTs and YDs. I will be targeting the WRs. 

Moving into the 2016 Season, the public sees MIA as at the bottom of this group. The 2015 story does not inspire any thoughts of great change.The other teams will have to under-preform to have MIA viable.

Positional analysis only credits MIA's WRs with a 73.9 ranking. That is solid! RBs are below the 50% mark at 40% that ranking does not give great hope. However the addition of Foster could give life to the RBs. I can see a move into the 60s. The Qb and TEs are predicted as the archillies heels of this Team. They need more than Foster.

Balance wise the bias is clearly to the WRs. Again Foster improves the RBs group and I expect a shift up for the RBs! The QB and TEs are not a factor. 

Player Rankings I need to change. I would give Foster a 50 and Ajayi down to a 40. I am most supportive of the 2 key WRs The ranking of 85 and 62 are not too far off. I am taking them when I can in my drafts! 


The 2015 Story of NE. 

The Team in 2015 was less efficient that we have seen. The TD to FG ratio was at 2. The distribution of TDs was equal between RBs and WRs. In the Red Zone the RB and TEs was the targets. The lowly ranked WRs were not trusted. Look for this to continue. NE was be good but the lack of a healthy WR1 type played hell for NE. They have all the weapons to improve.
For 2016, the public ranked NE as the leader barely over the NYJ. Neck and neck rankings. Position Rankings actually can be seen as good all are above the 50% mark. The only team with this group to have that characteristic. Gronk is the key and the fate of the NE rests on his health.  

The NE team has a predicted balance very favorable to the TE (Gronk) but the WRs are ranking as have only a potential of 21% to the team's success! Its Gronk and the rest of the pieces.

Player rankings support D Lewis as the RB1 with a 78 ranking. Gronk is ranked at 93 and Edelman at 83. NE does have 3 nice pieces with the other 3 teams not having that situation. NE should be able to win this division. 


The 2015 NYJ Story

This team had some strong moments in 2015. They have a TD to FG of 5. Ok. They produced in Passing TDs vs Run TDs. Given the pair of WRs and Fitz the QB throwing, it produced a red zone WR rating of 26. Superior! However, the down side is that the ATTs and YDs were just blah. (-1.7 and -5.4) 

In 2016 the public thinks the NYJ are going to push NE and they are contenders. Positional ratings are strong for WR and RBs. The QB of course is not highly as Geno does not give hope for a good year. The WRs have move basement potential than I would like given the potential QB they could have. If FITZ does not sign all bets are off!

Positional balance is all WR and RBs. In the 50% level which is nice but its still QB dependent! 
The public strongly supports the WRs and Matt Forte as the RB. Forte with his catching abilities could give the NYJ the edge they need to beat the NE team. I rated FITZ but the public ignores him. If he signs he becomes for me a late QB option! 

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