Fantasy Football Analysis 2017
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2016 ADP (180th ADP or Less) Sept 2016 vs End of Season Fantasy Points Scored
I analyzed the relationship of the QB, RB, TE, and WR players
ranked by their pre-season ADP (PS-ADP to about the 180th player
number – total position except DEF and K) and their end-of-season long PPR
points scored (ES PPR) to determine how strong the finish was for each position
PS-ADP vs. the ES-PPR. The first figure of this data of the PS-ADP vs. ES-PPR from the years 2016 is
presented in Figure 36.
The first quest was to determine what was the differences in the
players on an ADP draft list 180th or less or players greater than a
180th ADP level. (ADP 2016 and
earlier historical data is available free at several websites, I randomly picked
one and used it through the chapter)
In Figure 36 in the top table, each position is listed,
grouped into players at the EOS, and the average of their PF calculated. The
EOS PF data was normalized on a scale of 0 to 100.
The QB position showed that
QBs on the PS ADP list in 2016 averaged a EOS PF of 54.2 while those not
drafted in Sept had an average of 34.3. The overall EOS PF was 47.1. The scaled
column took the PF scoring average and subtracted the grand average of 47.1,
Those QBs drafted in the PS were on average 7.1 above positional average and
those QB not drafted in PS were -12.8 below the EOS positional average.
go through the other positions as well.
Looking into the scaled numbers of each position, certain
conclusions can be drawn from the 2016 data and figure 36 top and bottom.
1)As an average, the RB players not drafted as
shown by the ADP PS list did not do very well in the EOS PF. The RB ADP Yes vs. NO calculation shown in the
bottom of the figure and was 2.4. That means that RBs which were in the top 180 or less of all position ADP 2016 did 2.4 times better vs. the RBs not within the 180 ADP
2016 List. Few surprise bargains. When
in doubt do not draft an unranked (>180 ish ADP) RB player.
2)In 2016, the QB, TE and WR positions were very
similar in +-180 ADP range. TE Yes vs No were at 1.9 as much, WR were 1.7 as much
and QB was 1.6 times as much. So more bargains to be had at >180 ADP QBs than all
3) High ADP WRs were also a source of bargains. The TEs were
better than RBs but not as good as WR/QB. This suggest on average looking for a
deep sleeper will be ordered from Best to Worst. QB>WR>>TE>>RBs.
You have better chances at finding surprises in QB and WR! Remember on Draft day in the Summer!
Working my Chapter X1 Data in my Textbook on Drafting. Shooting for the 2017 First Edition in May on Amazon. Drafting Textbook Data Figures.
In these tables, I looked at the Running Backs and their 2016 Passing Targets and Rushing Attempts.
I calculated a Scaled Scoring System for 0 to 100 and assigned the players their numbers of Rushing vs Passing.
I also calculated a Rushing to Passing Ratio Stat and assigned each player an R/P number
Finally, all of the 2016 active Running Backs were sorted by their R/P number and their biases determined.
Passing Biased - RBs that had a Passing Score higher than their Rushing Score.
Rushing Biased - RBs that had a Rushing Score Higher than their Passing Score
Balanced - RBs whose 2 Scores were close to each other.
I have updated the MFL10 ADPs from data after the draft as well. I urge you to question all data points to understand the why. This is the wisdom of the crowds as it is based on MFL10 ADPs but it is a starting point for your investigations.
These next figures present each position, the FPR (Fantasy Professors ADP Ranking) and my risk number Early Risk. Red color not good while green is good!
Example question. In the QBs the 3rd QB Brady has a high risk number relative to his draft neighbors. Why? What is the public as a group telling us?
Next up is 2 figures that I use to see the entire draft. I use landscape level visual aids to make moves etc before the crowd. Questions such as when do I need to draft a TE or QB if I do not wish to have a player positional ranked at 13th or worse. So in TEs you can wait to at least round 8 to 9. QB2s start at round 10 as well! So in you draft plan going into a MFL10, plan for TEs and QBs in rounds 7 to 9 etc.