I guess I am excited as I go through the data and wanted to share some fun facts for your 2017 Drafting.
Figure 42 in my Chapter 6 focuses attention on a comparison between the 2016 RB and WR positions in terms of scaled to average. We can now define success as above the average, positive numbers. Negative numbers will note failures. This figure contains the numbers of successes above the average over the 48th RBs and WRs. The dashed black line denoted the success failure breakpoint. The rounds are divided by the pink dotted lines. The actual positions and their successes are displayed within each round.
The two patterns numerically are; RBs 8, 8, 3 and 7 successes and WRs are 8, 9, 6 and 3 successes.
The y-axis is the scaled End of Season Performance (Dec 2016) vs the preseason ADP level (Sept 2016)
I conclude that in 2016;
- The WRs were best early and riskier later.
- The RBs were good early but come back in the 4th round.
- Third round RBs (3 successes) could be those that a weak lead RBs or in time-share while the 4 round may have the next up lead RBs getting a chance with injuries or poor lead RBs performance. Focus your RB draft plans accordingly.