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Belief: The ADP can only give so much insight.
Do the Positional Raw Numbers taken by Draft Rounds in Mock Drafts Allow Deeper Analysis for Real Drafts?
Methods: 500 PPR based mock draft results were gathered from the
Fantasy Football Calculator Web Site (fantasyfootballcalculator link)
and placed into a spreadsheet. Using pivot tables and simple calculations, we generated the following tables, charts and results
Figure 1 Simple Determination of the Position Drafted and % of 500 Drafts Representative.
We conclude from the data in figure 1 that:
- WR dominate early and RBs dominate in the later rounds to round 7.
- QBs and TEs were rarely drafted in the first two rounds.
- WR start-out at nearly 50% and drop to 30% by round 7.
Figure 2: Positional Analysis By Draft Round 1 to 7.
- QBs are taking off by round 7 at 17% levels while rare early.
- TEs are fairly steady at 15% by round 4.
- WRs Dominate early and drop to 28 30%. We propose that by round 6 folks are grabbing RBs more than WRs. People Drafting WRs early and then jumping to RBs
- RBs High Early Nice drop in round 3 and then climbing up. (See Figure 3 Graph)
Figure 3 Graphical Presentation of Draft Positional Selections Rounds 1 to 7
Figures 4 to 7. Graphical Presentation With Moving Average Plotted by Position
Analysis confirms the trend for WRs dropping from a Round 3 peak and RBs hitting the reciprocal low point in Round 3 and 4 followed by nice increases in round 5 to 7.
Therefore if you draft RBs in Rounds 3/4 and WR in 5 to 7 you are going against the trends.
Patterns Seen by Rounds
R1 and 2
Clear winners are combos of RB and WRs. Rare QB and TEs
- RB WR WR (14%)
- WR RB WR (12.4%)
- RB RB WR (11.8)
- WR WR WR (11%)
- (note RB RB RB at 4%)
RB WR WR RB WR
3 WRs are common in the top with 2 RBs in the mix in about 20% of teams.
Your draft schemes should consider these data and identified patterns. These figure should inspire a move to better drafting. Good Luck.