Wednesday, July 20, 2016

AFC South__Analysis__Storytelling


"Psychologists have referred to stories as "psychologically privileged," meaning that our minds treat stories differently than other types of material. People find stories interesting, easy to understand, and easy to remember. "

So I am going tell tell you stories about conferences and divisions in the next 8 articles. 

I do this to help you think about the data landscapes and remember information to use going into your drafts.  

The professor now assigns you homework. Take your data and opinions and make your own stories. 

The prologue to my stories is shown in the first two figures

Figure 1 is a landscape view and the overall stories are there to see. Its an overview and goes from teams that had fewer failed drives to those that had more failures. Figure 2 below it is the tabular data color coded for the data. I scaled the data (# of TDs, FGs and Failures) divided by the number of drives to equilibrate all of the teams. Review these figures and then proceed. 

2015 was a typical year composed of teams who excelled (green) and teams who struggled with many failures (red). 

Teams were able to score TDs, some did not score many at all. 

Several Team settled for FGs vs TDs instead. Some did neither. 

Its 2016 preseason and hope springs eternal.  

Teams (NE, CAR, ARI, SEA, PIT, CIN, MIN, NYG, and KC) in green wish to stay there 


red stained teams (CLE, IND, PHI, HOU, SF, MIA, TEN, and LAR) do not. 

As FF players you must see the past as only a setting for the 2016 story that will be unfolding. 


                                  Story 2.  AFC South

Lets start our tale with a series of area graphs which illustrate each of the 4 team's 2015. I call these area graphs a team landscape. T

The categories are : 

A) Ratio of TD/FG. Success Metric. This could point to a kicker. This metric measures the fortitude of the team. Could they get the ball into the endzone for a TD or did they settle for a FG

B/C) Rushing TDs vs Passing TDs. These 2 match pair metrics measure the bias of the 2015 team's scoring success. Does this team going by ground/pound or by air? RBs vs WRs. 

D/E/F) WR_RB or TEs passing TDs. In the Red Zone, what was the mode of TD strikes? RBs WRs or TEs? This should tip yous hand for your first level of focus in 2016 draft.

G/H) Metrics that measure Pass vs Rushing Attempts and Pass vs Rushing Yards Gained. What mode brings home the bacon? (Pass vs Run?) Should allow a focus to or from WRs RBs and or TEs. 

I) A simple ratio metric of Pass vs Rushing Scoring! This confirms the emphasis the team had in 2015. Run first Pass First or Balanced? 

2015 Story of the HOU Team. 

This team scored TDs to FG at near average levels but the scoring was very biased to passing. The level of injuries really hurt the HOU rushing game (-11). In the red zone, this team spread the ball around but the TE seemed to benefit. The actual passing ATT and YDs were below average. 

Current Public View of HOU. 

The public currently looking into this team actually see them as above average and at 53.3 is considered a top team. Surprising considering the 2015 story. Looking into the position rankings, HOU is seen as strong at the RB and very strong at WR but the QB not so much. I think the QB is underrated as the WRs are solid and this team was a ok passing team in 2015. (not great). 

The positional balance is very much shifted to the WR (39% RB to 56% WR). So the team is very dependent on that position and injuries could be devastating.

The public sees the future for 2016 in Hopkins and Miller at RB, Foster will be at MIA this year! Brock is not highly thought of with a ranking of 8. (Poor) 


2015 Story of the IND Team

IND in 2015 was a non-efficient team with Luck being injured. The TD to FG ratio was not strong and average. Frank Gore did score via rushing but the WRs did deliver. Passing was strong in this team so with Luck back expect a move way up. The potential is there. TEs was not used well and WR and RB were used in the red zone ok. Passing ATTs and YDs were nice and point the way. Expect more in 2016.   

The public sees the IND as 40.7 and -3 below average. I think they are seeing the 2015 too literally. Opportunities here for improved 2016 story. FYI HOU and JAC are rated above IND? 

At the positional level, IND is credited with a very good QB (70) and just a 54 on the WR. Hard to balance those numbers.  This is the opposite issue as was seen in HOU. I think the WRs can be higher by the end of the 2016 season. Watch and draft those WRs. The RB and TEs are not well respected and nothing suggests an vast improvement. So its the LUCK and his WRs show. 

Balance wise IND is biased to the QB and WRs and not so to the TE and RB. 

The public ranks Luck and TY as solid with a 70 and 84 rating. Given the 2015 story, Gore may be overrated and I would think he is a low RB2/High RB3 type. The TEs is not respected at 22. Avoid! 


2015 Story of the JAC Team

The JAC team had a lot of hope and they did have a above water TD to FG scoring but just average. Their rushing was lacking and they made their living via the pass to their 2 solid WRs. They put together a solid passing show in ATTs and Yds. Their RB and TEs were weak. Passing was the scoring method. They were a nice one dimensional team. They need to improve in the RB and TE to move up. So they can have a solid year but watch for RB and TEs to move up. 

They are ranked second in the division and can have a run at the title as they have a overall ranking by the public of a 52 vs a 53 for the HOU team. Both teams have the pass mojo but JAC has a much better QB.  I think that IND vs JAC is the battle. 

In positional rankings, the public sees that JAC has a solid WR group with a 82 ranking. The other positions are just ho-hum. 

In the positional balance the public sees the WRs as the dominate scoring threat. Nothing else. 

Player rankings show the continued theme of nicely ranked WRs and average other players. So all the eggs of this team is in the WR basket. Injury freedom gives JAC a shot to win this group! 


2015 Story of the TEN Team

In 2015, the Ten when they scored it was by TD and they have few FGs. The team had the TE scoring in the red zone, with average RBs and sad group of WRs as ranked by scoring. A story of an average passing team. Ranking last in this group. Cherry pick your players carefully. 
The public does not support TEN's chances in 2016. They are ranked at 36 as one of the league's bottom few. Positional analysis shows some support of the TE and RBs but the QB and WRs are not ranked well. TEN must have their passing game move into the WR group. 

The balance as determined by the public is biased to the RB/TE and the QB and WR are lowly supported. 

The public does appreciate the TE Walker at 60 and Murray at 72 but the sad others are an anchor to keep the TEN team down. Looks like its draft 2 in a day and the others stay away! 

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