Analysis of 500 PPR Mock Drafts to the 7th round. Patterns Detected. Conclusions Stated


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Belief: The ADP can only give so much insight.

Hypothesis:  

Do the Positional Raw Numbers taken by Draft Rounds in Mock Drafts Allow Deeper Analysis for Real Drafts?



Methods: 500 PPR based mock draft results were gathered from the 
Fantasy Football Calculator Web Site (fantasyfootballcalculator link) 

and placed into a spreadsheet. Using pivot tables and simple calculations, we generated the following tables, charts and results

Figure 1 Simple Determination of the Position Drafted and % of 500 Drafts Representative.


We conclude from the data in figure 1 that:
  • WR dominate early and RBs dominate in the later rounds to round 7. 
  • QBs and TEs were rarely drafted in the first two rounds. 
  • WR start-out at nearly 50% and drop to 30% by round 7.


Figure 2: Positional Analysis By Draft Round 1 to 7.


We conclude:
  • QBs are taking off by round 7 at 17% levels while rare early.
  • TEs are fairly steady at 15% by round 4. 
  • WRs Dominate early and drop to 28 30%. We propose that by round 6 folks are grabbing RBs more than WRs. People Drafting WRs early and then jumping to RBs
  • RBs High Early Nice drop in round 3 and then climbing up. (See Figure 3 Graph)

Figure 3 Graphical Presentation of Draft Positional Selections Rounds 1 to 7



Figures 4 to 7. Graphical Presentation With Moving Average Plotted by Position








Analysis confirms the trend for WRs dropping from a Round 3 peak and RBs hitting the reciprocal low point in Round 3 and 4 followed by nice increases in round 5 to 7.  

Therefore if you draft RBs in Rounds 3/4 and WR in 5 to 7 you are going against the trends.



Patterns Seen by Rounds

R1 and 2  
Clear winners are combos of RB and WRs. Rare QB and TEs


Rounds 1, 2 and 3 Top Patterns

  • RB WR WR             (14%)
  • WR RB WR             (12.4%)
  • RB RB WR              (11.8)
  • WR WR WR            (11%)
  • (note RB RB RB at 4%)


Round 3 Patterns Sorted By High to Low
Note the Rare vs Common.

Are you following the herd?  
Is that a good or bad strategy?




Rounds 1, 2, 3, and 4 Top Patterns
Sorted by RB first followed by WR first





Round 4 Top to Bottom Patterns

The patterns are collapsing together but 
RB RB WR WR is the top pattern 

Followed by

RB WR WR RB
  WR WR WR RB 
WR RB WR RB

We suggest moving the RB into Round 3/4 away from the herd.  

 Note that WR WR RB RB is at 2% Interesting. 


ROUND 5 Pattern Figures

Clearly the patterns are set here and are collapsing into each other.














TOP 2 Patterns (3.5 to 4%)
WR WR WR RB RB
RB WR WR RB WR

3 WRs are common in the top with 2 RBs in the mix in about 20% of teams. 


Your draft schemes should consider these data and identified patterns. These figure should inspire a move to better drafting. Good Luck.

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