Thursday, July 7, 2016

Chapter 2. Solving Psychological Temperament and Human Biases Puzzle 7/5/16. Winning-Your-Fantasy-Football-Draft-ebook Bonus Chapter 2 from this book! Read it and then buy the book! Thanks

Updated with Double Secret Extra Good Facts and Figures cooked into a data rich "crush your league" pie!

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Updated 7/5/16. Winning-Your-Fantasy-Football-Draft-ebook

Table of Contents

Chapter 1. Personal Factors
Chapter 2. Solving Psychological Temperament and Human Biases Puzzle
Chapter 3. Understanding Stats in Fantasy Football: Limitations and Uses
Chapter 4. Clues for Drafting; Positional Stats, Variations, and Volatility.
Chapter 5. Clues for Drafting; Team Analysis and Distribution of PPR Points to each Position.
Chapter 6. Clues for Drafting; ADP vs. Seasonal Player Performance
PPR levels
Chapter 7. Clues for Drafting; 2016 Seasonal Projections
Chapter 8. Draft Preparations and Testing; Finding Anti-Sleepers vs. Sleepers
Chapter 9. Draft Preparations and Testing; Scenario Modeling Using Mock Drafting
Chapter 10. Draft Preparations and Testing; Draft Action Plans and Predictable Decisions
Chapter 11.  After the Draft Stress-Tests and Analysis
Chapter 12. Specialized Articles from my Blog
Chapter 13. Useful Data for the 2016 Draft Season.
Chapter 14.  2016 Key Data To Be Used for Your Drafts
6/1/16_Updated Stats and Figures

NEW Stuff!!!

Updated information to be used for your Drafting

Risk Levels from MFL 10s Data

MFL Data Positional Information. Picks 1 to 240

Graph of MFL 10 25s Positional Runs by Draft Round

Tabular View of the Above Graph.

Colors highlight the dominate position picked at each round.

Positional Graphing for STD Scoring Leagues

Comparison between STD and PPR Drafting by Position

Positional Bias Mapping PPR to STD WRs

Positional Bias Mapping PPR to STD RBs

Graphical Accounting of Positions Drafted by Running Total.



Risk Levels by Team (Average and Scaled Average Numbers)

My Team Average Rankings Raw and Scaled to League Average.

Area Graphs of My Rankings Focusing on the RB and WR Positions

Comparison of Team Positions under PPR, Half PT PPR and STD.

Green Highlights the Scoring System with the Highest Rankings

“All-N-One” Professors Rankings.

My Ranks (Green High/Red Low),
My Risk Analysis (Blue Low Risk/Red High Risk)
Sleeper Score (Sleeper Potential) (Green High/Red Low).

ALL N ONE Rankings Risk and Sleepers

By Scoring System and Position


Current Fantasy Football Color Coded Tiers By Position and Scoring System
(Print and Use for your Drafts _)


Current ADP Based View of Players Expected Team Usage (Passing Targets)

Positional Rankings By Current PPR ADP with Color Coded Expected Team Usage

Landscape View of the Expected Positional Team Usage


Bonus   Chapter 2

 Chapter 2. Solving Psychological Temperament and Human Biases Puzzle

            Literature on investment strategies analyzes how personality or temperament affects investment success in the stock market.  The field also recognizes that cognitive biases exist in all humans and are the mental traps that lessen our successes. This chapter will focus on those areas that all fantasy football players need to master.

Temperament and Delayed Gratification

            These same principles used in stock market investing can also be applied to analyze how your temperament affects your fantasy football play.  Are you a careful, deliberate person or completely spur of the moment? Are you a confident decision maker or do you worry and second-guess yourself?   Can you wait on the results with great patience or do you need instant feedback for immediate gratification? Can you change your mind and quickly adjust if the situation requires or do you staunchly stick to your guns once you make up your mind?

            I divide players into FF Temperament Types.  Accordingly, you need to assess your temperament by thinking about where you fall within these personality attributes. 

Figure 4 illustrates these attributes.

Figure 4. Personality Trait Scale for Investors.

            The literature suggests the best personality traits for investors are those that are careful yet confident with the capacity for delayed gratification and able to adjust on the fly. Since FF is a type of investment, these principles are helpful to assess your strengths and weaknesses in FF play.  I suggest you thoughtfully analyze where you fall in these areas. Ask your friends their opinions. If you know some good FF players, determine their personality strengths and how you can move towards those traits.

            On the other hand, a player that makes decisions quickly and excessively second-guesses himself is most likely not a winner.  These players, if they are lucky enough to win tend to never change their ways even if the house is burning down and the game has changed! Every year, FF will change and the ground beneath is never solid. Taking a hard look at how your temperament and personality affects your play will open your eyes to mistakes you may have previously made and help you focus on avoiding future mistakes.

Challenges and Biases

            “Heuristics is defined as: Usually gives reasonably good results quickly & easily but can fail unpredictably. However, some of these heuristical failures can be predicted; these types of failures are based on cognitive biases or ‘hidden traps.’ Most of these heuristics can work well or can turn into harmful biases in any of the stages of problem solving, but the details differ depending on what stage of problem solving you are in. Similarly, most of the heuristics are used (and abused) by people of all cognitive styles, but again the details differ depending on what cognitive style you are using.”  Source _

            Heuristics in the context of fantasy football can be defined as decision-making that employs quick rules, which are not optimized in either methods/approaches. FF heuristics exist because no one can predict the future. FF heuristic-based rules can be used to speed up the process of finding both sleepers and “studs”.  Consider FF heuristics to be shortcuts to make a decision for your draft. Examples include using a rule of thumb (always draft a RB or never draft a defense early etc.), an educated guess (based on my analysis/new coach/new system/free agents that team is going to use its TE much more this year), an intuitive judgment, stereotyping (I always do this and win), profiling or common sense (Late QB vs. Early QB).

            Cognitive biases are the traps that FF players must acknowledge and avoid in the fast-paced approach to a draft decision. Biases should be considered tendencies that lead us away from good or better judgments. There are many documented cognitive biases. I will focus on those that I believe are germane to FF players. 

Common Biases and Their Solutions

A. Confirmation Bias.

            A confirmation bias exists when you look to prove a conclusion and ignore evidence to the contrary. If you only look for positive data in your draft preparations then you can miss the outliers. You tend to gloss over any suggestions that your conclusion could be faulty.  An example is a popular rule that drafting 2 RBs in the first rounds is a winning approach. Thus, as you filter through news reports, radio and TV shows, the twittersphere and the web, you focus only on positive data that supports your decision and thus feel very confident.

            To combat this bias, I suggest you form a question and then ask the opposite of it. Therefore in the case of drafting two RB’s in the first rounds, ask yourself “can you win by not drafting 2 RBs within the first few rounds?” What evidence exists to tear down this hypothesis?  What about in your leagues? Was there a winner who drafted Gronk and 2 WR 1s? (Zero RB concept). If you play in multiple leagues keep track of the draft and look back after week 17 and examine the drafts of the winners. Find evidence from writers that support the opposite approach than that of drafting two round 1 and 2 RBs.

B. Overconfidence or Over-Prudence

            Overconfidence implies that you have decided the conclusions beforehand and you refuse have any doubts. This path leads to self-delusion. However, the opposite can be true and in over-prudence, your estimates and conclusions are too safe and conservative.  Over-prudence leads to missing sleepers while drafting the safe or obvious player. In either situation you either draft too many gambles or not enough.
Understanding your temperament as previously discussed can let you predict where you fall on the scale from Over to Under Confidence. Fighting these two biases requires you to know yourself. Do you only play when it’s a sure thing or you like to gamble on the direction of the wind?

            If you are overconfident, then compare your rankings to the current Average Draft Position (ADP), which is an expression of collective wisdom in the field.   Why are there differences? If you see a high ADP ranked player such as an RB60, write out a multi-hypothesis break down to establish the key points you feel rank him as a RB10. Then write down opposite evidence as to why the public might be right. What are they seeing that you are ignoring? See Chapter 9 for problem solving with multi-hypotheses.
The opposite bias occurs because you are too prudent. You discount that rookie RB who the public rates as a RB15. You rank him undraftable! Again see Chapter 9 for problem solving with multi-hypotheses.

C. Status Quo

            The bias of the status quo can be summarized as “I used this approach last year and won so I don’t need to change my ways.” Your bias is really against any new changes or better approaches. Never be satisfied with how you are playing FF. Be awake to the new patterns and ways to win.

D. Hindsight Bias

            The hindsight bias is explained as thinking that all events are easily explained after the fact. A person believes he or she "knew it all along". As the song says hindsight is always 20/20. Force yourself to write down your thoughts beforehand then check the accuracy of the results afterward. Your drafted players are your predictions. Study your choices after the season is over. Remember the data suggests FF players are about 60% right and 40% wrong on average in drafts. After your draft, write down where you are gambling on picks or where you were not happy with your draft. How do these ideas play out over the season? Were you right or wrong?

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