PART 1. MFL 10 Drafting. This is a Account of my Recent Draft in a MFL. Preparations, Plans, and Execution. I had a great time! Thanks League!

PART 1. MFL 10 Drafting. This is a Account of my Recent Draft in a MFL.   Preparations, Plans, and Execution. I had a great time!   Thanks League!  

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Preparation Begins

Real-time Blog Begins 6/17/16

MFL 10 

Link to the MFL 10 I will be discussing. My Team is Whackers

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These 3 are links to my previous articles that formed a basis for my MFL 10 draft plans



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Plans Based on these Articles.

 

I posted these to my blog the above entries way before this draft and I generated the following predictions.

In the first 6 picks I expect the top 5 WRs to go. MFL drafts have been WR biased. My draft plans as of 20 minutes out is to take two solid WRs first. Additionally, I plan to take late TEs but will not let G Olsen or J Reed to drop to far.  I am also going late on QB but will take bargains if any occur. I have no particular QB targets and will look at overlay picks.

I expect that the first 3/4 QBs and TEs will be picked by round 6. I will monitor the TE and QB selection in rounds 7 to 9.  My previous posts on positional analysis will be a guide to foresee “runs” on QBs, TEs, and Defs.

So I have specific targets but going to play it straight with no force or grabs!

TEs Run- Rounds 7 to 9


I predict a run on TEs beginning in the 7th round and by the end of the 9th round the first 10 TEs will be gone.

1. Rob Gronkowski NE
2. Jordan Reed WAS
3. Greg Olsen CAR
4. Travis Kelce KC
5. Delanie Walker TEN
6. Coby Fleener NO
7. Tyler Eifert CIN
8. Zach Ertz PHI
9. Julius Thomas JAC
10. Ladarius Green PIT
11. Gary Barnidge CLE
12. Antonio Gates SD

TEs Run- Rounds 10 to 12


The TE run continues with 10 more TEs to be gone by round 12.

11. Gary Barnidge CLE
12. Antonio Gates SD
13. Eric Ebron DET
14. Jason Witten DAL
15. Martellus Bennett NE
16. Jimmy Graham SEA INJ
17. Dwayne Allen IND
18. Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB
19. Jordan Cameron MIA
20. Zach Miller CHI
21. Charles Clay BUF
22. Ben Watson BAL

Decision: How late to wait?


Here are the TE 2 and 3s. I have fondness for those in blue.

23. Clive Walford OAK
44. Brent Celek PHI
24. Kyle Rudolph MIN
45. Jack Doyle IND
25. Jared Cook GB
46. Blake Bell SF
26. Will Tye NYG
47. Tyler Higbee LA
27. Richard Rodgers GB
48. Niles Paul WAS
28. Vance McDonald SF
49. Garrett Celek SF
29. Maxx Williams BAL
50. Ryan Griffin HOU
30. Owen Daniels
51. Thomas Duarte MIA
31. Cameron Brate TB
52. Garrett Graham DEN
32. Hunter Henry SD
53. Dion Sims MIA
33. Austin Hooper ATL
54. Luke Willson SEA
34. Josh Hill NO
55. Jermaine Gresham ARI
35. Jeff Heuerman DEN
56. Darren Fells ARI
36. Larry Donnell NYG
57. Mycole Pruitt MIN
37. Jace Amaro NYJ
58. Jesse James PIT
38. Virgil Green DEN
59. Tyler Kroft CIN
39. Jacob Tamme ATL
60. Gavin Escobar DAL INJ
40. Crockett Gillmore BAL
61. Nick Vannett SEA
41. Lance Kendricks LA
62. Jerell Adams NYG
42. Vernon Davis
63. Marcedes Lewis JAC
43. Mychal Rivera OAK
64. Brandon Pettigrew DET

QB Runs: When to Pick?


A Summary of Predictions

1) Top 3 QBs gone by Round 6    (0.5 QBs per round)
2) Top 8 QBs gone by Round 9   (0.88 QBs per round)

1. Cam Newton CAR
2. Aaron Rodgers GB
3. Andrew Luck IND
4. Russell Wilson SEA
5. Drew Brees NO
6. Ben Roethlisberger PIT
7. Carson Palmer ARI
8. Tom Brady NE S
9. Blake Bortles JAC
10. Eli Manning NYG

3) Top 14 QBs gone by Round 12 (1.167 QBs per Round Picked)

9. Blake Bortles JAC
10. Eli Manning NYG
11. Philip Rivers SD
12. Tony Romo DAL
13. Derek Carr OAK
14. Andy Dalton CIN
15. Marcus Mariota TEN
16. Tyrod Taylor BUF

4) 11 more fall by Round 15. Top 25 are gone.  (1.66 QBs per Round)

15. Marcus Mariota TEN
16. Tyrod Taylor BUF
17. Jameis Winston TB
18. Kirk Cousins WAS
19. Matt Ryan ATL
20. Matthew Stafford DET
21. Ryan Tannehill MIA
22. Jay Cutler CHI
23. Joe Flacco BAL
24. Ryan Fitzpatrick
25. Brock Osweiler HOU
26. Alex Smith KC
27. Teddy Bridgewater MIN
28. Robert Griffin CLE
29. Sam Bradford PHI
30. Colin Kaepernick SF
31. Jared Goff LA
32. Mark Sanchez DEN
33. Blaine Gabbert SF
34. Geno Smith NYJ

Schematically My Plan is at the End of this Draft to have


7
WR
5
RB
2
QB
3
TE
3
DEF

 

Draft Plan Flow Figure


1 to 6


7 to 12

4
WR

6
WR
2
RB

4
RB



1
QB



1
TE

 

Round 13 to 20 unscripted at this point on but will need to complete my order list as seen below.


13 to 20
Pick Ups
1
WR
1
RB
1
QB
2
TE
3
DEF

FIRST DRAFT PICK



 

First Draft Pick was D Hopkins.  Did not take Gurley but it was close close.

2.3 Keenan Allen SD WR
2.2 Adrian Peterson MIN RB
2.1 Allen Robinson JAC WR
1.12 Rob Gronkowski NE TE
1.11 Dez Bryant DAL WR
1.10 Lamar Miller HOU RB
1.9 A.J. Green CIN WR
1.8 David Johnson ARI RB
1.7 Todd Gurley LA RB
1.6 DeAndre Hopkins HOU WR
1.5 Ezekiel Elliott DAL RB
1.4 Julio Jones ATL WR
1.3 Le'Veon Bell PIT RB
1.2 Antonio Brown PIT WR
1.1 Odell Beckham NYG WR

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SECOND DRAFT PICK


Three picks away!  8/12 WR1 gone and 6/12 RBs are gone.
(I was expecting more WRs 10 to 4)

R1 – WR WR RB WR RB WR RB RB WR RB WR TE

R2 -  WR RB WR

My Plan is to for my Second Draft Pick is for another WR

Choices are Below.

13. Amari Cooper OAK         10. Mike Evans TB

12. Brandon Marshall NYJ    11. Keenan Allen SD

Devonta Freeman was still on the board as well. My debate now between him and Marshall at pick 19. I could have walked away from D Freeman and took him instead of Marshall.
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THIRD DRAFT PICK


My Picks in Blue

Currently waiting for 3 more picks

1. Antonio Brown WR - PIT
2. Julio Jones WR - ATL
3. Le'Veon Bell RB - PIT
4. DeAndre Hopkins WR - HOU
5. Odell Beckham WR - NYG
6. Todd Gurley RB - LA
7. Rob Gronkowski TE - NE
8. David Johnson RB - ARI
9. A.J. Green WR - CIN
10. Adrian Peterson RB - MIN
11. Dez Bryant WR - DAL
12. Devonta Freeman RB - ATL
13. Lamar Miller RB - HOU
14. Allen Robinson WR - JAC
15. Alshon Jeffery WR - CHI
16. Ezekiel Elliott RB - DAL
17. Jordy Nelson WR - GB
18. Mike Evans WR - TB
19. Jamaal Charles RB - KC
20. Keenan Allen WR - SD
21. Brandon Marshall WR - NYJ
22. Mark Ingram RB - NO
23. Amari Cooper WR - OAK
24. Demaryius Thomas WR - DEN
25. Brandin Cooks WR - NO
26. Doug Martin RB - TB
27. Julian Edelman WR - NE
28. LeSean McCoy RB - BUF
29. Eddie Lacy RB - GB
30. Matt Forte RB - NYJ
31. Jarvis Landry WR - MIA
32. T.Y. Hilton WR – IND
33. Randall Cobb WR - GB
34. Jordan Reed TE - WAS
35. Dion Lewis RB - NE
36. Jeremy Maclin WR - KC
37. Sammy Watkins WR - BUF
38. C.J. Anderson RB - DEN
39. Golden Tate WR - DET
40. Carlos Hyde RB - SF
41. Greg Olsen TE

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3rd Draft Pick coming up and my choices are


21. Brandon Marshall WR – NYJ                  22. Mark Ingram RB - NO
27. Julian Edelman WR – NE                         26. Doug Martin RB - TB
                                                                        28. LeSean McCoy RB - BUF
                                                                        30. Matt Forte RB - NYJ
34. Jordan Reed TE - WAS




My Pick and What is left?

Marshall was selected and I was left with J Edelman. I thought him to be a fair pick at that point in the draft.
           
27. Julian Edelman WR – NE
                       
            28. LeSean McCoy RB - BUF
            30. Matt Forte RB - NYJ
            34. Jordan Reed TE – WAS



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4th DRAFT PICK


4th pick coming up then.

One pick out at to get to Pick 43. I will have 54th pick and 67th Draft Picks as well.
So let’s recap and look to the end of the sixth round.

My Current Team:





So what players are in the mix?  We have currently gone through 27 WRs and 14 RBs.

I am thinking of this draft as being in the WR 3 round and RB 2 Round.

My positional data shows me this average pattern. (See my other blog posts)


 In the next picks from 44 to pick 72, these three QBs will be off the board.

                                    1. Cam Newton CAR
                                    2. Aaron Rodgers GB
                                    3. Andrew Luck IND

TE Gronk and Reed are gone. Olsen will be going by Sixth Round End.
                                    3. Greg Olsen CAR

Below is a list of WRs left?

It is predicted that those WRs in yellow will be gone by pick 72.

24. Eric Decker NYJ
26. Jordan Matthews PHI
27. Emmanuel Sanders DEN
28. Larry Fitzgerald ARI
29. DeVante Parker MIA
30. John Brown ARI
31. Michael Crabtree OAK
33. Michael Floyd ARI
34. Allen Hurns JAC
35. Marvin Jones DET
36. Kevin White CHI
37. Tyler Lockett SEA
38. DeSean Jackson WAS
39. Willie Snead NO

40. Markus Wheaton PIT
41. Corey Coleman CLE
42. Steve Smith BAL
43. Dorial Green-Beckham TEN
44. Stefon Diggs MIN
45. Vincent Jackson TB

Below is a list of RBs Left?

It is predicted that the RBs in yellow will be gone by Pick 72

14. Dion Lewis NE
15. C.J. Anderson DEN
17. DeMarco Murray TEN
18. Latavius Murray OAK
19. Thomas Rawls SEA
20. Jay Ajayi MIA
21. Ryan Mathews PHI
22. Danny Woodhead SD
23. Jonathan Stewart CAR
24. Giovani Bernard CIN
25. Duke Johnson CLE
26. Jeremy Hill CIN

27. Jeremy Langford CHI
28. Matt Jones WAS
29. T.J. Yeldon JAC
30. Frank Gore IND
31. Melvin Gordon SD
32. Ameer Abdullah DET
33. Charles Sims TB
34. Chris Ivory JAC
35. Theo Riddick DET
36. Justin Forsett BAL

There are 30 picks left so I expect those to be composed of:
            14 WRs
            12 RBs
            3   QBs
            1   TE

Questions
Do I want Olsen as TE?
Do I want a QB now?
How many RBs vs WRs do I take?



My Plan was to wait for late QBs and TEs. No bargains on those positions so I proceed with the game plan. I am leaning to E Decker WR or D Lewis RB. Let’s see who is waiting for me.

Picked E Decker so we roll into the 54th Pick.



  
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5th DRAFT PICK



26. Jordan Matthews PHI
27. Emmanuel Sanders DEN
30. John Brown ARI
32. Michael Crabtree OAK
33. Allen Hurns JAC
35. Marvin Jones DET
36. Kevin White CHI
37. Tyler Lockett SEA
38. DeSean Jackson WAS


17. DeMarco Murray TEN
18. Latavius Murray OAK
20. Jay Ajayi MIA
21. Ryan Mathews PHI
22. Danny Woodhead SD
23. Jonathan Stewart CAR
24. Giovani Bernard CIN
26. Jeremy Langford CHI
27. Jeremy Hill CIN
29. T.J. Yeldon JAC
30. Melvin Gordon SD


My plan was to take 2 RBs and 4 WR in the first 6. I felt that QB and TEs were fair priced so given the choice between D Murray and Jordan Matthews. We are at the 17th RB and 26th WR. The trends suggest more RB 2 types s will still be around.

Targeting these for my next pick! Taking J Matthews.

22. Danny Woodhead SD
23. Jonathan Stewart CAR
24. Giovani Bernard CIN
26. Jeremy Langford CHI
27. Jeremy Hill C




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6th Draft Pick


I took Hurns in the 7th pick as I thought RB2s would be still be available to me. I think he is a strong WR2 type.

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7th DRAFT PICK


Its pick 78 for me coming up currently.  I am expecting a TE run to begin into the next 3 rounds. So the debate for me is do I pick an early TE soon. Game plan is to have 3 TEs total.

I also wish to get an RB2 as well. A QB pickup was planned as well. In the next 3 picks my optimum is to collect RB, QB, and TE. I must however not miss any WR bargains.

39. Willie Snead NO
41. Steve Smith BAL
42. Markus Wheaton PIT
43. Stefon Diggs MIN
44. Dorial Green-Beckham TEN
45. Laquon Treadwell MIN
46. Vincent Jackson TB
47. Tavon Austin LA


30. Melvin Gordon SD
31. Frank Gore IND
32. Ameer Abdullah DET
34. Chris Ivory JAC
35. Theo Riddick DET
36. Justin Forsett BAL
37. Kenneth Dixon BAL
38. Karlos Williams BUF
39. Rashad Jennings NYG

4. Russell Wilson SEA
5. Drew Brees NO
6. Ben Roethlisberger PIT
7. Carson Palmer ARI
8. Tom Brady NE S

4. Travis Kelce KC
5. Delanie Walker TEN
6. Coby Fleener NO
7. Tyler Eifert CIN
8. Zach Ertz PHI
9. Julius Thomas JAC
10. Gary Barnidge CLE


Leaning to a RB but I am considering Wilson and Kelce at this spot as well. My debate is between these two. I am reaching early for a QB but he is becoming a bargain for me.

I had Kelce in my Que and Wilson second. One Pick out and Kelce was grabbed L.

I got R Wilson then as my QB.

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8th DRAFT PICK

I am up again at pick 91

Here is my team. This is my 8th pick. My Game Plan is to have 4 RB 6WR, 1 QB and 1 TE by Round 12. So I need 3RBs and 1TE to reach that goal.

41. Markus Wheaton PIT
42. Stefon Diggs MIN
43. Dorial Green-Beckham TEN
44. Steve Smith BAL
46. Laquon Treadwell MIN
47. Vincent Jackson TB
48. Tavon Austin LA
50. Josh Doctson WAS
51. Travis Benjamin SD


81/116
34. Chris Ivory JAC
36. Kenneth Dixon BAL
37. Justin Forsett BAL
38. Karlos Williams BUF
39. Rashad Jennings NYG
40. Bilal Powell NYJ
41. C.J. Prosise SEA
42. Isaiah Crowell CLE
43. Javorius Allen BAL
44. Tevin Coleman ATL CUFF

8. Zach Ertz PHI
9. Julius Thomas JAC
10. Ladarius Green PIT
11. Gary Barnidge CLE
12. Antonio Gates SD
13. Eric Ebron DET
14. Jason Witten DAL
15. Martellus Bennett NE
16. Jimmy Graham SEA INJ
17. Dwayne Allen IND
18. Zach Miller CHI
19. Jordan Cameron MIA
20. Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB
21. Charles Clay BUF
22. Ben Watson BAL
23. Clive Walford OAK
24. Jared Cook GB
25. Kyle Rudolph MIN
26. Will Tye NYG

7. Carson Palmer ARI
8. Blake Bortles JAC
9. Tom Brady NE S
10. Eli Manning NYG
11. Philip Rivers SD
12. Tony Romo DAL
13. Derek Carr OAK
14. Andy Dalton CIN
15. Marcus Mariota TEN

This pick I did not have any bargains. So I am looking TE vs RB. I decided on Chris Ivory as having a key role rushing for the JACs.  Next what to do?

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9Tth DRAFT PICK


The pressure for a TE continues but I thought K Dixon will be a later factor (See Previous Blog Posts on Trouble Backfields BAL) in this season’s RBs. I took him early but I was gambling on upside here.

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10th DRAFT PICK


 My Current Team is seen above. I am 2 picks out from my pick 115 in round 10.

The Pattern in this draft is shown below

 Predictions!

 1) Top 3 QBs gone by Round 6    (0.5 QBs per round)
 2) Top 8 QBs gone by Round 9   (0.88 QBs per round)
3) Top 14 QBs gone by Round 12 (1.167 QBs per Round Picked)

See predictions above!  100% on this money.
So we are in round 10 and 9 QBs gone. Therefore by round 12, 5 more QBs will fall. So I have picks 10 11 and 12. Do I wish to pair Russell Wilson with any of the next 4 or 5 QBs? My targeted number 2 QB is Kirk Cousins. He pairs well with RW in SOS Matchups.

So my approach keeps us in the decision zone instead of reacting!

Previously, I predicted   “ I predict a run on TEs beginning in the 7th round and by the end of the 9th round the first 10 TEs will be gone.”    The answer is the first 10 TEs are gone by round 9. “Fish in a barrel” I had delayed and chosen a late TE approach before the draft else I would have grabbed Reed or Olsen! Given the run to come, I will pick my first TE!

Who are the choices?  Everyone is avoiding ZE so he is being forced to me. One Pick left. If ZE is picked I will wait till next pick then. So ZE or I grab another RB/WR.

Mr. Zack welcome to the team!

8. Zach Ertz PHI
13. Eric Ebron DET
14. Jason Witten DAL
16. Jimmy Graham SEA INJ
17. Dwayne Allen IND
18. Zach Miller CHI
19. Jordan Cameron MIA
20. Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB
21. Charles Clay BUF
22. Ben Watson BAL
23. Clive Walford OAK
24. Jared Cook GB
25. Kyle Rudolph MIN
26. Will Tye NYG
27. Richard Rodgers GB
28. Vance McDonald SF
29. Jace Amaro NYJ
30. Maxx Williams BAL
31. Cameron Brate TB
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11th DRAFT PICK


I reached for my CUFF Coleman for bad or good.



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12th DRAFT PICK

I selected A Foster as a reach because Best Leagues would favor this burn bright and fade RB type!

12. Tony Romo DAL
13. Derek Carr OAK
14. Andy Dalton CIN
15. Tyrod Taylor BUF
16. Marcus Mariota TEN
17. Jameis Winston TB
19. Matthew Stafford DET
20. Ryan Tannehill MIA
21. Matt Ryan ATL

40. Bilal Powell NYJ
46. Darren McFadden DAL INJ
49. Jerick McKinnon MIN
51. Darren Sproles PHI
52. Kenyan Drake MIA
53. Chris Thompson WAS
54. Jordan Howard CHI
55. Paul Perkins NYG
56. Devontae Booker DEN
57. Arian Foster

54. Kendall Wright TEN
56. Devin Funchess CAR
58. Pierre Garcon WAS
59. Nelson Agholor PHI
60. Breshad Perriman BAL INJ
63. Rishard Matthews TEN
64. Rueben Randle PHI
65. Terrance Williams DAL
66. Tyler Boyd CIN
20. Jordan Cameron MIA
21. Charles Clay BUF
22. Ben Watson BAL
23. Jared Cook GB
24. Kyle Rudolph MIN
25. Vance McDonald SF
26. Clive Walford OAK
27. Austin Hooper ATL
28. Richard Rodgers GB
29. Will Tye NYG
30. Larry Donnell NYG
31. Jace Amaro NYJ

At this point, I need a QB and will target Matthew Stafford DET
My TE targets remain below and we need 2. Also I am planning on adding 2 WR and 2 RB and 2 DEF

23. Clive Walford OAK
44. Brent Celek PHI
24. Kyle Rudolph MIN
45. Jack Doyle IND
25. Jared Cook GB
46. Blake Bell SF
26. Will Tye NYG
47. Tyler Higbee LA
27. Richard Rodgers GB
48. Niles Paul WAS
28. Vance McDonald SF
49. Garrett Celek SF
29. Maxx Williams BAL
50. Ryan Griffin HOU
30. Owen Daniels
51. Thomas Duarte MIA
31. Cameron Brate TB
52. Garrett Graham DEN
32. Hunter Henry SD
53. Dion Sims MIA
33. Austin Hooper ATL
54. Luke Willson SEA
34. Josh Hill NO
55. Jermaine Gresham ARI
35. Jeff Heuerman DEN
56. Darren Fells ARI
36. Larry Donnell NYG
57. Mycole Pruitt MIN
37. Jace Amaro NYJ
58. Jesse James PIT
38. Virgil Green DEN
59. Tyler Kroft CIN
39. Jacob Tamme ATL
60. Gavin Escobar DAL INJ
40. Crockett Gillmore BAL
61. Nick Vannett SEA
41. Lance Kendricks LA
62. Jerell Adams NYG
42. Vernon Davis
63. Marcedes Lewis JAC
43. Mychal Rivera OAK
64. Brandon Pettigrew DET

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13th DRAFT PICK

P13 to 20_ 8 spots. I have 8 spots for 1 QB, 2TE 1RB and 2WR, .2 DEF




In next picks

P13 to 20 will give me 8 spots. I have 8 spots for 1 QB  2TE 1RB and 2WR, .2 DEF

I think I will need to reach soon to grab a DEF or wait and get 3 cheap ones!

I looked at this point  and only found K Wright WR as any kind of fair pick!

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14th DRAFT PICK


At Pick 163 Round 14. I wish to pick 1 QB, 2 TE, 1 RB, 1 WR AND 2 DEF

Using a matchup between QB R Wilson and Marcus Mariota, the week 5 bye is matched ok with MM vs MIA giving 17 pts per game away. MM bye is week 13 and RW is against CAR and they give 14 pts away. Hum could be better!
 I want Matt Strafford but he was taken. I also considered looking at Ryan Tannehill Week 5, the match up is very good with MIA playing TEN who gives up 19 pts. On RT’s bye week in week 8, RW is playing NO and they are a sweet match giving away 24 pts.
So I grabbed Ryan Tannehill here.
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15th DRAFT PICK



 Round 15. I wish to pick, 2 TE, 1 RB, 1 WR AND 2 DEF

Given my predictions before-hand, I predict the DEFs should start soon rolling into as big run. Hopefully, I will be grabbing TEs during those times.

My Team is as shown below!


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16th DRAFT PICK



I scanned the RBs, WRs and TEs. Given the landscape and the time back to my turn,  it seem like if I did not pick up Jordan Howard CHI, he would not make it back to me. I definitely liked these WR as well. I hope one may slide back.

64. Rueben Randle PHI 24%
65. Terrance Williams DAL 31%
66. Tyler Boyd CIN

The next pick was very straightforward as I needed my second TE at this point. I picked up Clive Walford who showed some life last year. He averaged 3 catches per game in the last 5 of the 2015 season. He had 15 catches in those last 5 games. The preceding 10 weeks he had 14 catches. So it was 3 in the last 5 games  vs 1.4 catches. I had targeted him as a TE3 but my plans morphed into collecting him as my TE2 instead.

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17th  to the 20th DRAFT PICK



So the debate for me in my last 4 picks is besides that 3 DEFs, Do I wish 3 TEs or another WR?. I will grab the Bill Def in the 17th pick


Next 2 (18 and 19)  picks were Defenses, the Miami Dolphins DST – MIA and Chicago Bears DST – CHI.

The last pick (20 th) was a gamble on the second TE at BAL. His numbers were ok last year. Crockett Gillmore TE - BAL

We are done. Part 1 as it happened done.

Part 2 Will have me grading this draft and looking at an overview of the picks and teams.
Do miss it.

Thanks for reading.

 

FYI my Updated TEXTBOOK will be up by July 5 with current rankings (PPR, STD, and Half PPR) as well as ADPs etc. Good Stuff.





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