Tuesday, August 2, 2016

NFC North__Analysis__Story Telling

Please check out another article I have written in 

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Fake Pig Skin's Own Dynasty Statesman 


Dave Cherney @roadwarrior_D

IT Consultant; Fantasy Football Original 


Contributor / Marketing Specialist for 

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"Psychologists have referred to stories as "psychologically privileged," meaning that our minds treat stories differently than other types of material. People find stories interesting, easy to understand, and easy to remember. "


So I am going tell tell you stories about conferences and divisions in the next 8 articles. 

I do this to help you think about the data landscapes and remember information to use going into your drafts.  

The professor now assigns you homework. Take your data and opinions and make your own stories. 

The prologue to my stories is shown in the first two figures

Figure 1 is a landscape view and the overall stories are there to see. Its an overview and goes from teams that had fewer failed drives to those that had more failures. Figure 2 below it is the tabular data color coded for the data. I scaled the data (# of TDs, FGs and Failures) divided by the number of drives to equilibrate all of the teams. Review these figures and then proceed. 

2015 was a typical year composed of teams who excelled (green) and teams who struggled with many failures (red). 

Teams were able to score TDs, some did not score many at all. 

Several Team settled for FGs vs TDs instead. Some did neither. 

Its 2016 preseason and hope springs eternal.  

Teams (NE, CAR, ARI, SEA, PIT, CIN, MIN, NYG, and KC) in green wish to stay there 


red stained teams (CLE, IND, PHI, HOU, SF, MIA, TEN, and LAR) do not. 

As FF players you must see the past as only a setting for the 2016 story that will be unfolding. 


                                  Story 4.  NFC North

Lets start our tale with a series of area graphs which illustrate each of the 4 team's 2015. I call these area graphs a team landscape. T

The categories are : 

A) Ratio of TD/FG. Success Metric. This could point to a kicker. This metric measures the fortitude of the team. Could they get the ball into the endzone for a TD or did they settle for a FG

B/C) Rushing TDs vs Passing TDs. These 2 match pair metrics measure the bias of the 2015 team's scoring success. Does this team going by ground/pound or by air? RBs vs WRs. 

D/E/F) WR_RB or TEs passing TDs. In the Red Zone, what was the mode of TD strikes? RBs WRs or TEs? This should tip yous hand for your first level of focus in 2016 draft.

G/H) Metrics that measure Pass vs Rushing Attempts and Pass vs Rushing Yards Gained. What mode brings home the bacon? (Pass vs Run?) Should allow a focus to or from WRs RBs and or TEs. 

I) A simple ratio metric of Pass vs Rushing Scoring! This confirms the emphasis the team had in 2015. Run first Pass First or Balanced? 


The Story of CHI from 2015.

This team left points on the field and had a -7 TD to FG ratio. They scored by rushing achieving a +8 while the passing was a -8 in passing. Their WRs were not on the ball. When this team did pass in the red zone their RBs scored with a +11 above average. While the WRs and TEs fell flate with -23 average. Not good. Their ATTs and YDs via passing was at -9 below league average. Losing Forte is going to pass alot on the remaing RBs. Can their WRs step up? 

The 2016 public rates them below average at -4 and are rated 3rd out of 4 in this division. Positional analysis show the public expects the WRs to bounce back with a good 72 score. They correctly see the RBs are below average at 41. The public predicts low performance from the QB and TEs. 

This 2016 team is very biased to the WR position! RBs are not strongly supported  as are the QB and TE. A one trick pony team who did not excel in the 2015 with their WRs. The public expects a change. 
Player analysis highlights Jeffery at 90 and white at 54. A fairly good pair. The public supports the WRs excelling this year. The public really likes Langford as a RB with a score of 73. The team is in trouble if the RB1 goes down. Little support for Howard! The QB and TEs are not supported as well. I forgot to move Bennett to the NE team. (My Bad)!


The 2015 DET Team Story.

The swansong of MegaTron was last year. The team was good in its TD to FG ratio with a +8. Nice! They scored by passing with a +13 and were not rushing for their scores at seen with a -12 rating. In the Redzone they have a spread out play using WR, RB and TEs at average levels. A balanced passing show. Nice stats of ATTs and YDs in passing. A nice +11 ratio of pass to run scoring overall. So questions are can the WRs keep it rolling and will this team move up in rushing? 

In the 2016 rankings, the public sees the DET as very competitive in this division as they are rated 1 point below the GB Team! Above average as well with a +3 overall score.  Positional analysis shows the public rates the RBs above average at 55 and the WR at 65. The QB and TE are not strongly rated. 

DET is heavy into its WRs and Pass Catching RBs and above 70% of the show is expected from these positions. Not surprising. 
Player analysis of the the DET reveals that both RBs are above average at 55 or so. The WR are also rated average or above. Tate is at 80. Not at the 90% level as Calvin would have been but still nicely rated. The QB and TE are not strongly supported. I expect a continued 2015 story! 


 The GB Team's 2015 Tale of Woe.

Injuries hurt this team in 2015. They lost Nelson and they never recovered. They still managed to have TD to FG ratio of +5. An above average level. This should be the floor for this team moving into the 2016 season.  GB was weak in rushing scoring at -9 but made their money with remaining WRs getting a +9 fpor the season. High Score! Interestingly, in the Red Zone with no Nelson they do not use the WRs well with a -7 but were good with the RBs and TE (+3 and +1). They were flexible and worked to overcome the loss of Nelson. The ATTs and YDs passing point out the lack of skill present (-3 and -8). They still used the passing game well and had an above average of +4.5. 

In 2016, the public ranks them 1st in the division but not significantly. They public seems to be not sold of this team. Confusing data. Positional analysis reveals the public supports Rodgers at 78, the RBs at 50 and WRs as a group at 62. The TE is weakly rated. Maybe a surprise there.All 3 positions as above average or at average. The pieces are here for this team to roll!

The GB is fairly balanced with the QB at 40%, WR at 30% and 25% for the RB. Not a clear bias and supports a more balanced team this year. If they can work with the balance they should win this division! 

Finally, player analysis confirms the love for Rodgers, Lacy and the tandem of Nelson and Cobb (all above 80%)! On paper this team rocks. If Cooks can be a sleeper then the team can go to the playoffs! 


MIN Team's 2015 Story. 

This team left points on the field and were not efficient! They used AP to produce a nice rushing score of 26. One of the highest in the league. They have a hall of fame RB but he is getting to be long in the tooth! MIN did use its passing game well at all with a -26. Sad. When they did pass and score in the Red Zone it was to their TEs (+20) or RBs at (+1). Their WRs was an anchor to the team with a score of -19. Their poor passing levels was seen in their ATTs and YDs stats (-19). They must have WRs improvement! 

In the 2016 season, the public sees MIN as the last team in the division. The public seems to not expect improvement. Positional analysis shows that AP is the show and the WR are rated at 39 below average! No big changes are predicted by the public. The QB and TEs are not ranked. 

The lack of QB and TE rating give the picture of the AP show. 
Player analysis shows a clear one trick point team of AP. MIN needs more. The two receivers are rated at 40ish. Not a strong supported group. No surprises expected here by the public. 

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