"Psychologists have referred to stories as "psychologically privileged," meaning that our minds treat stories differently than other types of material. People find stories interesting, easy to understand, and easy to remember. "
So I am going tell tell you stories about conferences and divisions in the next 8 articles.
I do this to help you think about the data landscapes and remember information to use going into your drafts.
The professor now assigns you homework. Take your data and opinions and make your own stories.
The prologue to my stories is shown in the first two figures
Figure 1 is a landscape view and the overall stories are there to see. Its an overview and goes from teams that had fewer failed drives to those that had more failures. Figure 2 below it is the tabular data color coded for the data. I scaled the data (# of TDs, FGs and Failures) divided by the number of drives to equilibrate all of the teams. Review these figures and then proceed.
2015 was a typical year composed of teams who excelled (green) and teams who struggled with many failures (red).
Teams were able to score TDs, some did not score many at all.
Several Team settled for FGs vs TDs instead. Some did neither.
Its 2016 preseason and hope springs eternal.
Teams (NE, CAR, ARI, SEA, PIT, CIN, MIN, NYG, and KC) in green wish to stay there
red stained teams (CLE, IND, PHI, HOU, SF, MIA, TEN, and LAR) do not.
As FF players you must see the past as only a setting for the 2016 story that will be unfolding.
Story 2. AFC South
Lets start our tale with a series of area graphs which illustrate each of the 4 team's 2015. I call these area graphs a team landscape. T
The categories are :
A) Ratio of TD/FG. Success Metric. This could point to a kicker. This metric measures the fortitude of the team. Could they get the ball into the endzone for a TD or did they settle for a FG
B/C) Rushing TDs vs Passing TDs. These 2 match pair metrics measure the bias of the 2015 team's scoring success. Does this team going by ground/pound or by air? RBs vs WRs.
D/E/F) WR_RB or TEs passing TDs. In the Red Zone, what was the mode of TD strikes? RBs WRs or TEs? This should tip yous hand for your first level of focus in 2016 draft.
G/H) Metrics that measure Pass vs Rushing Attempts and Pass vs Rushing Yards Gained. What mode brings home the bacon? (Pass vs Run?) Should allow a focus to or from WRs RBs and or TEs.
I) A simple ratio metric of Pass vs Rushing Scoring! This confirms the emphasis the team had in 2015. Run first Pass First or Balanced?
2015 Story of the HOU Team.
This team scored TDs to FG at near average levels but the scoring was very biased to passing. The level of injuries really hurt the HOU rushing game (-11). In the red zone, this team spread the ball around but the TE seemed to benefit. The actual passing ATT and YDs were below average.
IND in 2015 was a non-efficient team with Luck being injured. The TD to FG ratio was not strong and average. Frank Gore did score via rushing but the WRs did deliver. Passing was strong in this team so with Luck back expect a move way up. The potential is there. TEs was not used well and WR and RB were used in the red zone ok. Passing ATTs and YDs were nice and point the way. Expect more in 2016.
The public sees the IND as 40.7 and -3 below average. I think they are seeing the 2015 too literally. Opportunities here for improved 2016 story. FYI HOU and JAC are rated above IND?
At the positional level, IND is credited with a very good QB (70) and just a 54 on the WR. Hard to balance those numbers. This is the opposite issue as was seen in HOU. I think the WRs can be higher by the end of the 2016 season. Watch and draft those WRs. The RB and TEs are not well respected and nothing suggests an vast improvement. So its the LUCK and his WRs show.
2015 Story of the JAC Team