Saturday, July 30, 2016

NFC East__Analysis__Story Telling


"Psychologists have referred to stories as "psychologically privileged," meaning that our minds treat stories differently than other types of material. People find stories interesting, easy to understand, and easy to remember. "

So I am going tell tell you stories about conferences and divisions in the next 8 articles. 

I do this to help you think about the data landscapes and remember information to use going into your drafts.  

The professor now assigns you homework. Take your data and opinions and make your own stories. 

The prologue to my stories is shown in the first two figures

Figure 1 is a landscape view and the overall stories are there to see. Its an overview and goes from teams that had fewer failed drives to those that had more failures. Figure 2 below it is the tabular data color coded for the data. I scaled the data (# of TDs, FGs and Failures) divided by the number of drives to equilibrate all of the teams. Review these figures and then proceed. 

2015 was a typical year composed of teams who excelled (green) and teams who struggled with many failures (red). 

Teams were able to score TDs, some did not score many at all. 

Several Team settled for FGs vs TDs instead. Some did neither. 

Its 2016 preseason and hope springs eternal.  

Teams (NE, CAR, ARI, SEA, PIT, CIN, MIN, NYG, and KC) in green wish to stay there 


red stained teams (CLE, IND, PHI, HOU, SF, MIA, TEN, and LAR) do not. 

As FF players you must see the past as only a setting for the 2016 story that will be unfolding. 


                                  Story 4. NFC East

Lets start our tale with a series of area graphs which illustrate each of the 4 team's 2015. I call these area graphs a team landscape. T

The categories are : 

A) Ratio of TD/FG. Success Metric. This could point to a kicker. This metric measures the fortitude of the team. Could they get the ball into the endzone for a TD or did they settle for a FG

B/C) Rushing TDs vs Passing TDs. These 2 match pair metrics measure the bias of the 2015 team's scoring success. Does this team going by ground/pound or by air? RBs vs WRs. 

D/E/F) WR_RB or TEs passing TDs. In the Red Zone, what was the mode of TD strikes? RBs WRs or TEs? This should tip yous hand for your first level of focus in 2016 draft.

G/H) Metrics that measure Pass vs Rushing Attempts and Pass vs Rushing Yards Gained. What mode brings home the bacon? (Pass vs Run?) Should allow a focus to or from WRs RBs and or TEs. 

I) A simple ratio metric of Pass vs Rushing Scoring! This confirms the emphasis the team had in 2015. Run first Pass First or Balanced? 


The 2015 Story of DAL

Dal was a very inefficient team in 2015. Given the injuries they did better though than expected. The TD to FG ratio was still -12 which is not good at all. They was slight biased to using rushing as a way to score with a +3 while the pass scoring was a -3. When they did pass it was to the WR and that category has a +13. RB and TE had a -13 and -7. Not Strong. Pass ATTs and YDs gained were below average. Not a good story!

This year the public has rated them at 37.5 or -6.5 below average. But with this division they are still expected to be competitive. The public sees the NFC East as below average as a division. Positional analysis reveal the Public continue to be high on the WR and expect a full bounce back. They was really down on the TE! and not very strong on the QB and RB position. 

The balance is very biased to the WR as being the whole show in DAL! 

Player analysis shows that Elliott is the complete hope for the RB DAL Team. If any injured etc hits its capacity is predicted not to be strong. The QB and TE are below average and not thought to be a factor. The Public also places the whole WR production to DEZ, Again injure would place the DAL team in a very large bind. I am not sure that I will invest in the backups this season! Be cautious! 


The story of the NYG in 2015

This team was average in scoring efficiency. Nothing to write home about. The 2015 NYG team was very biased to the pass for its scoring with a 18 while rushing was way below average with a -18. In the red zone the scoring was to the WR with a +10 score above average. However, the NYG pass to its TE and RBs to stay average in both positions in passing TDs. The team did well in both ATTs and YDs with a +6 average. The bias of passing to scoring was +23. If the team is to win they will have to step up in rushing. I am not sure the current crew can do that. Watch and wait. 

In the 2016 the public rates the NYG as -8 below average. Not a rousing endorsement! Positional analysis sees the team as average or close in the QB and WRs but below average in the RB. The public thinks the 2016 story will be much like the 2015 story! 

The NYG team is biased to the WR and RBs.  

Player analysis sees the QB as average. The main RB is R Jennings and he is rated as a 48 out of 100, average. Note the WRs of OBD and S Shepard are seen as a doublet average and top WR. So this team has more injury rebound potential. I am looking to acquire the Rookie at the right price. Good Shopping! The TE is not on the radar. Expect the WRs being the show! 


The story of the 2015 PHI Team. 

This team was nicely efficient in TD to FG ratio with a score of +8. They did it via their RBs with a +9 score and were less successful using their WRs (-9). They were a balanced team in the red zone with their WR rated as +3, RBs at 0 and TE at -4. The Passing ATTs and YDs were average. So they had a good 2015 but will need to up the WR game to win this division. 

For 2016, the public rates them last in this weak division. They will have to improve to win the division. The public rates the RB, TE and WR are below average near 36 ish. Not a strong group. Note the QB position is ignored! 

The PHI Team is balanced but no QB ranked!
Player analysis suggests that Ryan Mathews is nicely ranked at 67 and Jordan Matthews at 70. So its a 2 player team. the backups are at the scrub level. The TE is below average. Injures may determine this teams fate. 


The 2015 Story of WAS. 

This team was average in efficiency with a +2. They did it with their WRs (+7) while they were below average in rushing scoring (-7). They heavily used their TE, Reed and Paul. (+13). The TE score was super high. They in balance int he red zone under used their WRs and RBs. (-13 and -3). The RBs were certainly better than WRs! So as with all of these teams, improvement is needed. Whatever team just moves the positional success a little can have a nice advantage in this division. 

In 2016, the public has ranked them 1st in this weak division. The public continues to expect the useage of the TE. They are following the 2015 story script! Note the WR are seen as the weak position at 25 while the RB and QB are ranked around 36 ish. We see that NYG has the top QB, WAS has the best RB, DAL was the best WR and WAS has the best TE. WAS is thought to own 2 of the 4 pieces! 

WAS is biased to the WR with 44 even though the TE was the show last year!

Player analysis shows that WAS has a good RB with Matt Jones at 70. They have the top TE with a score of 77. The WR that is rated about average is D Jackson. This team has multiple pieces here worthy of drafting. I think the QB is being undervalued as well! Good Luck shopping in this division. 

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