Monday, June 5, 2017

Analysis of 500 PPR Mock Drafts to the 7th round. Patterns Detected. Conclusions Stated

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Belief: The ADP can only give so much insight.


Do the Positional Raw Numbers taken by Draft Rounds in Mock Drafts Allow Deeper Analysis for Real Drafts?

Methods: 500 PPR based mock draft results were gathered from the 
Fantasy Football Calculator Web Site (fantasyfootballcalculator link) 

and placed into a spreadsheet. Using pivot tables and simple calculations, we generated the following tables, charts and results

Figure 1 Simple Determination of the Position Drafted and % of 500 Drafts Representative.

We conclude from the data in figure 1 that:
  • WR dominate early and RBs dominate in the later rounds to round 7. 
  • QBs and TEs were rarely drafted in the first two rounds. 
  • WR start-out at nearly 50% and drop to 30% by round 7.

Figure 2: Positional Analysis By Draft Round 1 to 7.

We conclude:
  • QBs are taking off by round 7 at 17% levels while rare early.
  • TEs are fairly steady at 15% by round 4. 
  • WRs Dominate early and drop to 28 30%. We propose that by round 6 folks are grabbing RBs more than WRs. People Drafting WRs early and then jumping to RBs
  • RBs High Early Nice drop in round 3 and then climbing up. (See Figure 3 Graph)

Figure 3 Graphical Presentation of Draft Positional Selections Rounds 1 to 7

Figures 4 to 7. Graphical Presentation With Moving Average Plotted by Position

Analysis confirms the trend for WRs dropping from a Round 3 peak and RBs hitting the reciprocal low point in Round 3 and 4 followed by nice increases in round 5 to 7.  

Therefore if you draft RBs in Rounds 3/4 and WR in 5 to 7 you are going against the trends.

Patterns Seen by Rounds

R1 and 2  
Clear winners are combos of RB and WRs. Rare QB and TEs

Rounds 1, 2 and 3 Top Patterns

  • RB WR WR             (14%)
  • WR RB WR             (12.4%)
  • RB RB WR              (11.8)
  • WR WR WR            (11%)
  • (note RB RB RB at 4%)

Round 3 Patterns Sorted By High to Low
Note the Rare vs Common.

Are you following the herd?  
Is that a good or bad strategy?

Rounds 1, 2, 3, and 4 Top Patterns
Sorted by RB first followed by WR first

Round 4 Top to Bottom Patterns

The patterns are collapsing together but 
RB RB WR WR is the top pattern 

Followed by


We suggest moving the RB into Round 3/4 away from the herd.  

 Note that WR WR RB RB is at 2% Interesting. 

ROUND 5 Pattern Figures

Clearly the patterns are set here and are collapsing into each other.

TOP 2 Patterns (3.5 to 4%)

3 WRs are common in the top with 2 RBs in the mix in about 20% of teams. 

Your draft schemes should consider these data and identified patterns. These figure should inspire a move to better drafting. Good Luck.

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