Wednesday, August 3, 2016

NFC South the Final Story

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"Psychologists have referred to stories as "psychologically privileged," meaning that our minds treat stories differently than other types of material. People find stories interesting, easy to understand, and easy to remember. "

So I am going tell tell you stories about conferences and divisions in the next 8 articles. 

I do this to help you think about the data landscapes and remember information to use going into your drafts.  

The professor now assigns you homework. Take your data and opinions and make your own stories. 

The prologue to my stories is shown in the first two figures

Figure 1 is a landscape view and the overall stories are there to see. Its an overview and goes from teams that had fewer failed drives to those that had more failures. Figure 2 below it is the tabular data color coded for the data. I scaled the data (# of TDs, FGs and Failures) divided by the number of drives to equilibrate all of the teams. Review these figures and then proceed. 

2015 was a typical year composed of teams who excelled (green) and teams who struggled with many failures (red). 

Teams were able to score TDs, some did not score many at all. 

Several Team settled for FGs vs TDs instead. Some did neither. 

Its 2016 preseason and hope springs eternal.  

Teams (NE, CAR, ARI, SEA, PIT, CIN, MIN, NYG, and KC) in green wish to stay there 


red stained teams (CLE, IND, PHI, HOU, SF, MIA, TEN, and LAR) do not. 

As FF players you must see the past as only a setting for the 2016 story that will be unfolding. 


                                  Story 4.  NFC South

Lets start our tale with a series of area graphs which illustrate each of the 4 team's 2015. I call these area graphs a team landscape. T

The categories are : 

A) Ratio of TD/FG. Success Metric. This could point to a kicker. This metric measures the fortitude of the team. Could they get the ball into the endzone for a TD or did they settle for a FG

B/C) Rushing TDs vs Passing TDs. These 2 match pair metrics measure the bias of the 2015 team's scoring success. Does this team going by ground/pound or by air? RBs vs WRs. 

D/E/F) WR_RB or TEs passing TDs. In the Red Zone, what was the mode of TD strikes? RBs WRs or TEs? This should tip yous hand for your first level of focus in 2016 draft.

G/H) Metrics that measure Pass vs Rushing Attempts and Pass vs Rushing Yards Gained. What mode brings home the bacon? (Pass vs Run?) Should allow a focus to or from WRs RBs and or TEs. 

I) A simple ratio metric of Pass vs Rushing Scoring! This confirms the emphasis the team had in 2015. Run first Pass First or Balanced? 


The ATL 2015 Story. 

They were just average in TD to FGs ratios. Used their RBs to score score (+8). The passing scoring was not strong with a -8. Julio was it. In the RedZone the Team used the WRs and RBs quite well (5 and 11). Nice RB score. The TE was weak with a -3. ATL misses Tony G! Passing stats were nice with ATTs at 4 and YDs at 7. So they moved the ball but did not get it in by passing as they needed. Note the Pass to Run Scoring was a -6.

In the 2016 the public, ATL is rated at 5 above average and is picked first over CAR. The public is expecting changes in the Team. Positional Analysis Shows the RB and WRs are nicely ranked while the QB is weakly ranked and TE was not ranked!.

Balanced analysis sees that ATL expects 80% of its action to be from the WR and RBs. Nice balance between the groups! 

Freeman and Julio are the show here. Ranked as a great tandem oat 90 to 99! Nice group to have, The backups are not ranked high but are ok. The QB could be the weak link. This team needs a TE to move into the playoffs! 


The 2015 CAR Team Story.

The CAR story was similar to the GB story in the sense of the loss of a Key WR as causing a lesser outcome than they wanted. They was very good at TDs to FGs ratio with a 8. Nice. They did their damage by rushing with a +5 while the WR scored a -5. They missed KB! When they passed to score in the red zone it was to Olsen the TE with a 4. However, the WR and RB were at average! The passing stats of ATTs and TDs had a -17 average which was poor. If this will change they could easily win the division. I expect change! 

The 2016 public sees CAR however as last in the division with a 45.3 score. I think the 2015 story clouds the public's viewpoint! Positional analysis gives nice marks to the QB (79) and TE at (73) and the WR (50.3) are also above the average level as well. They can improve. 

The CAR balance is weighted to the QB and TE. That is the floor grouping but the RBs and WRs are expected to be 36% of the Teams production. Any improvement moves them up. 

Player analysis gives Cam a 79, JS the RB a 62, the TE at 73 and the WRs KB at a wonderful 82. Again 4 pieces this team has that are above average and nicely ranked. Looks good on paper! 


The 2015 NO story.

This team was super efficient with a 25 TD to FG ratio. Strong! They were balanced with a +3 -3 rankings of rushing vs passing scoring. When they passed to score in the red zone, the TEs really picked it up with a +15. Strong passing team with 11 and 19 scores in ATTs and YDs stats. They need to get the WRs scoring more in the red zone though! 
The Public ranked the NO team at 46.2 and that is right in the mix. Kind of a closely ranked group here in this division! The positional analysis showed the balance with the QB and TE above average but the WRs still at a 48. The TEs are expected to regress as NO lost Ben Watson. So the WRs and RBs need to step up in case the TEs do not! 

The NO Team seems to be balanced. The TEs are predicted to be 28% of the production. If Fleener does work out, then NO will be competitive. The public I think has misprinted the WRs and I would expect an increased level of scoring from them. Logically the TE goes down and the WRs go up. 

The player analysis shows the RB is Ingram with a score of 86. That is a string score. I expect this level of scoring and have invested in him. The WR Cooks is also highly regarded with a 87. Nice potential. I note that the backups are weak in the RB position and the WR backups are ok. Snead is at 41. He should be he WR handcuff if you grabbed Cooks early. The QB is at 62 which is good. The TE is at 58 and that is a risky ranking. Be cautious.


The 2015 Story of TB.

This Team was below average in TD to FG efficiency! They were biased to the rushing scoring with a +5 while the passing score level was a -5. The red zone passing scoring was all to the RBs. Weak levels of success were seen in the WR with a -21 (LOW) and the TE position at -11. So a RB biased team. Sims seem to be a nice player to draft as he plays to the Team's strength. TB was weak in over passing stats with -9 and -12 in ATTs and YDs vs the league! Scoring was to the rushing side! Not sure they improve much this year! 

The 2016 Public says that they are ranked 2nd in this division. I think that is an aggressive opinion. Positional analysis shows the RB and WRs are the show with the ranking of 67 and 58. Above average and nice balance. TB needs the TEs to move up if they were to have a chance to win this division. The WRs were 2015 underachievers and must move up along with the QB. I have doubts. 

TB is balanced between the WR and RBs. The WRs are rated higher then they performed in 2015. 

Player analysis highlights the D Martin at 83 (High) and C Simms the backup at 51 (Low). A nice group though! The WR Evans is the show with a nice rating of 89. That is a solid number but needs to come through. VJ also needs to double his ranking from 27 up to 50s for TB to move up this year. I the weak QB and TE. I am not expecting much more than they gave last year. 

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