Sunday, July 3, 2016

Analysis of My Recent MFL 10 Draft. Part 2.

Analysis of My Recent MFL 10 Draft. Part 2

Things I like to analyze at the landscape level in any draft.

1) Analysis of Draft Picks by NFL Teams.

Are some team over-represented and under-represented? 
Are some players missed in the lower draft teams? 
Who are the players that I was surprised at? 

Figure 1 presents the numerical counts of the draft picks in this MFL 10 (240 picks total)

LA had only 4 players drafted. 
CLE, DEN, NYJ had only 5 players drafted. 

Who did we all miss? 

BAL had 11 players drafted. Why? Are all 11 worthy? 
GB, NE and PIT had 10 players drafted. Those were not surprises. 

These data can help you in your next draft. Especially if you see sleepers within the lower drafted from Teams. Now is the time to double check those Teams!


Figure 2 to 4 represent the Numerical counts of RB, TE and WRs. 
The same questions and analysis applies using this data.

I am doing 5 MFL 10s this season and I am planning on combining the data to see the patterns. I will report later in a blog post to help you for your future drafts. 




2) Draft Flow Analysis.

In part 1 of this series, I detailed how I use patterns to help plan my drafting! Review that and previous MFL ADP analysis. 

Figure 5 presents the pattern for this draft and highlights the positions and time they were picked. Runs were easily seen and conclusions can be drawn. I have taken my picks out and surrounded them by various symbols. This allows you to see what was the environment that I was picking into. 

My First 6 picks were WR RB WR WR WR WR. This is a very ZERO RB approach. 

Remember the answer to the ZERO RB approach has been discussed in my TEXTBOOK (AMAZON). The answer is not always Yes or NO but its sometimes! Buy the book and give and early XMAS gifts. Early and Often. Wait to July 5 though, I will update my Players Ranking and Risk values in PPR, STD and Half PPR. Commercial Over! :)

Part 1 (yesterday) described my plans etc. Read and come back. 


The next figures are a treat for the members of this league. These Colorized Graphs represent the actual pattern of positions that were drafted and when. 

This is the kind of data all should keep in your victory diary (See previous post). I am playing 5 leagues and can then see if I win any, I can "see" my patterns, Did my RBs payoff? Early vs Late Players? Where are my Strengths and Weaknesses in MFL 10s?

So I am playing for next year! 

Note I believe that we all have cognitive biases that must be handled to help in our success. In my Textbook, I deal with these issues. I think that 2 very specific biases occur in drafting. 

1) Fear of the "Out of Balanced Team" 

2) Fear of being too late/early to draft a position or player

I think these ideas are bouncing around and influence drafting. Jump too soon or too late? It feels good (cognitive dissonance is solved) to draft in the middle of a position run. Everyone if grabbing a QB etc. I should too. You feel better and balanced when you follow along. It must be time because everyone else is doing it! 

This is not be critical of anyone! As humans these are our gremlins that are tearing into our brains. We look out the window and we have to make them disappear by solving our cognitive dissonance! 

I highlight the times in the draft where players achieved balance in both RB and WRs. In most drafts that balance point tends to be in rounds 6 to 8. (Pink Arrow Head) 

In this draft

6/12 players balanced at the 6th round

3/12 players balanced by the 9th round

2/12 players balanced by the 12th round

1/12 player never balanced

The point is when you look at your drafts are you balancing because of value and overlays (Sleepers) or not?

Do you win or not with this pattern? 

Questions not judgement. Judgement determination is for you to do after the season.

FYI I am the Whackers Team. This is my nickname from my first league. Everyone had to accept what the league named you! 

I present these exploding doughnut graph breakouts of the draft patterns employed by each player!

I present my rankings of each team. I calculated the Team's player My RANKINGS averages. I then determine the league average and transformed the Team rankings by scaling the Teams rating to the average. 

How much is the Team above or below the league average. 

I like this as a way to "see" a group of data. 

I highlight the Top Three Teams with a Red Star. Good Job! My Team is about average and I am 5th or so out of 12.

You try to make good decisions. That is all one can do. 

I graphed this table to see the data in a visual way

The next two figures present my "secret" player risk analysis. I use a combination of numerical and subjective factors to calculate my risk figures. I am still modifying this approach but I use what I got. 

I averaged each team's players risk, calculated the league average and scaled the rankings to the average as above. I also graphed the scale numbers as well. Green are low risk teams (better?), yellow teams have average risk and red teams have high risk. 

Again I urge all to save data into your diary and review and think! Rinse and Repeat! 

Thanks to all the players in this MFL 10. We had a good draft and we were not too cranky with each other. Good Luck!

I will review my results in all my MFL10s down the road. Watch for it. I will be glad to call out the winner in this league! 

Happy 4th. Many have paid so we can have our freedoms. Remember! 

Dr. John Bush

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