Friday, July 22, 2016

AFC West__Analysis__Story Telling


"Psychologists have referred to stories as "psychologically privileged," meaning that our minds treat stories differently than other types of material. People find stories interesting, easy to understand, and easy to remember. "

So I am going tell tell you stories about conferences and divisions in the next 8 articles. 

I do this to help you think about the data landscapes and remember information to use going into your drafts.  

The professor now assigns you homework. Take your data and opinions and make your own stories. 

The prologue to my stories is shown in the first two figures

Figure 1 is a landscape view and the overall stories are there to see. Its an overview and goes from teams that had fewer failed drives to those that had more failures. Figure 2 below it is the tabular data color coded for the data. I scaled the data (# of TDs, FGs and Failures) divided by the number of drives to equilibrate all of the teams. Review these figures and then proceed. 

2015 was a typical year composed of teams who excelled (green) and teams who struggled with many failures (red). 

Teams were able to score TDs, some did not score many at all. 

Several Team settled for FGs vs TDs instead. Some did neither. 

Its 2016 preseason and hope springs eternal.  

Teams (NE, CAR, ARI, SEA, PIT, CIN, MIN, NYG, and KC) in green wish to stay there 


red stained teams (CLE, IND, PHI, HOU, SF, MIA, TEN, and LAR) do not. 

As FF players you must see the past as only a setting for the 2016 story that will be unfolding. 


                                  Story 4.  AFC West

Lets start our tale with a series of area graphs which illustrate each of the 4 team's 2015. I call these area graphs a team landscape. T

The categories are : 

A) Ratio of TD/FG. Success Metric. This could point to a kicker. This metric measures the fortitude of the team. Could they get the ball into the endzone for a TD or did they settle for a FG

B/C) Rushing TDs vs Passing TDs. These 2 match pair metrics measure the bias of the 2015 team's scoring success. Does this team going by ground/pound or by air? RBs vs WRs. 

D/E/F) WR_RB or TEs passing TDs. In the Red Zone, what was the mode of TD strikes? RBs WRs or TEs? This should tip yous hand for your first level of focus in 2016 draft.

G/H) Metrics that measure Pass vs Rushing Attempts and Pass vs Rushing Yards Gained. What mode brings home the bacon? (Pass vs Run?) Should allow a focus to or from WRs RBs and or TEs. 

I) A simple ratio metric of Pass vs Rushing Scoring! This confirms the emphasis the team had in 2015. Run first Pass First or Balanced? 


 The Story of the DEN Team

In 2015 the DEN Team was not efficient. They had a -7 TD to FG ratio (Below Average). Given the QB issues it is not surprising that the DEF and the Rushing game kept them in the games. They had a nice +11 Rushing scoring while having a -11 passing TD scoring activity. When they did score via passing in the red zone it was by the WR. Their RBs and TEs did not contribute to the passing game. They was average in ATTs and YDs by passing. They scored by rushing! They must correct the QB issues and try to get the RBs and TEs in the passing game more. Can they do it? 

In 2016, the Public ranks DEN as 3rd in this group. Slightly below average. The public is seeing the potential train-wreck that the TEAM could be. Positional Analysis show the public respects the WRs but not the RB corp. No TEs are on the radar.

The Balance in the DEN Team is very clear and biased to the WRs

The Public loves the RB Anderson only. The other two RBs as not respected. What happens if Anderson is hurt? It would be a RBBC with Booker having a slight amount of value over Hillman. The Public loves the WRs and is all in of both. The interesting thing is the lack of QB respect! The WRs are more riskier than the public may think! 


The Story of the KCC Team. 

In 2015 the team was slight below average in thge TD to FG ratio. They depended on the running game (+17) and had a poor passing TD scoring (-17). The red zone scoring was below average and not position was above average. The passing ATTs and YDs were also below average. They had a poor Pass/Run TD scoring (-8.6)
I am not sure anything has changed for this year.

In 2016, the public thinks this team is the number two in this group. Slightly above average. Nothing dramatic. Positional analysis show that the public likes all positions with the WRs ranked at 77%. The RBs ar 61% and TE are at 59%. So the public supports the Team but more than the 2015 would suggest. The public seems to expect an overall improvement. 

The balance predicted by the public is fairly equal. The WRs are 39% of the Team's show. That figure seems to be a fair number. The RBs are a little low with 31% and the TE with Kelce is a little high given the weakness of this Team's passing. See 2015. I do not expect a big change. 

The public love JC with 91% (A nice ranking when he is healthy) He is supported by the 2015 narrative of a run based scoring Team. The TE is at 59.2 (high?) and Maclin is the one WR at 77.6. The passing game the public think is the TE1 and WR1. Any injuries in the TE or WR would put a bind on the Team. Living on a thread! 


The OAK Team's Story 2015

This team was very efficient with a +11 TD to FG ratio (nice). The show was focused on the pass with a +13 while the run scoring was a -13. One trick pony team. The passing was so good that all positions int eh red zone were above average.  Nice series of numbers the RBs and TEs were really strong here vs the WRs. Interesting mix! You do not see that alot. Watch this team! The Passing ATTs and YDs was also nice with +10 and +6.7 (solid). This sets up for an improving Team in 2016! 

The public in 2016 ranks them last. I think this is two low and would push them up to potentially fighting SD for the top spot! Analysis of the public's view of positions is light on the QB and RB bot stronger on the WR (73%). Again I think Carr has the chance to move up and is a late round QB target for me. I like the RB Murray as well. 

Balance analysis of the positions show the public sees the TEAM as WR dominate with a 46% of the show. I would drop that number and add to the QB and RB to get closer to a three way balance! They tells me draft bargains could be had! 

Players that are highly ranked by the public are the WR crew of Cooper at 89 and Crabtree at 57.7. Nice numbers and certainly the public sees strength here. Murray is well regarded with a 74. The new RB might be a sleeper if Murray goes down. Carr at 42% is low, he should be higher. He could be a QB1! Draft late!


The SDC TEAM's story. 

2015 was a down year, they was slightly below average in TD to FGs ratios. They were inefficient! 

When scoring in was by passing with a +18 (nice). However, rushing was weak at -18. Passing was the show even in the RBs. Woodhead's effect is seen in the red zone passing scoring. with a health +7. Note the TE and WR were solidly below average! However, the saving grace was that SDC couyld move the ball by passing. See the +11 and +21 in ATTs and YDs A +21 is remarkable. It just shows the passing reliance this Team had in 2015!  So SDC needs to get the running going and if they can it will allow them to win this group. If not, they open the door for others! 

The public really likes the SDC team and ranks them first with a good marigin of 54% 10+ above average! The positions are RB and WR baised with 63 and 65% rankings. The QB is at 42 and TE is ignored at 23%. The Qb rankings seems ok but the TE (Gates could be low)

The public's ranking show a 33 and 32% WR to RB rating. The QB at 22 and TE at 13%. The TE could be low. Watch! 

Players ranked are Woodhead at 71 (nice) he could with a Gordon injury be a RB1 in PPR. I have been drafting him as much as possible. Gordon is expected to be the runner. I think give the story is that Gordon is being used to keep the defenses honest and allow SDC to pass pass! Allen the WR1 is rated at 91%. Extra Good. Note the drop-off to Benjy! Allen needs to stay health or the SDC will be off balance and my not recover! I think this implies that the fulcrum of this Team are the WRs and Allen being injured is a Team changer! If Benjy can setup he would be a great sleeper. (Risk vs Reward!)

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