Live Blogging A MFL 10

https://www77.myfantasyleague.com/2017/home/89151#0

LIVE Blogging Now! Welcome!

This is my first MFL 10 of the season. 

Using my Landscape data I am planning to have a TE and QB by rounds 9 and a DEF by round 13. These are a full round ahead of the ends of the first 12 TE and QB and before the great DEF run in R14.  I will try draft 3 TEs, 3 DEFs by the end


I have Draft Pick 5, I expect the 3 RBs to go so I expect to take a Solid WR 1.

Lets see what is available as the draft has just started

Below is the average predicted MFL 10 Landscape.  We expect to see a balanced RB to WR in the first 2 rounds but a very unbalanced R3 and R4 with 6 RB to 13 WR expected to be drafted.
The first 3 TEs and QB should be gone by the end of Round 4.



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My Pick now as the first 4 are in.

FIRST 4 Picks WERE




MY CHOICES ARE



I picked ODB but JJ was right there as well. Broke the tie in my head by the injury issues of JJ. I think Marshall will actually lower the defensive pressure on ODB. 

Next Pick Up! 

The Left Column are drafted players. The right are the next group of players I am thinking about.  I am 2 picks away from my selection. I am not drafting a QB this early or TEs. Gronk is something to think about though. I am thinking about the players marked in green.

Howard seems interesting to me as does Fournette as they seems to be "workhorse" types?  I like Robinson to bounce back as well as Dez. I am thinking its within these 4 players.

More Later

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I was several Picks out for my third pick. I was hoping J Howard would be around but then was not the case. I was choosing between A Rob, J Landry and K Allen as my WR2. I chose J Landry as the "safest" of these 3 WRs given injury history



I current am waiting for my 4th pick with 12 picks to go. Again I expect a lot of WRs to go before me.

Still 11 picks out.
Here are some players that could be around




Below is the run-up to my 4th pick.  My Top WR choice was Crabtree and he was available. I selected him with glee! I would have take Crowell as he was falling down the pick but he was taken before me. 



Rounds 5 to 8

We next turn to R 5 to 8 and I present the predictable landscape for me to consider for the next rounds.

We will see the end of the WR3s by the early 7th round and the end of the RB2s by early 6th round.
TEs and QBs are still fresh and ready to be picked if a bargain is spotted.

So in reality moving into the 5th round we find

QB
2/12
RB
17/24
WR
27/36
TE
3/12
FLX
2/12
DST
0/12
































I predicted (using the landscape data) we would arrive at the end of the 4th round having picked 
24 WRs 17 RBs 3 TEs and 3 QBs. 








Thus looking at our predictions vs reality we are right on track and I expect the next 4 rounds to be close to predicted in terms of positional patterns.

18 More WRs and 18 More RBs will be gone by the end of round 8!

My Team currently is below to the left. The slate of available players to consider is next. The TE and QBs are listed and arrows are by the one expected to be gone by the end of round 9



My debate now is TY Montgomery vs Bilal Powell  and J Edelman vs P Garcon. The pressure on drafters is to stay balanced. So a RB must be picked but the 2 WRs that I fancy will be gone. Also I am not happy with the TEs predicted to be left if I go late TE. I am happy with the Late QBs that I can chose from.

I am taking Greg Olsen to nail that position down. I will wait on RBs.

I am 13 picks away from my 6th pick. More later

My Team Currently




My 6th Round Pick is here for me. To me the safe pick is Powell.  But Jimmy Graham is still there as well. To seal my TE position and shake up this league I am going to take another TE.




My 7th Round Pick is in 8 selections and predicted players are shown below.
I will take any of these RBs of WRs as well. I think it's go time for another TEs




The above prediction were close to what player landscape I see below.

The left are the players after my TE 2X picks. I was hoping for Powell but not to be.  So we are unbalanced in my team. I am leaning to the Wide Receivers and I am passing on K BEN and focuses on the next 3. Each has issues. I love D Jax but he is not the show in TB with M Evans but if Evans is hurt D Jaxs would be worth double his value. I like Meredith as he is the main show at MIN. The safe pick is Meredith but the injury upside is DJAX. Given where I am in this draft, I chose to gamble and will take him. NOW!



13 Picks to my 8th pick.

My Team is shown to the left and it remains unbalanced.

I also show the players predicted to be on the board when its my selection. Stars are those players as of right now I have an interest in.

Lets see what the tides of fortune bring me!



Its my 8th pick and here are the list of Players available. Given my need for RB, my landscape data analysis for rounds 5 to 8, and the numbers of QBs taken, I was looking at Gore vs Prosise. I selected Prosise are a upside mover later in the season after Lacy grinds down! (Gamble vs Solid again). Gore was the safe pick here FYI



This is the resulting team.


I now approach rounds 9 to 12. Here is the predicted landscape. Here are the positional counts as well. I expect QBs and TEs to pick up and go past the first 12 of QB and TEs by round 11 or 12. I felt I had time to wait on a QB but the flood is coming and I may get caught. I need another RB and have my eye on one to draft.

Then I will turn to maybe take 2 QBs in R 10, 11 or 12. I may even take a TE as well. So My plan based on the landscape data etc is to go RB R9, QB/TE R10 and see whats up at R11. Remember DEFs will begin at R 14 so plenty of time there.  The WRs are ahead of schedule and RBs are behind. TEs are a little ahead and QBs are really behind.

QB
6/12
RB
24/24
WR
36/36
TE
8/12
FLX
12/12
DST
0/12







For my next pick I was watching and hoping for L Blount. Again I passed on Gore. I think in best ball he will have his weeks of high scores and is worth it in best ball here at this point.

Current Team 9 Picks to 10th Selection. (QB???)



Into my Pick 10 with 9 picks out, I predict these players are going to be out there and a QB/TE is building!





Only 9 QBs taken so far with 1 pick left until mine. So I will wait longer and turn to a high upside WRs J Doctson. The road warrior is all in on him in dynasty so its time to take him if possible.

I will take D Sproles if JD is taken. I hope not!

I took Josh Doctson and here is the team now.



The next pick for me is in 8 picks. FYI as predicted the QB TE storm is blowing up. Love my Landscape Analysis Folks - Wake-up in last 10

3 QBs are gone and 3 TEs in the last 14 picks. Myself and 3 others have not picked a QB.



So these are the players to look at in the next group I will have to choose from.

Here is my Current Team and was looking for D Sproles assuming the QB was stable!


Here was the picks after my JD Pick.  It was not a QB storm but a hurricane. I knew the winds had picked up. The landscape showed it but 5/8 are QBs. I was surprised! It left me in a bind. At the pick I could not let the draft pick for me. I was needed D Sproles to bind together with Blount to own 2/3 of the PHI RB game. I though they was going to be activity and given my RB weak drafting, I chose to remain on task and take D Sproles.


Here was the available RBs. Sproles was through and I pick him!


I was thinking to grab TT or BB next with the K Stills WR MIA being gone.
I want to own 2/3 of the Mia WRs






Next pick was up and I was debated QBs as K Stills was picked before my pick. I was the last league member to take a QB. Maybe I was too late! We will see.

Here is current Tracking and you see I am the 12th team with no QBs Again I was looking for Taylor or Bortles if K Stills was off the board.

You can see that Stills was draft 2 picks before me :( Sad. So QB for me.



Here is the slate of next player group. Lets see
Looks like a RB to take is going to be in play as well as some interesting WRs. Taylor was taken so was BB there. Yes so I added him at that point

The DEF storm is coming very soon. I must decide to go early or late DEF. I am open to who to add next. I have 8 picks to wait.

Lets see what is going to happen.

Here is my current team.

Here was the draft log after my QB pick. 2 more QBs off the board but I will resist back to back QBs

So the main group of Players. All Defenses are available except Denver FYI. Round 13 is a round before the Defenses are slated to roll. My debate is defense or another backup. I will take a DEF as my QBs were weaker than I would like and it will add pressure to others to take a defense. SEA Defense is my 12th selection.




Pick 13 with the end in sight. I will need at least 1 my QB and 1 DEF. Maybe 1 more TE. I will draft Ryan Mathews to lock up the PHI rushing passing show. I will be watching M Sanu and T Gabriel from ATL and DeA Washington RB Oak as well.

Given my weakness at QB I decided to take and lock up the DEF with the 3rd strongest DEF in the HOU Team.

The plan is to draft Seattle and Hou to get me in the top 3 each week in the league in DEF scoring to balance the QB scoring. I will most likely take 2 more QBs later.


The 14th Pick and I arrive here still with only 1 QB but I have bought that farm so onward to my watch list.
T Gabriel was gone but M Sanu is still there. If JJ is injured then this pick payoffs off for me. I was surprised he was still there. FYI was wishing Rawls was still around but no to be.

So I have 15 picks to go to my 16th pick. My journey was much different that I thought it would be. However, this post has inspired questions to ask about MFL 10s and the new MFL10 2X leagues!

I will have to add those articles on my research into my 2018 textbook. (see of course all my research in current textbook on sale )

FYI the textbook allows me to learn by research and getting it out keeps me from being lazy. Also I get to ask Dave Cherney about dynasty leagues as I have not really done well in those leagues.

Here is my last landscape view of MFL10s below.
Predictions are the TEs will reach 24 drafted by R16, Only 3 more QBs to be drafted by R18. (This inspired my to wait on my 2nd QB! right or wrong!) RBs will be into the 60th RB by R 17/18 and WR will reach into the 72th WR by then. DEFs will be 12 drafted by R18 so that storm will be me picking up QBs etc.

So R16 is where I may grab another RB/WR as to be R17. R18/19/20 I my take 1 or 2 QBs and maybe 1 more DEF or TE





Players on the menu for my next 2 picks! 


Pick 16 Discussion

The only downside in MFL10 that I have found is the question that happens at midnight when your pick is a one or two away and as a Sunday I have been know to sleep past 8 hours. The question is "what do you do given the clock only goes for 8 hrs?" 

Given the bind I felt in my QB position as Deshaun Watson got picked, I was forced to predraft pick 3 QBs and Alex Smith was the safest. If my pick was so available the next morning I would have selected in another position as I though Smith was not going to be drafted at all. 

Below is the draft picks before my pick. Remember the landscape suggests a DEF storm coming. 2 more were picked. A Smith was the predraft selection. :( 



Below is my current team coming into Pick 17 (4 more picks). I am going to draft a RB maybe 2, maybe a WR or TE or QB.






Pick 17 Discussion

The next picks are critical to finish strong. Below is the slate of available players and the list of drafted players. We see that the DEF storm is here 8 out of the last 20 picks were DEF. I predict this is the peak and the next 12 DEFs will be selected about 3 or 4 per round. 

Folks in the league will be needing to finish up their TE/QB/DEF game-plans



Here are the slate of players I am looking at.

FYI  I am using Fantasy Pros draft assistant as it helps me focus my thoughts but the ADP etc are not the MFL10s, close but not exact.

I am thinking Ryan Mathews as I have the other 2 pieces of the PHI RBs and will "lock that up".

I also think D Washington/R Burkhead are worth a flyer as well.

Finally my JAC RB handcuff is Yeldon and I could take him.

I thought a lot about this pick. I am going to gamble and take D Washington over J Richard from OAK


Pick 18 Discussion

My Current Team 
14 picks remaining to my Pick 18

I know of the next 3 picks at least one will be a QB.

So I have Yeldon and Mathews as RBs

I will also Consider as WRs those listed below as well.



I am going to do research on ArDarius Stewart NJY, Cooper Kupp LAR, Chris Godwin TB, Chad Williams ARI and Kenny Golladay at DET. I will use my time to dig alittle deeper.




Here are the draft picks going into my Pick 17 and 18. I went as stated ith D Washington as a longshot RB at OAK

The next pick 18 was a debated between Yeldon and Ryan Mathews. I chose Yeldon as I had 2/3 of the PHI BRs already and now had my CUFF.



Here is my current team through 18 picks!




I have 2 more picks to finish this up. The debate is an WR or R Mathews AT RB or one more QB

I favor R Mathews for a RB K Golladay as upside WR and Hoyer/Sieman/McCown as QBs

14 picks remaining.

Picks 19 and 20 Discussion

The end of draft is always tricky. Some player go upside other fill in team holes in MFL10s. Many have MFL10s rules. They must always draft 3 TEs or 3 DEFs etc. I try to focus on the big picture and not go so dogmatic in selections.

I selected K Golladay and B Hoyer as my last picks. I finally rejected R Mathews as I thought he might be off the team and Smallwood being the 3rd RB in the puzzle. Given the uncertainty, I passed on RM.

Below are the final league pick, not the DST and TE are being taken. Again do you stick to rules? Or Not? The pressure to pick like others say is the worst late in the draft. 


This is my team.



Final Thoughts

I used the MFL10s landscapes to visualize the draft flow. It helped me in formulating my selections. The QB position got away from me and my loss will most likely be associated with that position.

I think that I am average in my draft as to what currently is. I hope that what I envision for the season is close to what happens. If so, I have a shot at the top group in this league.

This is close to my ranks by position. if my QBs can be average then I could be fine.
I think the RB position will be the most volatile and could dramatically alter my team's fate.


Here is the projected rankings of the teams in this MFL10.

Good Job David G and @joeagresti!

Thanks to all league members as well! We finished drafting in good time!

I will update at the close of the season!

I enjoyed this process and it has inspired research questions for my 2018 drafting textbook as I hope to have more MFL10 chapters there next year.



FYI 


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