Friday, July 29, 2016

NFC West__Analysis__Story Telling


"Psychologists have referred to stories as "psychologically privileged," meaning that our minds treat stories differently than other types of material. People find stories interesting, easy to understand, and easy to remember. "

So I am going tell tell you stories about conferences and divisions in the next 8 articles. 

I do this to help you think about the data landscapes and remember information to use going into your drafts.  

The professor now assigns you homework. Take your data and opinions and make your own stories. 

The prologue to my stories is shown in the first two figures

Figure 1 is a landscape view and the overall stories are there to see. Its an overview and goes from teams that had fewer failed drives to those that had more failures. Figure 2 below it is the tabular data color coded for the data. I scaled the data (# of TDs, FGs and Failures) divided by the number of drives to equilibrate all of the teams. Review these figures and then proceed. 

2015 was a typical year composed of teams who excelled (green) and teams who struggled with many failures (red). 

Teams were able to score TDs, some did not score many at all. 

Several Team settled for FGs vs TDs instead. Some did neither. 

Its 2016 preseason and hope springs eternal.  

Teams (NE, CAR, ARI, SEA, PIT, CIN, MIN, NYG, and KC) in green wish to stay there 


red stained teams (CLE, IND, PHI, HOU, SF, MIA, TEN, and LAR) do not. 

As FF players you must see the past as only a setting for the 2016 story that will be unfolding. 


                                  Story 5.  NFC West

Lets start our tale with a series of area graphs which illustrate each of the 4 team's 2015. I call these area graphs a team landscape. T

The categories are : 

A) Ratio of TD/FG. Success Metric. This could point to a kicker. This metric measures the fortitude of the team. Could they get the ball into the endzone for a TD or did they settle for a FG

B/C) Rushing TDs vs Passing TDs. These 2 match pair metrics measure the bias of the 2015 team's scoring success. Does this team going by ground/pound or by air? RBs vs WRs. 

D/E/F) WR_RB or TEs passing TDs. In the Red Zone, what was the mode of TD strikes? RBs WRs or TEs? This should tip yous hand for your first level of focus in 2016 draft.

G/H) Metrics that measure Pass vs Rushing Attempts and Pass vs Rushing Yards Gained. What mode brings home the bacon? (Pass vs Run?) Should allow a focus to or from WRs RBs and or TEs. 

I) A simple ratio metric of Pass vs Rushing Scoring! This confirms the emphasis the team had in 2015. Run first Pass First or Balanced? 


The 2015 Story of ARI

The 2015 ARI team was fairly efficient and had a +8 TD to FG ratio. They was a balanced team between scoring by running and passing. In the passing scoring it was to the three main WRs. A troubling sign though is the -6 on passing ATT and -0.3 for passing YDs. Given the QBs age and the nice RB they have, the passing game may not meet expectations especially with three strong WRs.  

The 2016 public surprisingly sees them as ranked second to SF. That is interesting. This is a strong group as all are above league average. The public will be drafting heavily from this division. The public's view of the positions shows the WRs are ranked at 66.8 as a group. This is somewhat lower than I would have thought. The RB and QB are also ranked above 50%. The public sees balance but again in a PPR league this could be an issue for the WRs. Be cautious! 

The public ranked ARI as a balanced team with the WRs have 38% of the scoring potential! This is best in the league but not as high as some teams! 

The public sees the RB as the star of this Team with a 96% ranking. Note the non-domaniance of either one of the three WRs. The public does not know either. 

They guess its 

M Floyd>L Fitz>J Brown. 

Again the scoring balance and the lower 2015 passing ATTs give me concern. The QB is average at 52.1% 


The LAR story from 2015. 

 This team in 2015 left points on the field as indicated with a -2 TD to FG ratio. The RB was the show and the +29 is very strong. The problem is the -29 passing scoring. The Team was out of balance and a rushing strength did not overcome the passing weakness! When the Team passed and scored they did use the WR (+20) and TE (+9) vs the RB (-13). The passing scoring number were very good but the actual amounts of passing scoring was very low and very much below average. A major weakness! 

Moving to 2016, the public see this team as having no QB or TE. They rank the team as the RB Gurley as 70% of the show. This out of balance view is not surprising but its looking like a one player team! 

The public in 2016 sees the RB Gurley at 97. This is a strong rank and only ranked T Austin as the main WR. T Austin could be a late round sleeper as the main passing scoring threat but the lack of opportunities is an issue! 


The Story of SFO 2015. 

The story was inefficiency as they had a -9 in TD to FG ratio. They left points on the field. Certainly a balanced team in average scoring by running and passing. When the team scored it was using its TE. The TE is a sleeper as the public is not even looking at that position on this team. (Bargain Alert). The TE has a +13, that is a strong number and it seems the public is missing this piece! The passing ATTs and YDs were below average slightly. Nothing but the TE seems to be worth some attention. 

The public likes the RB alot and that gives them a high Team ranking. I think the TE adds to this ranking. They could surprise. At the position level, the RB Hyde is the show with a solid 75% and the WRs are seen as weak. The TE and QB are ignored! 

The Team is out of balance and it favors the RB. Note though that the division has similar WRs that are near each other! Note the strongest division to draft WRs from! 

The public loves Hyde and has a low interest with T Smith. Given the WRs in this division he might be higher ranked at the end of the season than id though now. Do not forget the TE, V McDonald, a late TE choice! 


The 2015 Story of SEA.  

This team was average in their TD to FG ratio with a +2. That is just ok. The show was scoring by passing. D Baldwin really stepped up. The WRs was rated a +14. Very strong. Note the TEs was a factor with a +17 that is a strong score for a TE. I think the public may be sleeping on Graham as a late TE. Watch List for sure. The trouble is in the ATTs and Yds. This scored TDs but not as much passing and yds for the PPR players. Be carefully on Baldwin he and do not pay too much!

In 2016 the public rates SEA last but its a close group. They are not factoring in the QBs running ability! Positional analysis shows the QB, RB and WRs are above the average in the high 50s and 60s. This is a good balance and will give SEA all the pieces they need. Note the TE is ranked at 38 and that may be low! 

The balance of this team is to the QB and WRs but the RBs are close. The TE is only at 17% of the show yet in TE passing scoring from 2015 the TE here was at +17. 
Finally the Public ranks the Wilson at 67 and Rawls is strongly supported at 79. Baldwin and Tyler are also supported. The public sees the three pieces as highly ranked as a group. The SEA and ARI teams share this characteristic as well. Graham is a late TE possibility at 38. That could be low! Watch him. 

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