2017 Winning Dynasty and Redraft Fantasy Football Drafts by John Bush with Dave Cherney (Associate Editor)



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Thanks to my Great Friend and Dynasty Mentor, 

Dave Cherney** 

for doing a great chapter (Ch 20) on dynasty drafting and philosophy 

** DAVE CHERNEY


Dave Cherney is a hardworking IT professional as well as fanatic on dynasty fantasy football.


1000 +Pages of Original Research and Fantasy Football Goodness

Introduction
Overall Textbook Concept Map
Goals
Time on Task
Importance of Drafting
Figure 1-1. Raw Data Distribution of 43 2015/6 MFL Leagues. Free Agents vs. Drafted Players
Figure 1-2. Color Coded Spread Sheet of the Data in Graphed in Figure 1
Figure 1-3. Percentage of Players that were Drafted vs. Picked Up as Waiver Wire Free Agents
Chapter 2. Solving Psychological Temperament and Human Biases Puzzle
Temperament and Delayed Gratification
Figure 2-1. Personality Trait Scale for Investors.
Challenges and Biases
Some Common Biases and Their Solutions
Chapter 3. Understanding Stats in Fantasy Football: Limitations and Uses
Statistical Understanding
Variations and Volatility
Chapter 4. Positional Stats, Variations, and Volatility.
Figure 4-1. Average Fantasy Point Production for the 1st to 12th Players by Position
Quarterbacks
Figure 4-2. QB Position. Raw FP Data from 2000 to 2016 by position. Annotated to see the complete 17-year changes vs. changes within each ranked position.
Tight Ends
Figure 4-3. TE Position. Raw FP Data from 2000 to 2016 by position. Annotated to see the complete 17-year changes vs. changes within each ranked position.
Wide-Receivers
Figure 4-4 WR Position. Raw FP Data from 2000 to 2016 by position. Annotated to see the complete 17-year changes vs. changes within each ranked position.
Running Backs
Figure 4-5 RB Position. Raw FP Data from 2000 to 2016 by position. Annotated to see the complete 17-year changes vs. changes within each ranked position.
Top Ranked EOS Players from 2000 to 2016
Figure 4-6 1st Ranked EOS FP of Each Position By Year 2000 to 2016
Figure 4-7 Total Combined Positional EOS FP by Years 2000 to 2016
Figure 4-8. QB Scaled to the 17th FP EOS average 2000 to 2016.
Figure 4-9. RB Scaled to the 17th FP EOS average 2000 to 2016
Figure 4-10. TE Scaled to the 17th FP EOS average 2000 to 2016
Figure 4-11. WR Scaled to the 17th FP EOS average 2000 to 2016
Figure 4-12. All Positions % of Yearly Total of Top Ranked Player by Year.
Figure 4-13. Rushing vs. Passing RB Production 2000 to 2016
Figure 4-14. Rushing vs. Passing RB Production 2000 to 2016
Deep Analysis of Positions at 1st, 12th, 24th, 36th and 48th Best Players by Year.
Figure 4-16. Seasonal Value of the 12th and 24th QBs by Year
Figure 4-17. Seasonal Value of the 12th, 24th, 36th and 48th RB by Year
Figure 4-18. Seasonal Value of the 12th, 24th, 36th and 48Th TE by Year
Figure 4-19. Seasonal Value of the 12th, 24th, 36th and 48Th WR by Year
Figure 4-20. Seasonal Value of the 12th QB and TE by Year
Figure 4-21. Seasonal Value of the 12th RB and WR by Year
Figure 4-23. Variation in the Top 50 Players EOS FP by Position.
Figure 4-24 Graph plots the Variation and the Range is apparent in those graphs.
Figure 4-25. 2000 to 2016 Positional Variation Scaled to the Average.
Figure 4-26. Scaled to the 17-year Positional Average of RBs, WRs, TEs and QBs.
Figure 4-27. Variation of the Positional Performance within the last 6 years.
Figure 4-28 Average Performance Score and Variation in 2016
Sector analysis of the 2016 positions looking at a weekly basis is shown in Figure 4-29.
Figure 4-29 EOS FP Sector Analysis of 2016 Players
Figure 4-30 Positional Worth by Sector.
Figure 4-31 EOS FP Scored from 2010 to 2016 by Sector and Position.
Figure 4-32 Graphical Presentation of the EOS FP Scored from 2010 to 2016 by Sector and Position.
Figure 4-33. % of Position Total of the 1 through 48th player of Each Position and % Difference in Value as Compared to Each Position’s Top Player.
Figure 4-34. Graphical Presentation of the 1st vs. 12th, 24th, 36th and 48Th players by position.
Conclusions from Figure 4-35 analysis.
Figure 4-35 EOS FP Scored from 2000 to 2016 by Sector and Position.
Figure 4-36 EOS FP on RB and WR Positions Only Scored from 2000 to 2016 by Sector and Position.
Chapter 5. Team Analysis and Distribution of PPR Points to each Position.
Figure 5-1 2013 to 2016 Team PPR performance
Figure 5-2 Improvement Scores for Teams from 2015 to 2016
Figure 5-3 Four Year Team PPR Totals and Percentage of League Grand Total
Positional Analysis from 2013 to 2016 by Team PPR Production
The Quarterback position from 2013 to 2016.
Figure 5-4. PPR Production from the QB
Figure 5-5 QB Performance Analysis from 2015 to 2016
Figure 5-6 4-year QB totals, % of League and Scaled Averages.
The Running Back Position from 2013 to 2016.
Figure 5-7. PPR Production from the RB
Figure 5-8 RB Performance Analysis from 2015 to 2016
Figure 5-9 4-year RB totals, % of League and Scaled Averages.
The Tight End Position from 2013 to 2016.
Figure 5-10. PPR Production from the TE 2013 to 2016
Figure 5-11 TE Performance Analysis from 2015 to 2016
Figure 5-12 4-year RB totals, % of League and Scaled Averages.
Analysis of the WR Position 2013 to 2016
5-13 Team WR PPR based Scoring from 2013 to 2016.
Figure 5-14 Improvement PPR Based Scoring of Teams WR 2015 to 2016
Figure 5-15 Four Year PPR Based Scoring for all Team WRs
NFL Divisional Team Position Analysis from 2013 to 2016.
Figure 5-16 AFC EAST - BUF / NYJ / MIA / NE
Figure 5-17 AFC NORTH – BAL/PIT/CLE/CIN
Figure 5-18 AFC SOUTH – IND/HOU/JAC/TEN
Figure 5-19 AFC WEST – DEN/KC/OAK/SD
Figure 5-20 NFC EAST – DAL/NYG/PHI/WAS
Figure 5-21 NFC NORTH – CHI/DET/GB/MIN
Figure 5-22 NFC SOUTH – ATL/CAR/NO/TB
Figure 5-23 NFC WEST – LAR/SEA/SF/ARI
Figure 5-24. Benchmark NFL League Positional Usage
Figure 5-25 4-Year QB Usage by Team vs. 2016 Levels
Figure 5-26 4-Year RB Usage by Team vs. 2016 Levels
Figure 5-27 4-Year TE Usage by Team vs. 2016 Levels
Figure 5-28 4-Year WR Usage by Team vs. 2016 Levels
Figure 5-29 2016 vs. 4-Year WR Usage DIFF QB/TE
Figure 5-30  2016  vs.  4-Year WR Usage DIFF RB/WR
Figures 5-31, 32, 33 and 34.
Colorized Scaled Differences in QB, RB, TE and WR
Figure 5-35. Landscape View 32 Team View 2016 vs. 4 years Positional Differences.
(Green Circles Highlight Extreme Changes)
Figures 5-36, 37, 38, 39, 40, and 41. Ratios of Team Usages 2013 to 2016. R/W – RB vs. WRs  R/T – RBs vs. TEs  W/T  - WRs vs. TEs
Figure 5-42.  Tops in R/W and W/T; 4-Year Ratios.
Chapter 6. ADP vs. Seasonal Player Performance
Figure 6-1. ADP List of Players (180th ADP) (Sept 2016) Vs. EOS PF Average.
Figure 6-2. Value Determination Using 2016 ADP Sector Analysis vs. EOS PF Scoring
Figure 6-3. 2016 Average Fantasy Points Scored by the PS ADP Sector Players
Figure 6-4. 2016 Average Fantasy Points Scored by the PS ADP Sector Players
2016 Positional Analysis of PS ADP vs. EOS PF Data
Figure 6-5 2016 PS ADP vs. EOS PF of Running Backs
Figure 6-6 2016 PS ADP vs. EOS PF of Wide Receivers
Figure 6-7 Comparison RB vs. WR PS ADP vs. EOS PF
Figure 6-8 RB vs. WR and PS ADP vs. EOS PF Data Scaled to Positional Average
Figure 6-9 2016 QB PS ADP vs. EOS PF Plot 1st to 24th Player
Figure 6-10 2016 TE PS ADP vs. EOS PF Plot 1st to 16th Player
Figure 6-11 A Combination Plot of the QB and TE position of PS ADP vs. EOS PF
Figure 6-12. A Landscape Plot of all Positions PS ADP vs. EOS PF with Log Averages Calculated
Analysis using Data from 2013 to 2106: A Four Year Window.
Figure 6-13. QB Position PS ADP vs. EOS PF within the 2013 to 16 Data Window.
Figure 6-14 TE Position PS ADP vs. EOS PF within the 2013 to 16 Data Window.
Figure 6-15 RB Position PS ADP vs. EOS PF within the 2013 to 16 Data Window.
Figure 6-16 RB Position PS ADP vs. EOS PF within the 2013 to 16 Data Window.
Figure 6-17 WR Position PS ADP vs. EOS PF within the 2013 to 16 Data Window.
Figure 6-18 WR Position PS ADP vs. EOS PF within the 2013 to 16 Data Window.
Sector/Sub-Sector Analysis of the 1st to 48th players by position from 2013 to 2016 (Figures 6-19 to 6-28)
Figure 6-19. 2013 to 2016 Average PS ADP of the Top 1 to 12 EOS players
Figure 6-20 Average Yearly Variation with the 1st to 12th Players by EOS PF by Position
Figure 6-21 Sub-Sector 1st to 6th EOS PF Players by Position from 2013 to 2016
Figure 6-22 Sub-Sector Variation of 1st to 6th Players by Position and Year
Figure 6-23. Sub-Sector EOS PF 7th to 12th Players by PS ADP Average by Year.
Figure 6-24. Sub-Sector EOS PF 7th to 12th Players by PS ADP Average Variation data by Year.
Figure 6-25. 13th to 24th EOS Players PS ADP Averages by Position and Year 2013 to 2016.
Figure 6-26.  Data Variation in 13th to 24th EOS Players PS ADP Averages of the QB, RB and WR Positions from the Year 2013 to 2016.
Figure 6-27. 25th to 36 and 37th to 48th EOS Players PS ADP Averages of the RB and WR from Year 2013 to 2016.
Figure 6-28. Data Variation 25th to 36 and 37th to 48th EOS Players PS ADP Averages of the RB and WR Positions and Year 2013 to 2016.
Figure 6-29. Relative Risk of RBs vs. WRs of the ADP Sectors vs. EOS PF
Chapter 7. Run vs. Pass Team Balance
Figure 7-1. Total Plays Run and Scaled Total Plays in 2016 By Team
Figure 7-2. Spiral Graph of the 2016 Team’s Total Plays
Figure 7-3. Offensive Bias in 2016 of Each Team by Pass vs. Run %
Figure 7-4. 2016 Team Efficiency Points per Minute
Figure 7-5, 32 NFL teams and their 2016 offensive efficiency Spirally Graphed
Figure 7-6. 2016 Yards per Minute of Offensive Plays.
Figure 7-7. Pass to Run Yardage Ratios for 2016
Chapter 8. 2016 Targets by Team Position and Player
2016 Targets Running Backs Target Totals Figures 8-1 to 8-3
2016 Running Backs Target per Game Figures 8-4 to 8-6
2016 Running Backs Scaled Target per Game Figures 8-7 to 8-10
2016 Tight End Targets/Targets per Game/Scaled Targets per Game. Figures 8-11 to 8-14
2016 Wide Receiver Targets/Targets per Game/Scaled Targets per Game Figures 8-15 to 8-18
Team 2016 Target Landscapes Target Total and Target Averages
Chapter 9. 2016 Rushing Attempts by Player and Team Analysis
Figures 9-1 and 9-2 Total Rushing Attempts in 2016.
Figures 9-3 and 9-4 2016 Rushing Attempts per Game
32 Team Landscapes of the 2016 Seasonal Rushing Attempts and Attempts per Game
Chapter 10. 2016 RB Targets vs. Rushing Attempts and Run/Pass Analysis.
Figures 10-1 to 10-8 are rather complex team level data considering RBs with Pass vs. Rushing data from 2013 to 2016
Figure 10-9 to 10-43 presents the player data from 2013 to 2016.
Figures 10-44 to 10-46. The Key Running Back Charts Passing vs. Running from 2016 data.
Chapter 11. 2016 PPR Performance Scoring and Analysis.
Figure 11-1 to 11-15. 2013 to 2016 PSNs of the QB, RB, TE and WR Positions.
Figures 11-16 to 11-30 2016 Weekly PSNs by Player and Position
Figures 11-31 to 11-64 2016 Weekly PSNs by Team Views Including Positions and Players
Chapter 12.  Non-PPR Performance Scoring.
Figures 12-1 to 12-24. 2013 to 2016 PSNs by Position and Player
Figures 12-25 to 12-37 2016 Weekly PSNs by Player and Position
Chapter 13 Analysis of Off-Season Team Switches in all Positions (2013 to 2016)
Figure 13-1. The Planning Fallacy
Figure 13-2 Reference Class Forecasting
Figure 13-3 Low Performance WRs
Figure 13-4 Mid Performance WRs
Figure 13-5 High Performance WRs
Group Averages, T Test and Probability Scores
Figure 13-6 Group Averages, T Test Stat, Probability, Conclusions
Applied WR Data Analysis.
Figure 13-7 High Performance WR Switching Teams for 2017
Figure 13-8 Best Case Projection for the High Performance WR Switching Teams for 2017
Figure 13-9 and 13-10. Mid Performance WRs Switching Teams for 2017.
Applied RBs Data Analysis.
Figure 13-11 High Performance RBs Switching Teams for 2017
Figure 13-12 Mid Performance RBs Switching Teams for 2017
Figure 13-13 Low Performance RBs Switching Teams for 2017
Group Averages, T Test and Probability Scores
Figure 13-14 RB Group Averages, T Test Stat, Probability, Conclusions
Applied TEs Data Analysis.
Figure 13-18 TE Group Averages, T Test Stat, Probability, Conclusions
Applied QBs Data Analysis.
Figure 13-22 QB Group Averages, T Test Stat, Probability, Conclusions
Overall Numerical Comparisons All Positions
Figure 13-23 Raw Numbers of the Four Positions Switching or Non Switching Teams
Figure 13-24 Positional % of the Four Positions Switching or Non Switching Teams
Figure 13-25 Graphical Positional % of the Four Positions Switching or Non Switching Teams
Chapter 14: Rookie Cohort Analysis and Survival Curves for 2007 to 2016 - PPR POINT Cohort Basis.
Wide Receiver Rookies by Cohorts
Figure 14-1 Rookies by Year Players: Key Variables
Figure 14-2 Rookies by Year Players: Percentage of the Key Variables
Figure 14-3 Rookies by Year Players: Graphical Presentation of Percentage of the Key Variables
WR Cohort Player Data with RK Year Colorized for Visual Analysis.
Figure 14-4 High RK 1 WRs
Figure 14-5 High RK 1 WRs Continued
Figure 14-6 Above Average RK 1 WRs
Figure 14-7 Above Average RK 1 WRs Continued
Figure 14-8 Below Average RK 1 WRs
Figure 14-9 Below Average RK 1 WRs Continued
Figure 14-10 Low PPR Average WR RK 1
Figure 14-11 Low PPR Average WR RK 1 Continued
Figure 14-12 Low PPR Average WR RK 1 Continued
Figure 14-13 ANOVA Test Results of RK 1 vs. RK 2 PPR Averages.
Figure 14-14 TUKEY HSD Results for the RK 1 vs. RK 2 WR Cohorts.
Figure 14-15 ANOVA Test Results of RK 1 vs. RK 3 PPR Averages.
Figure 14-16 TUKEY Test Results of RK 1 vs. RK 3 PPR Averages.
Figure 14-17 ANOVA Test Results of RK 1 vs. RK 4 PPR Averages.
Figure 14-18 TUKEY Test Results of RK 1 vs. RK 4 PPR Averages.
Figure 14-19 ANOVA Test Results of RK 2 vs. RK 3 PPR Averages.
Figure 14-20 TUKEY Test Results of RK 2 vs. RK 3 PPR Averages.
Figure 14-21 ANOVA Test Results of RK 2 vs. RK 4 PPR Averages.
Figure 14-22 TUKEY Test Results of RK 2 vs. RK 4 PPR Averages.
Figure 14-23 Survivorships of WRs from RK 1 to RK 9: Raw and Percentage Analysis of WRs by RK 1 PPR Production.
Figure 14-24 Graphical Representation of the Survivorship of WRs from RK 1 to RK 9: Raw and Percentage Analysis of WRs by RK 1 PPR Production.
RB Cohort Player Data with RK Year Colorized for Visual Analysis.
Figure 14-25. Rookie Years 1 to 9 and Key Variable Averages Compared.
Figure 14-26. Rookie Years 1 to 9 and Key Variable Averages Compared by Percentage Calculation.
Figure 14-27. Graphical Analysis of Rookie Years 1 to 9 and Key Variable Averages Compared by Percentage Calculation.
RB Cohort Testing and Analysis.
Figure 14-28 Highest RK 1 RBs
Figure 14-29 High RK 1 RBs
Figure 14-30 Above Average RK 1 RBs
Figure 14-31 Average RK 1 RBs
Figure 14-32 Below Average RK 1 RBs
Figure 14-33 Low RK 1 RBs
Figure 14-33 Lowest RK 1 RBs
Figure 14-34 Lowest RK 1 RBs Continued
Cohort Testing of RBs: RK1 vs. RK Year 2 PPR Point Averages.
Figure 14-35 RB Cohorts Defined and ANOVA Testing of RK 1 to RK 2.
Figure 14-36 TUKEY Testing of RK 1 to RK 2 PPR Production.
Cohort Testing of RBs: RK1 vs. RK Year 3 PPR Point Averages.
Figure 14-37. ANOVA Testing of RB Cohorts from RK 1 to RK 3
Figure 14-38.TUKEY’s Testing of RB Cohorts from RK 1 to RK 3: Finding the Groups.
Cohort Testing Using RK 2-Year Data.
Figure 14-39 RK 2 RB Cohort ANOVA Testing.
Figure 14-40 TUKEY Testing of RK 2 RB vs. RK 3 Year PPR Production
Cohort Analysis RK 2-Year RBs vs. Year 4 PPR Production.
Figure 14-41 ANOVA Testing RK 2 RBs vs. RK 4 Year PPR Production
Figure 14-42 TUKEY Testing of RK 2 RBs vs. RK 4 Year PPR Production
Cohort Analysis RK 2-Year RBs vs. Year 5 PPR Production.
Figure 14-43 ANOVA Testing of RK 2 RBs vs. RK 5 Year PPR Production
Figure 14-44 TUKEY Testing of RK 2 RBs vs. RK 5 Year PPR Production
Survivorship Analysis of RBs RK 1 to RK 9 Year.
Figure 14-45 Survivor Data of RBs Year 1 to 9 and Percentages of Cohorts Surviving into Year 9
Figure 14-46 Graphical Presentation of Survivor Data of RBs Year 1 to 9 and Percentages of Cohorts Surviving into Year 9
TE Cohort Player Data with RK Year Colorized for Visual Analysis.
Figure 14-47 Key Variables Raw Numerical Data from RK 1 to RK year 9 TEs.
Figure 14-48 Percentages of Key Variables Raw Numerical Data from RK 1 to RK year 9 TEs.
Figure 14-49 Graphical Visualization of Percentages of Key Variables Raw Numerical Data from RK 1 to RK year 9 TEs.
TE Cohort Player Data with RK Year Colorized for Visual Analysis.
Figure 14- 50 High RK 1 TEs
Figure 14- 51 Above Average RK 1 TEs
Figure 14- 52 Below Average RK 1 TEs
Figure 14- 53 Below Average RK 1 TEs
ANOVA and TUKEY Testing TE RK 1 vs. RK 2
Figure 14-54 ANOVA Testing RK 1 TEs vs. RK 2s PPR Point Averages
Figure 14-55. TUKEY Test Analysis of TEs RK 1 vs. RK 2. Cohorts Defined.
Cohort Testing RK 1 year vs. RK 3 TEs
Figure 14-56. ANOVA Test Analysis of TEs RK 1 vs. RK 3. Cohorts Defined.
Figure 14-57 TUKEY Test Analysis of RK 1 TEs Vs. RK 3 Year.
Cohort Testing TE RK 1 vs. RK 4 Year
Figure 14-58 ANOVA Analysis of RK 1 TEs vs. RK 4 Year.
Figure 14-60 Survivorships of TEs from RK 1 to RK 9: Raw and Percentage Analysis of TEs by RK 1 PPR Production.
Figure 14-61 Graphical Presentation of TEs Survivorship from RK 1 to RK 9: Raw and Percentage Analysis of TEs by RK 1 PPR Production.
Quarterback Rookies by Cohorts
Figure 14-62 QBs Key Variables from RK 1 to RK 9 Year,
Figure 14-63. Percentage of QBs Key Variables from RK 1 to RK 9 Year.
Figure 14-64. Graphical Presentation of the Percentage of QBs Key Variables from RK 1 to RK 9 Year.
Figure 14-65 High RK 1 Cohort QBs from RK 1 to RK 9
Figure 14-66 Above Average RK 1 Cohort QBs from RK 1 to RK 9
Figure 14-67 Below Average RK 1 Cohort QBs from RK 1 to RK 9
Figure 14-68 RK 1 Cohort QBs from RK 1 to RK 9
QB Cohort ANOVA and TUKEY Test using 4 RK 1 PPR average groups as described previously.
Figure 14-69 ANOVA Testing of QB RK 1 PPR Average Cohort vs. RK 2
Figure 14-70 TUKEY Testing of QB RK 1 PPR Average Cohort vs. RK 2
Figure 14-71 ANOVA Testing of QB RK 1 PPR Average Cohort vs. RK 3 Production
Figure 14-72 TUKEY Testing of QB RK 1 PPR Average Cohort vs. RK 3 Production
Survivorship of QBs Analysis from RK 1 to RK 9 Year.
Figure 14-73. QB Survivorship Raw Data and Percentages Calculated.
Figure 14-74. Graphical Presentation of QB Survivorship Percentages.
Positional Survivorships Compared.
Figure 14-75 Tabular and Graphical Representation of WR vs. RB from RK 1 to Year 9
Figure 14-76 Tabular and Graphical Representation of TE vs. RB from RK 1 to Year 9
Figure 14-77 Tabular and Graphical Representation of TE vs. WR from RK 1 to Year 9
Chapter 15: Top 15 Ranks by NFL Draft: 2013 to 2016 Rookie Analysis.
Figure 15-1. Rookie Players Draft Picks vs. their 4 Year PSN Numbers
Figure 15-2 60 Top 15 WRs from 2013 to 16 Ranked by PSN
Figure 15-3 TUKEY Test Analysis of the 3 PSN based WR Drafted Top 15 2013 to 2016
Figure 15-4. End of Season Scoring vs. Top, Mid, Low and Out WRs Percentages in the NFL Draft.
Figure 15-5 Graphical Representation of the Percentages of WR Groups vs. EOS Scoring.
Figure 15-6. Rookie Year 1 to 3 with Numbers and PPR Point Averages.
Figure 15-7 Part 1 ANOVA Testing Results Cohorts A, B and C WRs.
Figure 15-8 Part 2 ANOVA Testing Results Cohorts A, B and C WRs.
Figure 15-9 TUKEY Test Analysis of WR Cohorts RK 1, 1 and 3 Years Out.
Conclusions
Chapter 16 Rookie Positional Analysis and Survival Curves. 2007 to 2016 NFL Draft Cohorts
Questions:
Analysis of Quarterbacks from RK 1 to RK 9 Survivors and PPR Cohorts by Draft Rounds
Key QB Variables by QB for each Draft Round.
Figure 16-1 Key Variable Averages for Quarterbacks by NFL Draft Round
Figure 16-2 Percentages of Top Key Variable Averages for Quarterbacks by NFL Draft Round
Figure 16-3 Graphical Presentation of the QB Key Variable Percentages
Figure 16 -4 (A, B, C and D) Draft Round QBs Key Variable Averages RK 1 to RK 9
Survivorship of QBs
Cohort Test QBs vs. DF Levels and PPR Pts. Production RK 1
Figure 16-7 Raw Numbers for Cohort Testing of QBs from different Draft Rounds vs. RK 1 PPR Points
Figure 16-8 ANOVA and TUKEY Cohort Testing of QBs from different Draft Rounds vs. RK 1 PPR Points
Cohort Test QBs vs. DF Levels and PPR Pts. Production RK 2
Figure 16-9 Raw Numbers for Cohort Testing of QBs from different Draft Rounds vs. RK 2 PPR Points
Figure 16-10 ANOVA and TUKEY Cohort Testing of QBs from different Draft Rounds vs. RK 2 PPR Points
Cohort Test QBs vs. DF Levels and PPR Pts. Production RK 3
Figure 16-11 Raw Numbers for Cohort Testing of QBs from different Draft Rounds vs. RK 3 PPR Points
Figure 16-12 ANOVA and TUKEY Cohort Testing of QBs from different Draft Rounds vs. RK 3 PPR Points
Analysis of Tight Ends RK 1 to RK 9 Survivors and PPR Cohorts by Draft Rounds
TE Key Variables and Percentages for each Draft Round
Figure 16-13 Key Variable Averages and Percentages for Tight Ends by NFL Draft Round
Figure 16-14 Graphical Representation of the Key Variable Averages and Percentages for Tight Ends by NFL Draft Round
Figure 16- 15 (A, B, C and D) Draft Round TEs Key Variable Averages RK 1 to RK 9
Cohort Test TEs vs. DF Levels and PPR Pts. Production RK 1
Figure 16-16 Raw Numbers for Cohort Testing of TEs from different Draft Rounds vs. RK 1 PPR Points
Figure 16-17 ANOVA and TUKEY Cohort Testing of TEs from different Draft Rounds vs. RK 1 PPR Points
Cohort Test TEs vs. DF Levels and PPR Pts. Production RK 2
Figure 16-18 Raw Numbers for Cohort Testing of TEs from different Draft Rounds vs. RK 2 PPR Points
Figure 16-19 ANOVA and TUKEY Cohort Testing of TEs from different Draft Rounds vs. RK 2 PPR Points
Cohort Test TEs vs. DF Levels and PPR Pts. Production RK 3
Figure 16-20 Raw Numbers for Cohort Testing of TEs from different Draft Rounds vs. RK 3 PPR Points
Figure 16-21 ANOVA and TUKEY Cohort Testing of TEs from Different Draft Rounds vs. RK 3 PPR Points
Cohort Test TEs vs. DF Levels and PPR Pts. Production RK 4
Figure 16-23 ANOVA and TUKEY Cohort Testing of TEs from Different Draft Rounds vs. RK 4 PPR Points
Survivorship of TEs
Analysis of Running Backs RK 1 to RK 9 Survivors and PPR Cohorts by Draft Rounds
Figure 16-28 Percentages and Raw Key Variable Averages for Running Backs by NFL Draft Round
Figure 16-29 Graphical Presentation of the RB Key Variable Percentages
Figure 16-30 (A, B, C, D, and E) Draft Round RBs Key Variable Averages RK 1 to RK 9
Figure 16-31 Graphical Presentation of RB Average PPR Points from Rushing by DF Level over Nine Years
Cohort Test RBs vs. DF Levels and PPR Pts. Production RK 1
Figure 16-32 Raw Numbers for Cohort Testing of RBs from different Draft Rounds vs. RK 1 PPR Points
Figure 16-33 ANOVA and TUKEY Cohort Testing of RBs from different Draft Rounds vs. RK 1 PPR Points
Cohort Test RBs vs. DF Levels and PPR Pts. Production RK 2
Figure 16-34 Raw Numbers for Cohort Testing of RBs from different Draft Rounds vs. RK 2 PPR Points
Figure 16-35 ANOVA and TUKEY Cohort Testing of RBs from different Draft Rounds vs. RK 2 PPR Points
Cohort Test RBs vs. DF Levels and PPR Pts. Production RK 3
Figure 16-36 Raw Numbers for Cohort Testing of RBs from different Draft Rounds vs. RK 3 PPR Points
Figure 16-37 ANOVA and TUKEY Cohort Testing of RBs from different Draft Rounds vs. RK 3 PPR Points
Survivorship of RBs
Figure 16-38 Nine-Year Survivorship of RB from DF 1 to 9 and Non Drafted
Analysis of Wide Receivers RK 1 to RK 9 Survivors and PPR Cohorts by Draft Rounds
Figure 16-40 Percentages and Raw Key Variable Averages for WRs by NFL Draft Round
Figure 16-41 Graphical Presentation of the RB Key Variable Percentages
Figure 16-42 (A, B, C and D) Draft Round QBs Key Variable Averages RK 1 to RK 9
Figure 16-43 Graphical Presentation of WR Average PPR Points from Rushing by DF Level over Nine Years
Cohort Test WRs vs. DF Levels and PPR Pts. Production RK 1
Figure 16-44 Raw Numbers for Cohort Testing of WRs from different Draft Rounds vs. RK 1 PPR Points
Figure 16-45 ANOVA and TUKEY Cohort Testing of WRs from different Draft Rounds vs. RK 1 PPR Points
Cohort Test WRs vs. DF Levels and PPR Pts. Production RK 2
Figure 16-46 Raw Numbers for Cohort Testing of QBs from different Draft Rounds vs. RK 2 PPR Points
Figure 16-47 ANOVA and TUKEY Cohort Testing of QBs from different Draft Rounds vs. RK 2 PPR Points
Cohort Test WRs vs. DF Levels and PPR Pts. Production RK 3
Figure 16-48 Raw Numbers for Cohort Testing of WRs from different Draft Rounds vs. RK 3 PPR Points
Figure 16-49 ANOVA and TUKEY Cohort Testing of WRs from different Draft Rounds vs. RK 3 PPR Points
Survivorship of WRs
Figure 16-50 A, B and C Raw and Graphical Presentation of the 9-Year Survivorship DF 1 to 9 Rounds Drafted vs. 9 Years Out
Survivorships Compared RB vs. WRs vs. TEs
Figure 16-51 Percentages of the RBs TE and WRs DF 1 to 8 and ND over Nine Years Outward.
Figure 16-52 Percentages of the RBs TE and WRs DF 1 to 8 and ND at RK 2
Figure 16-53 Graphical Presentation of the Percentages of the RBs TE and WRs DF 1 to 8 and ND at RK 2
Figure 16-54 Percentages of the RBs TE and WRs DF 1 to 8 and ND at RK 3
Figure 16-55 Graphical Presentation of the Percentages of the RBs TE and WRs DF 1 to 8 and ND at RK 3
Figure 16-56 Percentages of the RBs TE and WRs DF 1 to 8 and ND at RK 4
Figure 16-57 Graphical Presentation of the Percentages of the RBs TE and WRs DF 1 to 8 and ND at RK 4
Figure 16-58 Percentages of the RBs TE and WRs DF 1 to 8 and ND at RK 5
Figure 16-59 Graphical Presentation of the Percentages of the RBs TE and WRs DF 1 to 8 and ND at RK 5
Figure 16-60 Percentages of the RBs TE and WRs DF 1 to 8 and ND at RK 6
Figure 16-61 Graphical Presentation of the Percentages of the RBs TE and WRs DF 1 to 8 and ND at RK 6
Figure 16-62 Percentages of the RBs TE and WRs DF 1 to 8 and ND at RK 7
Figure 16-63 Graphical Presentation of the Percentages of the RBs TE and WRs DF 1 to 8 and ND at RK 7
WR vs. RB Focused Study
Figure 16-64 Differential Percentages of the WRs vs. RBs DF 1 to 8 and ND Over Nine Years
Figure 16-65 Graphical Presentation of the Differential Percentages of the WRs vs. RBs DF 1 to 8 and ND Over Nine Years
WR vs. TE Focused Study
Figure 16-66 Differential Percentages of the WRs vs. TEs DF 1 to 8 and ND Over Nine Years
Figure 16-67 Graphical Presentation of the Differential Percentages of the WRs vs. TEs DF 1 to 8 and ND Over Nine Years
RB vs. TE Focused Study
Figure 16-68 Differential Percentages of the RBs vs. TEs DF 1 to 8 and ND Over Nine Years
Figure 16-69 Graphical Presentation of the Differential Percentages of the RBs vs. TEs DF 1 to 8 and ND Over Nine Years
Extended Deeper Analysis of WR, RB and TE BY Key Factors vs. Position and NFL Draft Round
Each Position’s PPR Production Cohort Analysis.
Figure 16-77 Percentages of the 30% vs. 70% PPR Averages with DF Overall Average for TEs
Figure 16-78 Graphical Presentation of the Percentages of the 30% vs. 70% PPR Averages with DF Overall Average for TEs.
Figure 16-79 Raw Numbers and Percentages of 3 PPR Point Cohorts Between the DF Rounds for TEs.
Figure 16-80 Percentages of 3 PPR Point Cohorts Within Each DF Rounds for TEs.
Figure 16-81 Graphical Representations of the Percentages of 3 PPR Point Cohorts Within Each DF Rounds for TEs.
Figure 16-82 Top 30% in PPR Average Points vs. Bottom 70% by DF Round
Figure 16-83 Percentages of the 30% vs. 70% Bottom PPR Averages with DF Overall Average for RBs
Figure 16-83 Raw Numbers and Percentages of 3 PPR Point Cohorts Between the DF Rounds for RBs.
Figure 16-84 Percentages of 3 PPR Point Cohorts Within Each DF Rounds for RBs.
Figure 16-85 Graphical Representations of the Percentages of 3 PPR Point Cohorts Within Each DF Rounds for RBs.
Figure 16-86 Percentages of the 30% vs. 70% Bottom PPR Averages with DF Overall Average for WRs
Figure 16-87 Graphical Presentation of the Top 30% in PPR Average Points vs. Bottom 70% by DF Round of WRs
Figure 16-88 A and B Raw Numbers and Percentages of 3 PPR Point Cohorts Between the DF Rounds for WRs.
Figure 16-89 Percentages of 3 PPR Point Cohorts Within Each DF Rounds for RBs.
Figure 16-90 Graphical Representations of the Percentages of 3 PPR Point Cohorts Within Each DF Rounds for RBs.
Figure 16-91 Positional Cohort Comparisons WR vs. RBs 30% vs. 70%
Figure 16-92 Graphical Presentation of the Differential Positional Cohort Comparisons WR vs. RBs 30% vs. 70%
Figure 16-93 Positional Cohort Comparisons WR vs. TEs 30% vs. 70%
Figure 16-94 Graphical Presentation of the Differential Positional Cohort Comparisons WR vs. TEs 30% vs. 70%
Figure 16-95 Positional Cohort Comparisons RB vs. TEs 30% vs. 70%
Figure 16-96 Graphical Presentation of the Differential Positional Cohort Comparisons RB vs. TEs 30% vs. 70%
CHAPTER 16A Rookie Data Continued
Part 1 2017 Rookies Preliminary Analysis by Draft Round and Position.
Part 2 Reference Figures of Players by Position and Drafted in the First, Second, or Third Rounds
Chapter 17.  Team Defense Analysis and SOS for 2017
SUMMARY DEFENSE SOS DATA BY TEAM AND POSITION SEGMENTED BY WEEKS AND WEEK GROUPINGS INCLUDING PLAYOFFS
FPA (Fantasy Points Against) BY TEAM AND POSITION 2017
Chapter 18. Draft Pattern Research Updated
Figure 18-1 2013 ANOVA Testing of the 3 Draft Patterns
Figure 18-2 2013 TUKEY Testing of the 3 Draft Patterns
Figure 18-3 2013 Graph of the 3072 Teams by Draft Patterns
Figure 18-4 2013 Graph of the Percentage Segments vs. Draft Patterns
Figure 18-5 2014 ANOVA Testing of the 3 Draft Patterns
Figure 18-6 2014 TUKEY Testing of the 3 Draft Patterns
Figure 18-7 2014 Graph of the 3072 Teams by Draft Patterns
Figure 18-8 2014 Graph of the Percentage Segments vs. Draft Patterns
Figure 18-9 2015 ANOVA Testing of the 3 Draft Patterns
Figure 18-10 2015 TUKEY Testing of the 3 Draft Patterns
Figure 18-11 2015 Graph of the 3072 Teams by Draft Patterns
Figure 18-12 2015 Graph of the Percentage Segments vs. Draft Patterns
Figure 18-13 2016 ANOVA Testing of the 3 Draft Patterns
Figure 18-14 2016 TUKEY Testing of the 3 Draft Patterns
Figure 18-15 2016 Graph of the 3072 Teams by Draft Patterns
Figure 18-16 2016 Graph of the Percentage Segments vs. Draft Patterns
Figure 18-17 2013 to 2016 ANOVA Testing of the 3 Draft Patterns
Figure 18-18 2013 to 2016 ANOVA Testing of the 3 Draft Patterns
Figure 18-19 2013 to 2016 Graph of the 5760 Teams by Draft Patterns
Figure 18-20 2013 to 2016 Graph of the Percentage Segments vs. Draft Patterns
Chapter 19.  Dynasty League Drafting and Startup Rankings.
Figure 19-1 Illustration of Prospect Theory in Dynasty Leagues
Dynasty Start-Up Rankings
Figure 19-2 ADP Draft Picks1 to 4
Figure 19-3 ADP Draft Picks 5 to 8
Figure 19-4 ADP Draft Picks 9 to 12
Figure 19-5 ADP Draft Picks 13 to 16
Figure 19-6 ADP Draft Picks by Position and Round

Dynasty Rookie Rankings With Risk Analysis

Chapter 20. Critique of the Textbook:
Q&A with David Cherney
Question1
In chapter 1, we discuss personal factors such as off-season education, time on task, and importance of drafting to your team in redraft leagues. In dynasty leagues are these personal issues critical for success?
Question 2
Human cognitive biases will affect fantasy football player’s decisions and behaviors mainly for the worst. We highlighted 3 biases (Chapter 19) we thought we critical in dynasty leagues. What is your thinking about biases in dynasty drafting, trading, and in season play?
Question 3
In chapter 3, we discuss the need for understanding statistical thinking. What role do stats play in dynasty league success?
Question 4
Did WRs regress as a position last year? In chapter 4, the overall data seemed to suggest a poor year for WRs as a group?
Question 5
Given the bias in dynasty drafting for WRs over RBs that we published at your site, www.fakepigskin.com, did the WR struggles in 2016 as a group affect the dynasty landscape?
Question 6
Will the 2016 season change the value of WRs in dynasty as perceived by players?
Question 7
Do you look at team positional usages of WR vs. TEs vs. RBs? If so, is positional usage a primary or secondary factor for dynasty players?
Question 8
In chapter 6, we showed that undrafted players do not keep up with players that were drafted in the regular NFL draft. Does this play a role in your dynasty drafting thinking?
Question 9
We also stated that across the last four years of our data, WR were better predicted by the ADP than RBs (Chapter 6).
So when tied on a RB and WR, we have seen the ADP can be a good tiebreaker?
We conclude that after the 36th WR has been drafted there is a higher chance of finding sleepers.
Do these findings change your dynasty thoughts?
Chapter 21 Early 2017 MFL10s, ADP Analysis, Rankings and Risk
Chapter 22 Early 2017 PPR REDRAFT ADP Analysis, PLAYER Rankings and Risk
Chapter 23. Non-PPR Redraft, Player Rankings, ADP and Risk Analysis.
Chapter 24. Half Point PPR Redraft, Player Rankings and Risk Analysis.

Appendix Chapters
Appendix Chapter 1: How to Do Seasonal Projections
Step 1. – Gather your data as shown in Figure 41.
Figure 41. Projection Overview Data Consisting of Total Team Points 2013 to 2015
Step 2 Break down the positions by player to estimate 2016.
Figure 42. ARI QB and RB Player PPR Breakdown.
Figure 43. ARI TE and WR Player PPR Breakdown
Step 3. Talley the Numbers and Confirm your Projections
Figure 44. First Pass for the 2016 Projections.
Appendix Chapter 2: Draft Preparations and Testing; Finding Anti-Sleepers vs. Sleepers
Figure 45. Top Five May 2015 Sleeper QB Ranked from Bottom to Top.
Lesson one is getting your sleepers together
By mid June at least.
Figure 46. Top Five Anti-sleepers from Blog 5/31/15
Lesson two is avoiding the Anti-sleepers.
Lesson three is using this kind of approach to look at these players via a TEAM analysis.
Figure 47. NFC WEST Metrics 2015
Figure 48. 3D MAP of the Teams
Figure 49. ADP MAP from June 2015
Figure 50. 2014 vs. 2015 PPR Draft Data in the First 8 Rounds
The final lesson is that as you go into drafts you need to consider the way certain players earned points.
Figure 51. 2014 RBs % of their Total PPR Points from TDs
Figure 52. 2015 data of RBs and their PPR Points Broken Down
Cheat Sheets
Appendix Chapter 3: Draft Preparations and Testing; Scenario Modeling Using Mock Drafting
Sleeper Draft Mapping. Where are the Sleepers and Anti-Sleepers?
A Suggested Protocol
Figure 53. Early July 2015 Round 16 Sleeper Candidates
Our Conclusions about players from each round.
Figure 54. Early July 2015 Round 1 to 4 Sleeper Draft Maps
Figure 55. Early July 2015 Round 5 to 8 Sleeper Draft Maps
Figure 56. Early July 2015 Round 9 to 12 Sleeper Draft Maps
Figure 57. Early July 2015 Round 13 to 16 Sleeper Draft Maps
Appendix Chapter 4: Draft Modeling: Examples (This section is based on Our blog post from 7/28/15)
Figure 58. Mock Draft of Zero RB Team
Figure 59. Mock Draft Team Early RB
Figure 60. Mock Draft Team Best Available
Perfect Draft Pick (1st through 12th) vs. Current Projections
Figure 61. Number and Positions Drafted Using the Current 7/29/15 ADP for Each Draft Pick 1 to 12.
Figure 62. Average Projected PPR Points for each team drafted at the draft pick
Figure 63. Draft Modeling Using FSP’s PPR Projections (7/29/15)
Appendix Chapter 5: Draft Pick 1 to 12 Using Zero RB Hypothesis.  (Blog Post 8/2/15)
Figure 64. Pick 1st to 4th Picks Mock Draft Model Testing Zero RB Hypothesis.
Figure 65. Pick 5th to 8th Mock Draft Model Testing Zero RB Hypothesis.
Figure 66. Draft Pick 9th to 12th Position Mock Draft Model Testing Zero RB Hypothesis.
Figure 67. Results for our Mock Drafts Variation of the Draft Pick Position.
Appendix Chapter 6: Analysis of Hypothetically Drafted Teams using data from the years 2013 to 2015 Seasons.
Figure 69. The average of the 4 player’s PPR season point totals.
Figure 70. Frequency Distribution of Teams Created by Random Generation Based on One of Three Patterns.
Figure 71. Distribution of Teams from Low to High Groups (Scoring Sectors) Generated by One of the Three Patterns
Appendix Chapter 7: Draft Preparations and Testing; Draft Action Plans and Predictable Decisions
Example Action Plans Published on the Blog 8/31/15
Figure 72. 2015 Example Draft Plan using an Early WR Model Balanced.
Figure 75. 2015 10 Early WRs Biased PPR Mocks.
Figure 76. 10 Early RBs Biased PPR Mocks.
Figure 77. 10 Early RB QB Biased PPR Mocks.
Figure 78. Summary of our Scores and Rankings June 2015
Round By Round Points
Special situations
Develop a Sleeper Stock market
Figure 80. Sleeper QBs 5/30 to 7/15/15
Figure 81. Sleeper RBs 5/30 to 7/15/15
Figure 82. Sleeper TEs 5/30 to 7/15/15
Figure 83. Sleeper WRs 5/30 to 7/15/15
Appendix Chapter 8: After the Draft Stress-Tests and Analysis
After Draft Stress Test
Figure 84. Example of a mock team with point projections from 2015
Step 3.
Figure 85 Exploding Donut Diagram of the WR Position
Step 3.1
Figure 86. Exploding Donut Diagram of the RB Position
Things to do after the draft to prepare for 2017 analysis.
Do Before the Season Starts
Do in Season
After Season
Figure 87. Exploding Donut Diagram of the QB Position % in all Our 2015 Drafts.
Appendix Chapter 8: Blog Post 1. Analysis of Competing Hypotheses in Fantasy Football Analysis.
Here is the Heuer approach modified to apply to Fantasy Football. Step by Step for Analysis of FF Drafting - Hypothesis driven.
Appendix Chapter 9: Blog Post 2. Analysis of Competing Hypotheses in Fantasy Football Analysis.
Figure 88. Example of Preseason Defense Data.
Appendix Chapter 10: Blog Post 3. Fighting Decision Fatigue (DF) during drafting.
Appendix Chapter 11: Blog Post #4 Avoiding Anchor Bias in Fantasy Football (or at least recognize it is there)
Appendix Chapter 12: Blog Post #5 Does More Information Increase Accuracy in Fantasy Football?
Appendix Chapter 13: Blog Post #6 Can Rapid-Fire Reasoning and Its Research Conclusion help in Fantasy Football?

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