Tuesday, March 28, 2017

Current PPR ADP and Risk Analysis. Team, Position and Player Landscapes

I am deep into research for my textbook on drafting. I needed a break so I whipped this out this afternoon.

I use my early season visuals not to be anchored into thoughts. I use these data aids to inspire questions, comparisons and more research. 

As you go into this post, write down questions and think about the answers. 

I first present a drafting landscape of positions, positional runs, and patterns. 

Why these patterns? What is the public thinking. 

We in some sense are all fighting against the wisdom of the crowd. The ADP is the public and it must be respected. We need to be ahead and know when to go against the popular ideas. 

The order of the positions is RBs, TEs, WRs and QBs. The first 4 picks are 3 RBs and 1 WR. and then we see a run of 6 WRs. 

The first QB drafted at pick 20 and first TE at the 24 pick. 

By end of round 4 the first 24 WRs are gone while only 16 RBs are gone. WRs are still leading the charge. 

These next tables highlight the position, the players rank, risk and scaled rank and risk. Color coded for ease of viewing. 

Why are some players more riskier than others? Is Rodgers really the best QB? These ranks follow nicely into tiers , if needed. 

The Team view allows a gaze at the team's make up. Players that seem to dominate the position or a committee of players? What is the risk vs reward for the team's players? 

This is a nice view of the team, players and rounds currently being drafted. These are my favorites as it invites questions very simply.

 IE In BAL is Woodhead really a 12 rounder vs Dixon at round 8? Seems a little large distance for Woodhead away from Dixon.  

I will not spoil your fun. Enjoy this data! 

Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Early MFL10s 2017 ADPs with rankings and risk analysis.

These data tables will give a look at the current MFL10 ADP and Risk .   

I wrote about using my MFL 10 data in a post last year.      

See this link MFL Data Past Post Read Me

The Next 6 Charts show QB, RB, TE and WR Data from the current MFL10 ADPs see 

Pos Num = ADP of the Player within their position
ADP Num = ADP within all 150 Players looked at
Player, Team, and Position. 
Scaled Public Ranking from 100 to 0 (Best - Green and Worst -Red)
Very Early Risk Number (My Risk Analysis from 0 no Risk to 100 Highest Risk). I try to incorporate, elements for the player and team. I will fold in SOS and injury history data later

A landscape view of the current MFL10 ADPs by position

  • Red circle marks the end of the 12th TE or QB
  • Red Arrows mark the RBs rounds of 12
  • Yellow Arrows mark the WR rounds of 12
  • The first 12 TEs are off the board on average in round 10 
  • The first 12 QBs are drafted on average by round 10 as well.
  • The first 12 RBs at round 3, next 12 at round 6 and next 12 RBs by round 9.
  • The first 12 WRs are gone by end of round 2, next 12 by round 4 and next 12 WR by early round seven.
  • 36 RBs are gone by round 9 where 48 WRs are gone. WRs are drafted faster than RBs

The next 3 MFL 10 positional landscapes are of round 2, 4 and the 6

Begin Risk Landscapes by Team and Position
(Low Number - Low Risk- Green)
(High Number - Higher Risk- Red)

Begin Ranking Landscapes by Team, Position and Draft Rounds
(Low Number - Low Ranking- Red)
(High Number - Higher Ranking- Green)

Begin Risk Landscapes by Team, Position and Draft Rounds
(High Number - High Ranking- Red)
(Low Number - Low Risk- Green)

Begin Positional ADP Rankings Landscapes by Team, Position and Draft Rounds

This allow you see by round by rank of the position is drafted in round 1. 

Dave Johnson RB is drafted on average 1st and in round 1

Gronk is going as the TE1 in Round 2 from NEP whereas 13 WRs have been drafted and 10 RBs are gone. 

I documents my MFL10 playing in the linked article. I plan my draft expecting positional peaks and valleys. Draft before the peak etc. Good Luck

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