Saturday, August 27, 2016

Super Risk Report. Lots of Data. Use thoughtfully!

Starting the first " research as you" go Blog Post! 

First Graph is a Risk Stat that Uses Average of  3 Player's Positional Risk Numbers. 

Player -1 WR -15
Player 1 RB - 10
Player 2 WR -5

3 players 3 risk numbers. The average is (15+10+5)/3  30/3 = 10. I assign that to the middle player. He is in the middle of a risk 10 region. I continue this calculation forward. 

Below is the Scatter-gram of that "neighbor risk data"  Risk goes up and plateaus then drops into the 20 draft round. It also gets wide in the data. Our Statistical confidence limits are very broad. More uncertainty stats to widen out at round 7/8. So the game changes and the ice gets very thin on average at that point! 
This next figure is where I placed our expectations using a "pink" line. I have not data to plot this. Its a guess. Note the intersects of Our expected opinions or player value/risk and the actual neighborhood risk data cross at round 9 or 10.

Does hitting the "singularity" make us too thoughtless. 

We do not expect so much so I will not do any deep thinking. 

Orange line shows the average player effort level in their drafts?  One of the reasons I do as many slow drafts. I wish to devote more time to picks as I go into the draft.  

I suggest that you save you draft data and score your picks from round 8 and up. Is this a problem for you? I think your game can be improved if you were to up your skills at the later rounds. 

How can we fight this "drafting fatigue"  ? Save your past drafts and see where you have it at. I on occasion have timed by picks just to see where my time budget is at? Do you have a correlation? 


I took the player's positional based risk numbers and calculated the draft rounds average of that number. I subtracted the average for the original number. That should map the distribution of  riskier players and less risky players within the draft rounds. This can p begin to correct for the tendency for risk in general to go up into the draft. 

Look at the landscape view. It implies that as we get into the draft we believe our drafted players are safer that players in the previous  rounds starting at round . They seem safer because the other players in that draft round seem higher in risk. 

Are we overplaying our hands. How can players in rounds 3 forward be "safer" than round 1 players? This tells me cognitive biases are at work here. 

313pm CST

Questions. If the player is so safe vs other, why is he being drafted later.  I hear the concept "he has a role" We have expectations vs risk level.  Should we rate players at both levels? I try! Do we ignore risk late and "Shoot for the Moon" on players. 

Positional Risk Analysis

I have calculated the risk number within the positions and have those charts coming. The X axis is the player or team and the Y axis is the risk level for that data point. From left to right is the current ranking. 

These data are meant to inspire deeper thinking. Remember the time invest the average plan does not make on their drafting. Be different. 

You can group the first 4 together in a risk grouping. The next four DST look alike. The NE DST seems to be a "sure" thing at 9th while the PHI DST is beyond risky. I have not drafted them in my 35 leagues! I would overlay this risk data with SOS data to tease it out. 

The next figure is the QB risk levels figures. Left to Right current rankings. Green circle denoted "risk tiers" The top group seems to be close in risk levels. I wait on QBs late so this data supports that drafting plan. I have been focusing on Tyrod Taylor as he is a late QB with an acceptable risk vs the top QB group. 

Next is the RB landscape of Risk. This graph shows the deeper level my risk can take us into the data! 
Look at the 2 worlds of RB5 and 6s. Upside Lower Risk and Higher Risk. 

If you can know and expect that we have apples and oranges you can make orange juice or applesauce. Draft Risky RBs or "Safer RBs".

Next will be the RBs names and their risk scores by rank. So I will reveal the late round oranges and apple RBs. Come back. 

7:52pm Back! 

This graph is the top 24th RBs and risk. Doug Martin Stands out here. His Risk is as high as the next group. So does that say C J Anderson should flip the spot with Martin? The first group has a low risk average of 10 while the next group has an average of 30isk. 3X the risk. As you leave the "safety" of the top 12, you enter into the first "risk plateau". If your tolerance for risk is not high then maybe you should draft in the top 12 RBs! 

These figures are fun and can be used to break the late round ties. Good Luck on the RB

Good Morning! Lets finsh this!

How do I use these data?

1) I predict that further into the draft the risk levels become more important

2) I use not as a stand alone but to supplement my thinking. 

That's why I do the slow drafting. Live drafting requires a homework sheet. List of players -targets and color code or use a R to denote higher risk. R/R is what I use for High Risk High Reward Players. 

3) Remember all rankings/info/tweets etc are there to help you not decide for you. 

xx 10 AM Sunday

This new graph is the Risk Landscape for the TE position by high to lower ranking vs Risk. I got this data on Saturday morning. I was sad to hear about Mr. Ben Watson. I had him as a late round TE2 possibility but he had a 73 risk level so a definite risk! 

Analysis of the landscape shows you should expect high risk after the first few TE are drafted. Get ready for that. In TE premium leagues I am drafting at least 3 TEs! ie FFPC leagues! 

I have highlight some features of this TE Risk landscape by red ovals. You can "see" the risk clouds "your player" is under. I think Witten and Allen are justified as higher risk in the second cloud area!

WR Currently Ranked by Risk   

Scatter_Gram and Radar Chart (Cool)


I have now jumped the data shark by using the Radar Chart feature on excel! 

The Next Four Figures Cover the Top WRs downward by Rank in groups of 24 till the end. We see a movement of risk upwards at the 24th WR or so!  The Radar Chart showed it better, I think.  By the 60th or WR its risky city! 


I would advise you to not look at this data till you have developed a later WR target list and then look. If your targets have a high risk, I suggest you dig deeper and be thoughtful. See my posts of injury matrices or multiple hypothesizes approaches.  

(Wow Dr. Bush that seems like a lot of "extra" work.- Cut the wood and then get the fire not the other way).

Good Luck!  

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